Global Ag News For Sept 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s Role in Driving Global Beef Market Hit by Economic Woes

Beef demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, is set to decline for a second straight year in 2026, as a slowing economy squeezes household income.

Behind only the US, China’s consumption this year is projected at 11.17 million tons, down 3% from a year ago, and will drop further next year to 11.04 million tons, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Once the driving force behind global beef demand thanks to its expanding middle class, China now appears to be losing momentum as economic pressures weigh on its consumers and reshape the country’s appetite for premium proteins.

Consumers are likely to curb discretionary spending, especially on pricier meats, and opt for cheaper alternatives like poultry and pork, the FAS report said. Meanwhile, the central government’s crackdown on lavish official banquets would also likely dampen demand, it added.

Still, China’s beef imports in the new year are seen rising slightly due to a drop in domestic output as some producers exit following sustained losses, according to the FAS report.

The FAS contributes to the USDA’s official estimates, which currently pegs China’s 2025 beef consumption at 11.55 million tons.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 0.06.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.36.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 19 1/2; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil down 0.61.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.1% in SRW, down 12.0% in HRW, down 6.7% in HRS; Corn is down 12.3%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 7.4%; Soyoil up 27.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil up 10; Palm oil up 32; Corn down 11 — Malaysian Palm is down 7.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 7 ringgit (-0.16%) at 4481.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 160 Oats; 0 Corn; 237 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 97 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 8 were: SRW Wheat up 600 contracts, HRW Wheat up 929, Corn up 2,543, Soybeans down 223, Soymeal up 4,441, Soyoil up 7,444.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 09 SEPTEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The recent EC Sub-seasonal forecast indicates warm and dry conditions across most of Midwest through the next 4 weeks, favorable for the spring crop harvest
• SOUTH AMERICA: SMAP data suggests soil moisture levels at relatively high level in Central West Brazil as the dry season concludes
• SOUTH ASIA: Wheat areas in Northwest India received ample rainfall over the last week which supports water storage ahead of the season
• EAST ASIA: Continuation of heavy rains in East China over the next 10 days will increase flood risks and impact spring crop harvests
• TROPICS: Disturbance in the Central Atlantic has dissipated, and no tropical activity is expected in Central America or the Southeast U.S.

 

SOUTHERN BRAZIL TO TURN DRIER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT

What to Watch:

• Dry pattern ahead for much of Brazil
• Short-term warm and dry weather in Argentina

 

 Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal north and near to below normal south Friday. 

Argentina:  Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.  

Midwest West: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers north Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 9/8 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 tons of crude sunflower oil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tons of soft milling wheat.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.443m Tons of Corn for Export, 452k of Soybeans

In week ending Sept. 4, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 425k tons vs 804k the previous wk, 621k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 452k tons vs 491k the previous wk, 365k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,443k tons vs 1,410k the previous wk, 850k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Sept. 4

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Sept. 4 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 135k tons of the 452k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Korea Rep led in wheat

 

Ukraine Soybean, Rapeseed Exports Grind to Halt on Law Confusion

Ukrainian exports of soybeans and rapeseed have almost completely come to a halt after a new law has sparked uncertainty over shipping procedures.

“As of Sept. 5, exports have been completely halted,” the food producers union Ukrainian Agri Council said on its website. The bill, passed by Ukraine’s parliament in July and signed by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week, slapped a 10% duty on exports of the two oilseed crops — unless they’re sold directly by producers.

“The problem lies in the lack of a clear procedure for documenting the origin of products,” the lobby said. Ships waiting in the nation’s ports contain products both from commodity producers and traders, with no mechanism in place to identify goods that should be exempted from the levy.

The bill is meant to bolster budget revenues after finances have been under pressure due to years of war with Russia. Ukraine is a major producer of the oilseed crops, exporting to European Union countries and a number of global buyers.

 

Ukraine plans to increase 2026 winter grain sowing area to 5.43 million hectares, says ministry

Ukraine plans to increase its 2026 winter grain sowing area to 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 million hectares in 2025, the economy ministry said on Tuesday.

The ministry said the area under winter wheat could rise to 4.78 million hectares from 4.5 million hectares in 2025.

 

Brazil Starts Seeding of 2025/26 Soybean Crop: AgRural

Seeding has started in some areas of Parana state, covering 0.02% of the estimated planted area, consulting firm AgRural says in an emailed statement.

• Seeding hadn’t yet started at this time last year
• Seeding of the 2025/26 summer corn crop was 12% done as of Sept. 4, compared with 7% a week earlier and 15% last year

 

US Farm Trade Deficit Widens to New Record as Imports Surge

The US agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenge facing President Donald Trump as he vows to reverse the trend.

Agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month. That pushed the sector’s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year, according to data released Monday by the US Department of Agriculture.

The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit. That further cements a shift that has been building since the president’s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer.

The change in fortunes comes as a result of limited capacity to expand crop and livestock production, increased competition overseas and Americans’ growing appetite for imported goods. Trump’s trade wars have also played a role, pushing China — the world’s largest crop importer — to rely more heavily on Brazil for its supplies. The US is also processing more of its crops domestically to produce biofuel, reducing exportable surpluses.

The US imported more than $132 billion in agricultural goods in the first seven months of 2025, almost 8% more than a year earlier. Meanwhile, the sector’s exports slid 1.3% to $98.8 billion, according to USDA data.

A sweeping new round of US tariffs officially took hold in August, adding to baseline rates imposed in April.

 

House Lawmakers Vote to Extend Federal Grain Inspection Funding

House lawmakers passed a bill (H.R. 4550) undergirding the US Agriculture Department’s quality control of the grain industry by voice vote on Monday.

• Legislation would provide department’s Federal Grain Inspection Service with funding access through end of fiscal year 2030
• Senate Agriculture Committee deliberated funding measure for service’s oversight of grains and oilseeds in July but has yet to approve the legislation
• “Reauthorizing the U.S. Grain Standards Act is vital to the continued success of U.S. soy in global markets. Even as our exports face renewed tariff pressures, the integrity of our grain inspection system helps keep U.S. soy competitive worldwide,” American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland said in a statement

 

Russia Has Harvested 105m Tons of Grain, Maintains Forecast: IFX

Russia has harvested almost 105m tons of grain as of today, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev says, according to Interfax.

• Russia maintains 2025 grain forecast at 135m tons

 

SovEcon Ups Russia Wheat Forecast on Yields in Volga Valley

Russia’s wheat production is expected to reach 86.1m tons in the 2025-26 season, an increase from the 85.4m tons forecast on August 20, according to agriculture consultancy SovEcon.

• New data shows the largest upward revision in the Volga Valley, up 0.7m tons to 20.2m tons
• That reflects “strong spring wheat yields,” says SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov
• The estimate for the Central region has been raised slightly to 21.6m tons
• The Southern crop estimate was cut by 0.2m tons to 30.9m tons due to a smaller harvested area
• “For the first time since 2015, Rostov will not be Russia’s top wheat-producing region. Prolonged unfavorable weather since early 2024 has cut its output to an estimated 7.6m tons. Stavropol is expected to become Russia’s leading wheat producer for the first time since 2013, with production estimated at 8.2m tons”: Sizov

 

Beijing Dabeinong Unit Approved by Argentina to Grow Soybeans

A subsidiary of Beijing Dabeinong has been approved by Argentine authorities to grow genetically-modified soybeans in the country, according to the company in a filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

• Co. needs approval before it can sell soybeans in Argentina

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: International prices are attractive; imports increase

Wheat imports continue to move at a good pace. In spite of the decrease in August/25 (against July/25 and August/24), the volume purchased in the accumulated of 2025 (from January to August) is the highest since 2017. Attractive international prices have been encouraging wheat mills in Brazil to increase acquisitions, especially from neighboring countries.

According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 493.23 thousand tons of wheat in August, 20% smaller than in July/25 and downing 9.5% compared to the same month last year. In the accumulated of the last 12 months (from Sept/24 to Aug/25), the volume is at 6.77 million tons, 13.5% above that verified in the same period of 2024. In 2025, Brazil already imported 4.68 million tons, upping 2.7% compared to 2024.

Argentina continues as the major supplier to Brazil, responsible for 94.4% of purchases in August/25 (465.61 thousand tons). Paraguay accounted for 5.6% (27.54 thousand tons).

The average price of imports was at USD 231.82 per ton in August, the lowest since February/25. Considering the average of the US dollar, at BRL 5.446, the value is equivalent to BRL 1,262.52/ton, which is competitive for wheat mills. Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between August 25 and 29, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 249.46/ton (BRL 1,352.94/ton), while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,409.13/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 233.48/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,266.26/ton – against BRL 1,284.35/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

Up to August 30, the harvesting was at 87% of the total in Goiás, 80% in Minas Gerais, 52% in Mato Grosso do Sul and at 2% in Paraná, accounting for 9.1% of the national area, according to Conab.

According to data from Cepea, between August 29 and September 5, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 0.66% in Rio Grande do Sul, 4.27% in São Paulo, 0.86% in Paraná and 1.1% in Santa Catarina. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.22% in Santa Catarina and 0.1% in Rio Grande do Sul, but downed 0.12% in Paraná. The US dollar dropped 0.13% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.413 on Sept. 5.

 

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 9% Above Normal as of Sept. 8

India has so far received 819.8 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 754.5 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Sept. 8.

• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 37% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 20% below normal rains

 

 

 

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