Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
After a hiatus yesterday, trading on London wheat came back with a small bang today, trading across the Nov-25, May-26 and Nov-26 contracts. Each of the traded contracts were eager to go higher, following a fairly lacklustre Matif and Chicago wheat price improvement.
News today from the European Union as it reported its soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season had reached 2.18 mmt (as of August 24). This figure is down 48% on a year earlier, although importantly the absence of figures for top producer France continues to distort the data. The Commission said grain export data for France was incomplete from the beginning of calendar year 2024 and missing for marketing year 2025/26, which leaves the published data somewhat patchy given France’s top grain exporting position.
Further west, Russia’s IKAR consultancy has today reportedly raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 86.0 mmt, up from the 85.5 mmt the consultancy had previously announced. It said it had also raised its wheat export forecast to 43.0 mmt, up from 42.5 mmt. The reason for the amendment was reportedly due to higher yields in the Central and Volga regions, as stated by the consultancy.
In US markets, Chicago wheat futures were seen to tick up as the USDA showed a slight drop in spring wheat ratings in a weekly crop report. The USDA rated 49% of the U.S. crop in good to excellent condition, which is down from 50% a week ago. It was also reported that the country’s spring wheat harvesting was 53% complete, up from 36% a week ago.
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