Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are slightly lower before month end, quarter end, USDA report and increase US harvest pressure. US stocks are mixed. USD is slightly lower. Crude is unch near $64. Gold is higher. Trump announced higher tariffs on patented drugs, heavy trucks, furniture and kitchen cabinets. Most of Midwest is dry which should aid harvest. SA weather is favorable for crops.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.11. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher post Argentina zero export tax. It just took 2 days for Argentina to sell $7 bill of grain exports. Argentina sold 6.5 mmt soymeal, 4.0 mmt soybean (mostly China). Export tax now reverts back to original tax. Bears are looking for SX support near 9.85. Trade est Sep 1 stocks soybean stocks near 323 mil bu. US soybean export commit is down 11 pct vs ly and USDA down 10 pct. Soybeans trying to balance slow US export soybean sales vs tight old crop supply and USDA stocks report. Managed fund remain net short soybeans and soymeal.
CORN
CZ is near 4.25. Dalian corn futures were higher. Record US crop could weigh on prices through harvest. US export prices remain competitive vs SA prices. US corn export commit is up 77 pct vs ly and USDA up 5 pct. Trade est Sep 1 stocks should be near 1,337 mil bu vs USDA 1,325. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. It just took 2 days for Argentina to sell $7 bill of grain exports. Argentina sold 1.5 mmt of corn. Brazil corn futures were higher on lower Real. Brazil farmer increased cash sales.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.25. KWZ is near 5.11. MWZ is near 5.71. Some still feel USDA may not be done in increasing Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU crops. Trade est Sep 1 wheat stocks near 2,043 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,925 mil bu vs 1,921 previous. US wheat export Commit is up 22 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Matif futures followed higher US prices and increase Euro.
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