Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Congress set to fight for new spending bill. Current funding expires Oct 1. US rains in MO, NE and KS. SA weather is favorable for crops. Powell speaks today. Trump speaks at UN assembly.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.06. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were sharply lower. Board crush dropped to 152 on news Argentina dropped export tax to zero. USDA est US soybean harvest at 9 pct. Crop was rated 61 pct G/E, down 2 from last week. One crop watcher lowered his est of US soybean yield .5 bpa to 52. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 330 mil bu and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. US soybean exports are up 26 pct vs ly and USDA down 1 pct. Argentina sod 10 soybean cargoes to China.
CORN
CZ is near 4.20. Dalian corn futures are at new lows. Record US crop could weigh on prices through harvest. US export prices remain competitive vs SA nearby prices. USDA announced 320 mmt US corn to Mexico. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 1,375 mil bu vs USDA 1,325 and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. USDA rated US corn crop 66 pct G/E, down 1 from last week. 56 pct crop is mature. Harvest is 11 pct. One crop watcher lowered his est of US corn yield 2 bpa to 182. Ukraine July-Sep corn exports only 900 mt vs 2.7 ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.09. WZ testing lower end of 4.90-5.40 range. KWZ is near 5.00. Trading overnight below 5.00. MWZ is near 5.64. Some feel USDA may not be done in increasing Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU crops. Major wheat exports could see a 22-24 mmt increase in crops vs last year. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est. Stocks should be near 2,135 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. US wheat exports are up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. US spring wheat harvest is 97 pct. 20 pct of US 2026 winter wheat crop is planted vs 23 ly and average.
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