Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed near new highs. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Coffee lower on talk of lower tariffs. Congress set to fight for new spending bill. Current funding expires Oct 1. House vote delayed. President Trump and XI will talk today. US rains in SD, E IA and MN.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.42. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were higher. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 330 mil bu and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. This leaves final exports key to price action. US soybean export commit is down 35 pct vs ly and USDA down 9. Conab est 2026 soybean crop at 177.6 mmt vs USDA 175. Exports 112.0 with USDA also 112.0 One group wants farmers to sell 10.90-11.00 SH26. S&P Global est fall soybean futures near 9.30, soymeal 254 and soyoil 49.40. Australia announced plans to start domestic biofuel production which could reduce canola exports.
CORN
CZ is near 4.25. US export prices remain competitive vs SA nearby prices. Dalian corn futures were lower. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 1,375 mil bu vs USDA 1,325 and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. This leaves final exports key to price action. US corn export commit is up 65 pct vs ly and USDA up 5. USDA announced 110 mt US corn to Mexico. China imports only 880 mt and down 93 pct vs ly. Conab est Brazil 2026 corn crop at 138 mmt vs USDA 131. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. S&P Global est Fall corn futures near 3.60.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.24. WZ range 4.90-5.40. KWZ is near 5.10. MWZ is near 5.72. Argentina wheat crop could be 20 mmt vs 18.6 ly. EU wheat crop could be 143.8 mmt vs USDA 140.1. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est. Stocks should be near 2,135 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. US wheat export commit is up 20 pct vs ly and USDA up 3. China wheat imports 980 mt vs 2.4 ly. IGC increased World wheat crop 8 mmt, Australia 3.3, Russia 1.3, Canada 1.4 and Germany 1.6. They also increased use 8 mmt. S&P Global est Fall Chicago wheat futures near 5.39.
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