Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US Midwest is mostly dry with above normal temps. There is talk that the Midwest blocking pattern may break down with better rains for west Midwest this week and east early next week. Good US exports, higher soybean crush and some better US and China relations helped support grains and soybean prices. US Central Bank is expected to drop rates 25 basis points this week. US stocks are slightly higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher at $63.18. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.49. Key resistance is 10.50. August NOPA crush was 190.0 mil bu vs 158.0 ly. USDA Soyoil stocks dropped to 1,245 mil lbs. India August vegoil imports were up 4 pct at 1,615 mt. Combination of higher India imports and lower US NOPA stocks is helping soyoil futures. USDA dropped US G/E 1 pct to IL 50 vs 54 last week, IN 58 vs 60, OH 44 vs 46, IA 75 vs 76, AR 58 vs 61. Harvest is 5 pct. US soybean exports were good at 29.5 mil bu. Season to date exports are 39.2 vs 27.4 ly.
CORN
CZ is near 4.26. Key resistance is 4.35. US corn futures are defying gravity but have rallied 34 cents from August low. Prices are still below farmer breakeven. Some look at good US exports and dry August as why prices have rallied. USDA dropped US G/E 1 pct to 67. IL 54 vs 53, IN 58 vs 60, OH 46 vs 46, IA 79 vs 80 and NE 78 vs 76. US harvest is 7 pct with 7 day Midwest weather warm and mostly dry in east rains in west and N plains. US exports were solid at 59.5 mil bu. Season to date exports are 85.0 mil b vs 41.2 last year. USDA announced 149 mt US corn to unknown. S/C Brazil corn planting near 17 pct. Export prices lower to be in line with other origins.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.28. WZ range 4.90-5.40. KWZ is near 5.17. MWZ is near 5.72. US wheat exports were also solid at 27.7 mil bu. Season to date exports are 288.6 mil bu and up 12 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9. US S plains should see some showers. USDA est winter wheat plantings at 11 pct. Australia dollar is at 2025 highs and weighing on wheat prices. Lower Argentina peso is offering resistance to Argentina wheat prices. Matif wheat futures held support in part due to 4 vessels to load to Morocco. Black Sea prices motionless with talk of higher production offering resistance.
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