Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
A quieter day in London, which was wet again today, as prices resumed their slip further into the red. Volumes were fairly thin on the ground across all traded London wheat contracts, with the Nov-27 London contract trading down to £190.
The main culprit for the fall, the Chicago wheat contract, extended its fall to a new one-week low today as expectations of bumper supplies continued to weigh on sentiment. Wheat prices are facing renewed headwinds amid higher production forecasts in major exporting countries, in addition to expected rainfall across the U.S. winter wheat-growing areas in the coming days.
Down under, Australia is reportedly on track to produce between 32 mmt and 35 mmt of wheat in its upcoming harvest. Estimates were raised in the forecast after an improvement in crop conditions, as analysts stated they could further upgrade their figures given the expected growing conditions to come.
Across in Europe, it was reported today that France’s wheat exports to destinations outside the EU should rebound steeply in 2025/26 from last season’s low. However, the country could still face its biggest stockpile in 21 years, owing to the prospect of prices holding below production costs halting many producers from selling. As the European Union’s biggest grain producer, France has just completed its harvest for this year, which analysts estimate to be around 33.4 mmt, up 30% from a rain-drenched crop of 2024. The poor previous harvest had contributed to the lowest non-EU exports this century in 2024/25 at 3.5 mmt.
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