Global Ag News For Sept 25.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil importing more Argentina wheat after export tax exemption

Brazilian imports of Argentine wheat are poised to increase following a measure by President Javier Milei’s government to suspend export taxes on grains and byproducts, according to analysts and industry sources.

Argentina is Brazil’s biggest wheat supplier, as its own harvest does not cover domestic demand.

From January to August, imports from the neighboring country totaled 3.66 million metric tons, out of a total of 4.68 million tons from all sources, according to Brazilian government data.

The volume imported from Argentina by Brazil grew 24% compared with the same period last year, reaching the highest annual level through August since 2021.

“With the tax reduction, the tendency is to increase purchases from Argentina at the expense of other countries,” said Flavio Turra, manager at the Organization of Cooperatives of Parana (Ocepar). “For domestic wheat producers, the impact should be negative, as prices have remained close to import parity.”

Parana state is Brazil’s second largest wheat producer.

Argentina’s 9.5% wheat export tax was temporarily eliminated by the Milei administration in a bid to boost foreign currency reserves.

The tax exemption also boosted Chinese purchases of Argentine soybeans.

Rubens Barbosa, head of the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo), said, “Argentine wheat is currently the cheapest, and we are seeing increasing purchases by Brazil from Argentina in recent months.”

For Carlos Godinho, a specialist at Parana state’s rural agency Deral, Argentina’s tax exemption is depressing Brazilian wheat prices amid ample global supplies.

Wheat prices in Parana fell more than 9% in the month to 1,275 reais per ton, according to data from the Cepea research center.

A wheat purchasing manager at a large mill in Sao Paulo, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said prices had fallen between $2 and $3 per ton in Argentina since the announcement.

The executive added that Argentina’s tax measure is a “disaster” for Brazilian farmers, as it comes at harvest time.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.54.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 11 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans down 12; Soymeal down $7.20; Soyoil down 0.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 12 1/4 in SRW, down 10 1/4 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 39 1/4; Soymeal down $12.20; Soyoil down 1.76.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.3% in SRW, down 9.0% in HRW, down 2.9% in HRS; Corn is down 7.2%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 11.7%; Soyoil up 24.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 40 yuan; Soymeal up 39; Soyoil up 84; Palm oil up 136; Corn up 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 65.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 65 ringgit (+1.48%) at 4444.

 

There were changes in registrations (-16 Oats, -11 Corn). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 45 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 24 were: SRW Wheat down 5,686 contracts, HRW Wheat down 248, Corn down 5,812, Soybeans up 2,974, Soymeal up 3,879, Soyoil up 5,447.

 

Northern Plains: Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavy rain moved into the region over the last couple of days and some showers continue on Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely to follow through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

Midwest: Scattered showers continue in the region through Thursday as a system moves through the south and east. The recent and forecast rainfall are likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and most of next week will promote harvest.

Delta: Scattered showers have increased across the region and some areas of heavy rain have fallen across teh very dry north. Showers continue with a front moving through Wednesday into Thursday. That will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River, or at least stop its decline. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

Brazil: A cold front remains stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais through Thursday before it fizzles out. It has already produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in some areas. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to secure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

Argentina: Though some cooler temperatures moved in early this week, soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

Europe: A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of the continent for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

Black Sea: Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment, though conditions are good for fieldwork.

Australia: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may have had an impact on reproductive wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, with only limited showers for southeastern areas.

China: Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in the northeast are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

 

The player sheet for 9/24 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• USDA CORRECTS PREVIOUS SALE ANNOUNCEMENT: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday issued a correction to an export sales report it released on September 22. Exporters sold 312,956 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for 2025/2026 delivery, USDA said. Previously, the agency said exporters sold 320,068 metric tons.
• SOYMEAL SALE: Exporters sold 101,400 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal for delivery Guatemala for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, USDA said Wednesday.
• U.S. WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 120,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender on Wednesday
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Tuesday bought about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender seeking 200,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on September 15.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is September 30.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 18.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,383k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 950k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 3.8% to 23.468M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.462 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.024m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.039m

 

Argentina reapplies export taxes on grains and by-products

Argentina has reapplied temporarily suspended export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as beef and poultry, after reaching a sales cap of $7 billion, Argentina’s ARCA fiscal agency said on Wednesday in a post on social media.

On Monday, the government issued a decree suspending export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and their by-products, including biodiesel, aiming to accelerate sales abroad and secure much-needed dollars to stabilize the flagging peso currency.

Argentina, one of the world’s top grains suppliers, relies on the agricultural sector to generate foreign currency.

The suspension was set to last through the end of October, or until declared exports reached $7 billion. Exports reached the sales limit after two days.

 

Argentina Farmers Sold About 1.2m Tons of Soy Tuesday: Bourse

Farmers sold 1.2m metric tons on Tuesday and locked in prices on another 140,000 tons that they’d previously traded, according to a Buenos Aires Grain Exchange breakdown of official data.

• On Monday, they sold about 400,000 tons and priced another 81,000
• The flood of sales comes after President Javier Milei scrapped export tariffs until Oct. 31

 

Argentina Grain Exporters Rush $4.2B FX Sales: Govt

Argentina’s grain exporters declared nearly $4.2b in shipments to be sold in the foreign exchange market, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• NOTE: Exporters accelerated sales proceedings after the government scrapped grain export taxes through Oct. 31
• Exporters must sell 90% of these exports in the FX market within three days to qualify for the tax relief
• NOTE: The surge in dollar sales has fueled a rally in the peso since Monday

 

China Buys More Argentine Soybeans as Tax Relief Spurs Trade

China bought at least 10 more cargoes of Argentine soybeans, taking advantage of a temporary break in the South American country’s export levies to stock up amid a trade war with the US, its second-largest supplier.

Importers snapped up the shipments on Tuesday, mainly for loading in November, according to people familiar with the matter. That extends a buying spree prompted by Buenos Aires suspending export taxes on key crops including the oilseed.

In a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington, China hadn’t booked a single US cargo as of Sept. 11, almost two weeks into the new marketing season — the first time in records going back to 1999, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

More cargoes from Argentina will ease any potential shortfalls China might face toward the end of this year and into the first quarter of 2026, a period when the Asian nation typically relies on US shipments that dominate the market.

Argentine shipments booked this week total at least 20 cargoes, or more than 1.3 million tons, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to media. Chinese importers are expected to keep booking vessels from Argentina as long as the surprise reduction in export levies remains in place, according to the people.

News of the transactions — coming at a time when the US is readying a $20 billion aid package for Argentina — prompted the American Soybean Association, an industry group, to call on the Trump administration to “prioritize securing an immediate deal on soybeans with China.”

“US farmers cannot wait and hope any longer,” ASA President Caleb Ragland said in a statement. Retaliatory tariffs by China have allowed Brazil and Argentina to capture market “at the direct expense of US farmers,” he said. “The farm economy is suffering while our competitors supplant the United States in the biggest soybean import market in the world.”

 

China says US should remove tariffs to promote two-way trade

The United States should take steps to remove “unreasonable” tariffs on China and create conditions to expand two-way trade, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson said on Thursday, when asked if China was set to purchase U.S. soybeans.

 

IKAR Raises 2025 Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast to 87.5m Tons

IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest this year to 87.5 million tons, up from 87m tons, Director General Dmitry Rylko said by email.

• Cites better supply prospects in Urals and Western Siberia areas
• IKAR also slightly increased its wheat-export forecast for the 2025-26 season by 0.1 million tons to 44.1m tons
• It also increased its barley output estimate to 19m tons and raised the figure for corn to 15m tons

 

Australia on track for third-largest wheat harvest, record barley crop

Australia is on track to reap its third-biggest wheat harvest and its largest ever barley crop this year, according to a poll of analysts, many of whom have raised their estimates in recent weeks thanks to favourable crop conditions.

Australia is the world’s No. 4 wheat exporter and a big shipper of other crops. Its large wheat harvest will add to plentiful global supplies that have driven benchmark Chicago futures to five-year lows. Wv1GRA/

A poll of eight analysts in Australia released a median forecast for the country to produce 35.3 million metric tons of wheat, 14.7 million tons of barley and 6.45 million tons of canola in the harvest that will ramp up in the coming weeks.

For wheat, the forecast exceeds last season’s production of 34.1 million tons and the five-year average of 33.8 million tons, though it remains below the record 40.5 million tons harvested in 2022/23.

Barley output is set to comfortably beat last year’s harvest of 13.3 million tons and the five-year average of 13.4 million tons and edge ahead of the record-holding 14.6 million tons produced in 2020/21.

The canola forecast is a little above last season’s 6.4 million tons and on par with the five-year average of 6.5 million tons.

“After a difficult start, the rain has been good in most cropping regions,” said Michael Whitehead, executive director for food, beverage and agribusiness insights at ANZ.

“The indicators coming out of Western Australia look very positive, and problem areas elsewhere look better than they were last year.”

Five of the analysts polled by Reuters were also asked for their numbers a month ago. On average, they had raised their estimates for Australian wheat production by 1.7 million tons.

That said, rain has dried up in parts of eastern Australia, injecting caution into the outlook.

“October rainfall will be critical through southern New South Wales and large parts of Victoria and South Australia to stop crop potential from going backwards,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters.

Harvesting will wrap up around the end of the year.

 

US Eyes Announcement of Farmer Relief Package in Coming Weeks

The Trump administration will soon provide additional financial aid to American farmers, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins saying an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks.”

“We are currently in conversations here at the White House, across the government,” Rollins told reporters on Wednesday. “We’re looking at our soybean, corn, wheat, sorghum and cotton farmers who’re facing very, very difficult times.”

Crop revenues have been under pressure since before the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, due to falling commodity prices while rising costs for seeds, fertilizer and equipment have further squeezed profit margins.

Producers are also grappling with China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The Asian nation — the world’s largest soybean importer — has yet to book a single shipment of the US oilseed this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead.

 

Canada and Indonesia Ink Trade Deal Amid US Tariff Upheaval

Indonesia and Canada agreed to a deal to lower trade barriers and ease investment procedures, part of efforts by both nations to expand global economic ties in the wake of higher US tariffs.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed the pact, known as a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, at a meeting in Ottawa on Wednesday.

Officials in Indonesia previously said the deal would help more than 90% of the country’s goods get better access to the Canadian market, including textiles, paper, processed foods and palm oil.

Canada has praised the pact for enhancing access to Southeast Asian supply chains and boosting transparency for trade and investment. It also forms part of Canada’s larger strategy to strengthen trade ties with Asian countries outside of China — a push that has become even more urgent as Canada fights trade battles with both China and the US.

Indonesia is Canada’s largest export market in Southeast Asia and its second largest destination for known direct investment in the region, Canada’s Global Affairs department said last year.

Total trade between the countries stood at about $4 billion last year.

Canadian Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said the agriculture sector in particular is excited about access to the “huge market” of Indonesia, which has a population of about 280 million.

“Potash, wheat, soy is already going there, but they want to do more with Canada,” Sidhu said in an interview. “There are opportunities all the way through, even to the agri-food side of processed goods.”

He said there’s also strong potential for nuclear energy investment, such as tapping into Canada’s expertise in small modular reactors.

The pact also sets common rules on digital trade and intellectual property and stems from a process launched in late 2021. The deal will require ratification in Indonesia and Canada before it comes into force.

Canada is also in talks for a separate trade agreement with a wider bloc of Southeast Asian nations, part of ongoing efforts to diversify ties and reduce reliance on the US market, the destination for about three-quarters of its exports last year. Indonesia this week concluded a trade deal with the European Union that was a nearly a decade in the making.

 

U.S. soybean production slightly up as harvest begins amid moderate weather

2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 116 [113–119] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Overall favorable late season harvest weather, with little expected frost risks into October, fractionally increases 2025/26 U.S. soybean production to 116 [113–119] million tons, despite overall declining crop condition scores. Some acreage adjustments to core producing regions have been factored in as well. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 September), USDA pegged U.S. soy production at 117.1 million tons, slightly above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 81.8 million acres, down 6.1% from last season, which is 0.7 million acres above the USDA’s September estimate of 81.1 million acres. We have adopted USDA’s state-level area projections for some key regions where its latest estimates fell below the lower bound of our model results. These regions include Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Mississippi. Yield is estimated at 52.5 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 53.5 bpa), which leads to a production of 4.26 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 4.30 billion bushels). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 September) had analysts’ own estimates for soybean production and yield on average at 4.24 billion bushels (with a range of 4.14 and 4.32 billion bushels) and 52.8 bushels per acre (with a range of 51.6 and 54.0 bushels per acre), respectively. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 22 September) put total national-level soybean harvest at 9%, slightly behind last year’s 12% but in line with the five-year average of 9%. Crop condition scores are no longer around 5-year high at the national level, with currently 61% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 64%), which is an 8% drop from a month ago. Looking ahead, warm and dry weather is likely to dominate the majority of the Soy Belt through the end of the month (and potentially into early October as well), which should provide good late season conditions for maturing crops and harvest preparations.

 

Favorable harvest weather bodes well for U.S. corn yield despite declining condition scores

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 420 [414–426] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is increased by 1% to 420 [414–426] million tons amid favorable late season harvest weather conditions, with little expected frost risks into October, despite overall declining crop condition scores. Some acreage adjustments to core producing regions have been factored in as well. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 September), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 427.1 million tons, above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 97.7 million acres, up 7.9% from last season, which is 1.0 million acres below the USDA’s September estimate of 98.7 million acres. We have adopted USDA’s state-level area projections for some key regions where its latest estimates exceeded the upper bound of our model results. These regions include Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and the Dakotas. Yield is estimated at 185.3 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 186.7 bpa), which leads to a production of 16.53 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 16.81 billion bushels). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 September) had analysts’ own estimates for corn production and yield on average at 16.45 billion bushels (with a range of 16.19 and 16.67 billion bushels) and 185.0 bushels per acre (with a range of 180 and 187 bushels per acre), respectively. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 22 September) put total national-level corn harvest at 11%, in line with last year’s pace of 13% and the five-year average of 11%. Crop condition scores continue to remain around 5-year high, but have been on a consistent downward trend since late July at the national level, currently indicating 66% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 65%). Looking ahead, warm and dry weather is likely to dominate the majority of the Corn Belt through the end of the month (and potentially into early October as well), which should provide good conditions for maturing crops and harvest preparations.

 

Favorable late-season weather supports China corn production

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299.1 [295.6–302.2] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

During the past two weeks, Northeast China experienced relatively warm and dry conditions. The above normal temperatures contributed to extended grain-fill periods and limited frost or freezing damage, especially in the northern regions, while the dryness resulted in some soil moisture deficits. Overall weather conditions were positive for corn production. Latest weather forecasts suggest this weather pattern will continue through early October, supporting corn crop maturation.

On the other hand, the North China Plain experienced adequate precipitation across key corn-producing areas, accompanied by normal to slightly warm temperatures over the past month. This past weather effectively alleviated earlier drought stress and restored soil moisture levels. As a result, corn crop conditions have been improved, especially in Henan and Shandong provinces.

Overall, 2025/26 crop production in China was increased to 299.1 million tons, up 4.2 million tons from last year due to higher area and yields.

 

Brazil’s CADE sets date for key vote on soy moratorium appeal

Brazilian antitrust agency CADE’s tribunal will begin to review an appeal made by oilseeds lobby Abiove and grain traders, including Cargill and Bunge BG.N, against a measure ordering the companies to suspend enforcement of the soy moratorium program.

According to a notice published in the official gazette on Wednesday, the six commissioners on CADE’s tribunal will start voting on the appeal on September 30.

The fate of the moratorium, a 20-year-old corporate pact credited with slowing soy-driven deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, is hanging in the balance as government agencies clash over its legality, heightening risks for global grain traders in the world’s top soybean producer and exporter.

The voluntary program, which bars some 30 firms from buying soybeans from farmers who cleared land in the Amazon after July 2008, also represents a potential breach of Brazilian competition law.

Last month, CADE General Superintendent Alexandre Barreto de Souza gave grain traders an order to suspend the moratorium or face hefty fines.

De Souza also initiated a full investigation after concluding a preliminary probe into the signatories of the program, citing evidence of the companies sharing commercially sensitive information.

The suspension was welcomed by farm groups, including Aprosoja Mato Grosso, who say the corporate agreement is unfair and keeps some farmers out of the market.

The general superintendent’s decision, however, was criticized by grain trader lobbies, environmental groups like Greenpeace and Brazil’s environment ministry.

One week after the moratorium’s suspension by CADE, Abiove asked a federal court to block De Souza’s decision and obtained a favorable ruling. An injunction was granted against the suspension until CADE’s tribunal makes a final ruling on the appeal.

 

 

 

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