Global Ag News For Sept 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Renewable Fuels Association Calls for Nationwide E15 Following WASDE

The Renewable Fuels Association says that the September WASDE report from the USDA underscores the need for more ethanol production in the U.S.–with the USDA now projecting even more corn to be produced by farmers this year. “The supply of corn following this year’s harvest is expected to significantly overwhelm demand, leaving 2.1 billion bushels of surplus,” the RFA says. “This report again underscores the urgent need to quickly open and expand markets for corn, including removing unnecessary barriers that constrain market opportunities for ethanol.” The RFA says that allowing E15 -or motor vehicle fuel cut with 15% ethanol- would help offset the huge surplus. CBOT corn is up 0.2% in afternoon trading, this after initially falling on the report’s release.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil up 0.19.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil up 0.70.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans down 12 3/4; Soymeal down $2.90; Soyoil up 0.22.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.3% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 4.0% in HRS; Corn is down 7.2%; Soybeans up 4.3%; Soymeal down 7.3%; Soyoil up 29.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 14 yuan; Soymeal down 36; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil up 28; Corn down 21 — Malaysian Palm is down 9.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 9 ringgit (-0.20%) at 4445.

There were changes in registrations (-10 Soybeans, -49 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 155 Oats; 154 Corn; 184 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 48 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 12 were: SRW Wheat down 2,305 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,992, Corn up 22,325, Soybeans up 2,351, Soymeal up 1,303, Soyoil up 12,305.

 

WET SPELLS DELAY CORN AND SOYBEAN HARVESTS ACROSS KEY U.S. REGIONS

What to Watch:

• Heat risks in most of the U.S
• Wet spells in the North Plains and West

Cool weather, with temperatures 1-9 °F below normal, prevailed across most of the U.S. during the past week, while warmer conditions were confined to the western region. The dry conditions (5-30 mm below normal) were observed across the U.S. during the past week. Dry weather may favor corn/soybeans harvesting across the Plains and Midwest regions.

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain moved through the region over the weekend while temperatures increased. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas of showers moved through over the weekend while temperatures increased where showers did not occur. Some areas of heavy rain pushed back the drydown of corn and soybeans while other areas found the rainfall favorable. Rainfall in the southwest favored planting of winter wheat and establishment. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week and should push south and east out of the area this weekend.

Midwest: Temperatures increased over the weekend. A streak of showers developed from central Minnesota arcing down through Indiana, but much of that rainfall is too late for being beneficial for corn and soybeans that are on the path to maturity and harvest. Isolated showers continue over western areas early-mid week. Those showers will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

Delta: It was largely hot and dry over the weekend, which allowed water levels on the Mississippi River to continue falling. Very little precipitation for most of this week will continue that trend. A system will be slow to move through across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system.

Brazil: Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A front moving through Sunday and Monday is producing some more rainfall for these areas, but should lose its rainfall as it moves northward. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October.

Argentina: Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it in the middle of this week, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

Europe: Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of the continent over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though.

Black Sea: Showers fell across far western Ukraine over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry and fairly warm. While the warmth is fine, the region needs a lot of rainfall for planting winter wheat. A system will slowly move through the region this week and have increased its rainfall, but it does not look to provide a whole lot of needed rainfall. Dry weather is forecast afterward as well.

Australia: A system moved through western areas with some rainfall over the weekend and will move through eastern areas with needed rainfall early this week. Not all areas will receive the rainfall they need, but it will be welcome regardless. A system that only scrapes western areas midweek should provide more beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas.

China: Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China lately. Those with corn and soybeans would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas with drier conditions in the northeast.

 

The player sheet for 9/12 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 16,500 corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• PROVISIONAL SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally purchased about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil in an international tender for that volume.
• SOYBEAN OIL SALES: Exporters sold 22,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil to South Korea for 2025/2026 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said via its daily reporting system.
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender to buy up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn on Friday.
• TIMING OF U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORT SALE UPDATED: A U.S. soybean export sale to China that was included in weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture data on Thursday reflected an export transaction that occurred in January, the USDA confirmed to Reuters in an email on Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA sets October launch dates for new grain export sales reporting system

The U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to roll out an upgraded system for its agricultural export sales reporting program on October 23, and the first weekly sales report using the new system is scheduled for October 30, the agency said in an emailed statement.

Exporters are required by law to report sales of U.S. agricultural commodities to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, which reports weekly export sales each Thursday.

The launch of the new system follows a failed roll-out in 2022 that delayed export sales reports for three weeks.

 

Growth pace of Brazil grain, oilseed output to slow in new season, analysts say

Brazilian farmers are not expected to boost soy and corn production in the new season by as much as in previous ones, analysts told Reuters, even as they expect benevolent weather throughout the coming months.

According to market observers, there is less room to increase Brazil’s agricultural commodities output due to factors such as rising costs and high interest rates, which could, for example, constrain the growth of the soy area in the world’s largest producer and exporter of oilseed.

In 2024/25, local farmers reaped a record 350.2 million metric tons of soy, corn and other minor crops, nearly 50 million tons more than in the previous one, when crops failed due to adverse weather events.

But that performance is not likely to be repeated.

“Our numbers for next year are… in the range of 358 to 360 million tons,” said Carlos Cogo, a seasoned consultant. “This would mark a much more moderate percentage increase than the current growth.”

In recent seasons, Brazil’s annual grain and oilseed production growth ranged between 46.4 million and 51.75 million tons.

Even so, consultancy StoneX predicts a 2% growth in Brazil’s soybean planted area in 2025/26, with total output reaching a new record of 178.2 million tons, reflecting better yields in southern Brazil thanks to expectations of a weak La Niña weather pattern.

For Safras & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira, even if soy farmers invest less in seeds and other inputs to lower costs, soy yields should hold steady.

Safras pegged Brazil’s 2025/26 soy production at 180.9 million tons, a 5.3% increase over the previous year.

Between soy and corn, analysts say farmers are more likely to grow production of latter, responding to appetite from meatpackers and ethanol producers.

“Domestic demand for corn has been exceeding supply… This has been consuming inventory,” Cogo said, noting that farmers’ margins on corn exceeded those of soybeans. “Corn is driving this whole story.”

 

India’s August palm oil imports hit 1-year high on festive demand, price advantage

• Palm oil imports rise 15.8% m/m to 990,528 tons
• Soyoil imports fall 25.3% m/m to 367,917 tons
• Sunflower oil imports rise 28.5% m/m to 257,080 tons

India’s palm oil imports jumped in August to their highest level in more than a year, as competitive pricing relative to soyoil prompted refiners to step up purchases ahead of the festive season, a leading trade body said on Monday.

Higher palm oil imports by India, the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oils, are expected to help top producers Indonesia and Malaysia reduce inventories and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

India’s palm oil imports in August rose 15.76% to 990,528 metric tons, reaching their highest point since July 2024, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said.

Imports of soyoil decreased 25.27% to 367,917 tons, the lowest level in four months, and sunflower oil imports rose 28.53% to a seven-month high of 257,080 tons, the industry trade body said.

In August, India imported 6,000 tons of canola oil for the first time in nearly five years, the SEA said.

Higher imports of palm oil and sunflower oil lifted India’s total edible oil imports in August by 4.7% to 1.62 million tons month-on-month, the highest level since July 2024, the SEA said.

Refiners are gearing up for the upcoming festive season, and imports are expected to stay above 800,000 tons in September, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

Demand for edible oil, particularly palm oil, in India typically rises during the festival season due to increased consumption of sweets and fried foods.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

India imported 589,283 tons of duty-free edible oils from Nepal in the first nine months of the marketing year ending October, under a regional trade pact, the SEA said.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Production increases in 2024/25; prices move up

Although estimates indicate an increase in the 2024/25 Brazilian crop, corn prices continue to move up in many areas surveyed by Cepea. The firm domestic demand and the fact that sellers have been limiting the volume available explain price rises.

Purchasers are active in the spot market, but many of them avoid closing trades involving large volumes, focused on the high national output and on exports, which are still below the performance verified in the season before and may continue to move at a slow pace due to the beginning of the harvesting in the United States. Moreover, the 2025/26 crop in the South has begun satisfactorily.

As for sellers, since the second crop has practically finished, many of them are refrained from closing trades, in general.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices increased only 0.4% between September 4 and 11, to close at BRL 64.97 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 11. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values rose 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Share of soy oil in industry profits hits a record

The participation of soybean oil in profits of the crushing industry has become practically the same as that observed for soy meal this week, a historical scenario. This is related to the increase of the demand for the national soybean oil, especially from the biodiesel sector.

The competition for the product has increased over the last days, since biodiesel companies boosted acquisitions in the domestic market. This segment has better negotiating power compared to the food industry due to tax advantages, such as the ICMS exemption.

The Brazilian value of soy oil upped 3.4% between September 4 and 11, at BRL 7,531.65 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on September 11, the highest since November 18 last year, in nominal terms.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal increased 0.6% over the last seven days.

Thus, the participation of soybean meal in the industry margin was at 51% on September 11, and of soy oil, 49% – as a comparison, the average share of soy meal last year was at 62.2% and of soybean oil, 37.8%, considering prices of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal in São Paulo state.

According to data from Conab, the domestic consumption of byproducts may hit a record in 2025. As for soybean oil, the consumption is likely to reach 10.5 million tons (+6.4% compared to the report released in August) and for soy meal, 19.5 million tons (+0.7%).

Soybean oil exports may grow in 2025, totaling 1.4 million tons (+2.4% compared to the previous estimate). From this amount, 75.3% had been shipped up to August, according to data from Secex. As for soybean meal, exports are likely to hit 23.6 million tons; however, only 65.2% of this volume had been sold to the international market until August.

 

China Buys 100m Tons of Wheat as Summer Harvest Ends

China has purchased over 100m tons of wheat from grain enterprises, according to the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration in a statement.

The procurement process has been smooth with major wheat-producing regions such as Henan, Anhui, Hebei implementing the minimum-purchase-price policy

 

China Halves Corn Import Estimate to 3 Million Tons in 2024-25

China drastically cut its estimate for corn imports this year to the lowest level in eight years, as a trade dispute with the US reduced inbound shipments.

• The Asian nation is seen buying 3 million tons of corn in the year ending in September, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a monthly report, down sharply from its estimate of 7 million tons a month earlier
• The change in projection is due to import quotas in place and the US imposing unfair tariffs, the ministry said in its China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report
• NOTE: China imposed tariffs on a list of US agricultural products, including corn, in March in response to similar measures from Washington. The two countries later struck a truce and averted higher duties, but the previous taxes remained in place
• China hasn’t booked any US corn cargoes for the current and new marketing years, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture
• The Chinese ministry maintained its forecast for corn imports at 7 million tons in 2025-26
• Soybean import estimates were raised to 104 million tons in 2024-25 as improved crushing margins pushed up demand

 

Taiwan Sent Delegation to US for Potential Soy, Beef Procurement

Taiwan’s agriculture trade delegation has departed to the US and will sign letter of intent for products procurement, according to a statement by Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday.

• NOTE: On Friday, Taiwan Says Trade Talks With US Have Seen ‘Some Progress’
• Delegation scheduled to stay in the US from Sept. 14 to 27：MOFA
• Members will first visit Washington, and then divide into three groups to visit states that produce soybeans and corn, wheat and beef
• Taiwan aims to combine strengths of public and private sectors to promote bilateral agricultural cooperation, and further deepen the Taiwan-US economic, trade and food security partnership

 

Egypt grains buyer Mostakbal Misr books six vegoil shipments, including from Russia, Ukraine

Egypt’s state grains buyer Mostakbal Misr told Reuters on Monday it booked six vegetable oil shipments of over 74,000 metric tons from Black Sea countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania.

The agency said it also agreed with international suppliers to buy over 600,000 tons of wheat, mostly from Black Sea countries as well as France, for delivery in September and October.

The agency, known officially as Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development, didn’t provide specific dates for shipments, or the details of suppliers or prices.

The North African nation is one of the world’s top wheat importers. On average, state agencies bring in about 5 million tons of the country’s total wheat imports of more than 12 million tons.

Wheat bought by the government is used to produce subsidised bread for more than two-thirds of Egypt’s 108 million people, who are already struggling with high inflation and worsening living conditions. The country failed to reach its 4 million-5 million ton target for domestic wheat purchases for the 2024/25 season.

Egypt’s wheat imports have dropped by 30% to 4.9 million tons in the first half of the year. These include imports by the state buyer as well as the private sector.

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 40% Y/y So Far This Season

Ukraine has exported 5.2m tons of grain and legumes since the season started on July 1, compared with 8.6m tons at a similar time last year, the agriculture ministry said on its website.

• Total includes:
  • 3.55m tons of wheat, down 24% y/y
  • 692,000 tons of barley, down 40% y/y
  • 891,000 tons of corn, down 64% y/y
• Ukrainian farmers have already harvested 29.15m tons of early grains and legumes as of Friday, according to a statement on the economy ministry’s website
• That’s slightly below the 30m tons collected at a similar time last year
• Grain collected from 7m hectares, or 62% of the total area to be harvested
• The total includes 22.2m tons of wheat versus 21.8m tons last year
• Sunflower seed harvest has reached 885,300 tons vs almost 3m tons in the same period last year

 

Canada had constructive talks with China over canola dispute, Ottawa says

Canadian officials had constructive talks with their Chinese counterparts about Beijing’s duties on canola during a recent visit, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office said in a statement on Friday.

China, the world’s largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed imports in August. A final ruling will not come until next year.

The delegation, led by the premier of the major grain-growing Canadian province of Saskatchewan, also included Kody Blois, a legislator who advises Carney on agriculture. It was in China from September 6-9.

The officials discussed “several trade irritants, including duties imposed on imports of canola products from Canada. The delegation had constructive discussions to these ends with Chinese officials,” said the statement.

“The visit paves the way for further constructive engagement with Chinese counterparts to find pragmatic solutions to shared trade concerns.”

Carney said last week that he and other senior ministers would work to resolve the dispute. Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola, shipped almost C$5 billion ($3.63 billion) of canola products to China in 2024.

 

Brazil Cleared to Export Beef Tallow to Singapore

Brazil has received authorization from Singaporean health authorities to export beef tallow for industrial use to the country, according to a joint statement from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Agriculture and Livestock.

• Product could be used for biofuel production
• In 2024, Brazil exported more than $680 million in agricultural products to Singapore

 

 

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