Global Ag News For Sept 26.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US to Scrutinize Farm Input Suppliers on Cost Surge

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the US will investigate suppliers of crop inputs such as seeds and fertilizers for potential antitrust violations, sending share prices plunging.

The agriculture and justice departments have signed a memorandum of understanding to “take a hard look and scrutinize competitive conditions in the agriculture marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition,” Rollins said Thursday during a conference in Missouri.

Shares of North American fertilizer producers Nutrien Ltd. and CF Industries Holdings Inc. slumped more than 3% while Mosaic Co. fell as much as 4.8% before paring those declines. Corteva Inc., which supplies genetically modified seeds and pesticides, plunged as much as 5.3%.

The cost of key inputs such as fertilizers and tractors have been on the rise this year, partly because of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. That has squeezed farmers at a time when they are also dealing with low crop prices and China’s shift away from American soybeans.

Rollins also cited concerns about “undue foreign influence” on the market, “especially given a significant portion of our fertilizer production is overseas.”

The agriculture sector, which is highly concentrated, has drawn increased scrutiny over the past few years. Seed, fertilizer and equipment producers had already been targeted by the Biden administration’s 2021 initiative to strengthen competition — a push that was revoked by President Donald Trump last month.

Last year, Biden announced a $500 million plan to boost domestic fertilizer supply and ease cost pressures on farmers.

A 2023 study by the USDA found that two companies supplied almost 72% of the corn seeds cultivated by US farmers.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil down 0.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal down $9.80; Soyoil down 0.48.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 1/4 in SRW, down 9 1/2 in HRW, down 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans down 44 1/4; Soymeal down $15.40; Soyoil down 2.04.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.8% in SRW, down 8.5% in HRW, down 3.9% in HRS; Corn is down 7.4%; Soybeans up 1.3%; Soymeal down 12.2%; Soyoil up 24.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 10 yuan; Soymeal down 12; Soyoil up 12; Palm oil up 52; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 43 ringgit (-0.97%) at 4396.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 45 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 25 were: SRW Wheat up 906 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,272, Corn up 12,249, Soybeans up 12,888, Soymeal up 7,711, Soyoil down 1,886.

 

WARMTH AND DRYING TREND WILL SUPPORT NORTH AMERICAN SPRING CROP HARVESTS

What to Watch:

• Heavy rains were observed locally in the U.S Corn Belt last week, with potential impacts on spring crop harvests and plantings
• Warmth and drier than normal conditions over the next 2 weeks will offset excessive moisture and facilitate field work in all crop areas
• No end in sight for heat across the Canadian Prairies

 

Northern Plains: Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent rainfall has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely now through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

Midwest: Scattered showers are exiting the east on Thursday after being heavy in many areas this week. The recent rainfall is likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and most of next week will promote harvest.

Delta: Scattered showers are exiting to the south early on Thursday. The recent rain will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

Brazil: A cold front remains stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais on Thursday before it fizzles out. It has already produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in many areas. However, forecast rainfall afterward is very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to secure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas will get a couple more rounds of rainfall this weekend and next week and remain in good condition for widespread planting.

Argentina: Soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

Europe: A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of the continent for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

Black Sea: Though a few fronts will move through Thursday and next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment in southwestern Russia and eastern Ukraine, though conditions are good for fieldwork. Conditions are better in the western end of the region.

Australia: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, with only limited showers for southeastern areas.

China: As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in the northeast are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola, with mostly favorable conditions there

 

The player sheet for 9/25 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, and sellers of 5,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 18, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Egypt with 166k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 891k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Philippines with 116k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 18, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 10k tons of the 29.6k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Corn Crop Estimates Sept. 25: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn area estimate maintained at 7.8m ha
• Planting advanced to 12.3% complete from 6.2%

 

China buys most of 40 Argentina soy cargoes this week for Nov-Dec, traders say

Around 40 Argentine soybean cargoes were registered for export in November and December during this week’s export tax suspension, mostly headed to China, two traders told Reuters, in purchases that directly eat into the prime U.S. marketing season.

A total of 2.66 million tons of soybeans were registered for November and December, accounting for more than 50% of the 5.1 million tons of total volume booked for all months cited by Argentine officials during the tax-free window, the two Asian traders said on Friday.

The buying frenzy by Chinese importers this week was a fresh blow for U.S. soybean farmers, who have been shut out of exports to top market China during the current harvest season as trade war tariffs make their beans prohibitively expensive for Chinese buyers.

“If you look at purchases for November and December, China has further reduced its need for U.S. soybeans by booking Argentinian cargoes,” said an oilseed trader at an international firm which is among the buyers.

Reuters on Wednesday reported that around 20 cargoes were swiftly booked by China after the tax suspension was announced – a short-lived move by Argentina’s government to attract up to $7 billion in sales to boost U.S. dollar reserves and stabilise the struggling peso.

The tax break was quickly rolled back after the sales cap was reached.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of September 11, China had not bought any U.S. soybean cargoes from its autumn harvest.

The critical U.S. marketing window runs from September through January.

 

Argentina soy exports at 7-year high after tax pause fuels trading ‘frenzy’

Argentina’s declared soy exports for the 2024/25 season hit a seven-year high after a brief pause in export taxes triggered a trading frenzy, which should continue to boost the market as many exporters declared sales before buying the goods.

Argentina is set to export 10.5 million metric tons of soybeans from this season’s harvest, according to government data, ahead of the previous record of 10.1 million achieved in 2018/19. Available official records go back to 2017/18.

The Agriculture Secretariat did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether this season’s declared soy sales represent an all-time high.

Argentina, one of the world’s top grains suppliers, relies on the agricultural sector to generate foreign currency. The tax pause aimed to accelerate sales abroad and secure much-needed dollars to stabilize its flagging peso currency.

Monday’s suspension of export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and their by-products, including biodiesel, was set to last through the end of October or until declared exports reached $7 billion.

Soy exports typically carry a 26% tax.

A separate tax suspension on beef and poultry products, also launched earlier this week, will continue through the end of October, without a sales cap, presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni said on Thursday, with no sales quotas attached.

 

India Vegetable Oil Imports to Rise About 5% in 2025-26: Mistry

Vegetable oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer, are expected to rise by 4.6% to 17.1m tons in the next season starting in November, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

• Inbound shipments of palm oil are likely to jump more than 13% from a year earlier to 9.3m tons in 2025-26, Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said in slides prepared for a conference in Mumbai on Friday
• Soybean oil purchases may slightly fall to 5m tons next year from 5.1m tons in 2024-25
• Mistry kept his earlier forecast of palm oil exceeding 5,000 ringgit ($1,184) a ton by year-end; benchmark prices were at around 4,412 ringgit in Kuala Lumpur on Friday
• “Indian importers have thrown the supply side of the market into disarray,” he said
  • The South Asian nation has diversified by importing crude palm oil from Thailand, Colombia and Guatemala, and soybean oil from China, Russia, Egypt and Iraq
• Soybean oil has continued to gain market share as Indonesia has stepped up palm biodiesel consumption with its B40 program, Mistry said
• “Indonesia has taken on the mantle of being a disruptor in the palm market” by boldly implementing its program of mixing 40% palm-based biofuels in diesel, and removing subsidies on all non-PSO palm biodiesel
  • NOTE: Public Service Obligation refers to biodiesel that is part of the government-mandated supply for essential services like public transport or electricity

 

India buys record Argentine soyoil volume after export duty scrapped, sources say

India purchased 300,000 metric tons of soyoil from Argentina during Tuesday and Wednesday, the largest ever purchase in a two-day period, dealers said, taking advantage of Buenos Aires’ move to scrap export taxes on soybeans and other food products.

The aggressive purchases will help Argentina cut its soyoil stocks, but could also mean fewer palm oil shipments from Indonesia and Malaysia to India.

The soyoil purchases are for October-to-March shipment, the dealers said, declining to be identified as the deals were made by private trading houses.

The volume bought in such a short period is unprecedented, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a trade house, as traders largely ignored palm oil.

Argentina on Monday temporarily scrapped export taxes on various farm goods, including soybeans, in a bid to accelerate overseas sales and bring in much-needed U.S. dollars to support its weakening peso.

India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, typically imports just under 300,000 tons of soyoil a month, and the size of this week’s purchase highlights the impact of Argentina’s decision, the dealers said.

The soyoil was bought at $1,100 to $1,120 a ton, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), the dealers said.

“As prices corrected by around $50 following the duty exemption, Indian buyers rushed to make purchases, finding it cheaper than palm oil,” one of the dealers added.

India’s soyoil imports fell 25.27% to a four-month low of 367,917 tons in August, according to the leading trade body, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it sources soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

India’s overall vegetable oil imports in August rose 4.7% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, the highest since July 2024 as purchases of palm oil and sunflower oil increased.

Demand for edible oils, particularly palm oil, in India usually rises during the festival season due to higher consumption of sweets and fried foods.

 

Top Indian Vegoil Buyer Sees Cheaper Soy Oil Driving Palm Shift

India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil buyer, is poised to boost soybean oil purchases next year as bumper global crops have made the commodity cheaper than rival palm, according to a top importer.

“Indian households are price conscious and flexible in switching to cheaper vegetable oils,” Aashish Acharya, a vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., said in an interview on the sidelines of Globoil, a vegetable oil conference. Inbound shipments will rise by about 9% next year starting in November from an estimated 5.5 million tons in 2024-25, he said in Mumbai on Thursday.

The shift in buying pattern could reshape India’s edible oil mix and add pressure on top palm oil exporters — Indonesia and Malaysia, which are already grappling with weaker demand. Benchmark palm oil prices have fallen by 4.5% in Kuala Lumpur from a five-month high in August.

Local buyers ramped up soybean oil imports from Argentina earlier this week, seizing on a temporary suspension of export levies by the South American nation that made the commodity more competitive, Acharya said. Indian traders and processors snapped up 300,000 to 350,000 tons of soybean oil in three days this week from Argentina and China for shipments between October and February, he said.

Landed cost of palm oil in India is currently as much as $40 a ton more than soybean oil, he said. Soy oil normally commands a premium over palm, but a higher supply outlook and US President Donald Trump’s trade policies have dampened its prices.

Palm oil imports by India may fall to about 7.5 million tons in 2025-26, from an estimated 7.9 million tons a year earlier, Acharya said. The country bought about 9 million tons of the tropical commodity in 2023-24, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

 

EU Boosts 2025-26 Grain Output Forecast on More Soft Wheat

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 284.2m tons in the 2025-26 season, up from a August forecast of 276.9m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The soft-wheat forecasts was raised to 132.6m tons from 128.1m tons
• The barley outlook was also raised to 55.7m tons from 53.7m tons
• The crop projection for corn was slightly cut to 56.8m tons from 57.6m tons

 

Argentine Peso Rises on Grain Tax Break, Meat Exemption Extended

The Argentine peso opened the session higher, rising about 1.5%, after a $7 billion cap on a temporary tax break for agricultural exports was reached following a flood of shipments abroad. The government extended the exemption for meat sales until Oct. 31.

• The peso has gained for four days after the exemption was first announced, prompting a rush of dollars into the FX market
  • The currency was also supported by the US announcement of a $20 bullion swap line with Argentina
  • NOTE: The rally prompted the central bank to cut its one-day peso repo rate by 10 percentage points to 25%
• NOTE: Soybean, wheat and corn futures in Chicago rebounded as the tax break on Argentinian crop exports expired

 

China’s CR20 Seals Grain Deal With Angola Amid US Trade War

A unit of China Railway 20 Bureau Group Corp. signed a deal with Angola to develop grain-farms and export channels for soybeans, rice and other staples, as the world’s second-largest food importer reduces its reliance on the US.

CR20’s Angolan unit will also develop irrigation systems and other related infrastructure, Jornal de Economia e Finanças reported, citing Agriculture Minister Isaac dos Anjos, at the signing ceremony. No investment figure was disclosed.

The Chinese state company, long active in Angola’s construction sector, is shifting into farming to supply both local markets and China.

The agreements add to recent Chinese investments in Angolan farming, such as a $250 million Citic Ltd.-led soybean project and a $100 million Sinohydro Group grain initiative.

China has been scaling back on its US food imports amid trade tensions with America. For the first time since at least the 1990s, it hasn’t bought any US soybeans at the start of the export season.

Angola also signed a $210 million deal with a consortium comprising Portugal-based Elevo Group and local-based Tegma-SU to develop palm plantations and build a refinery to supply the domestic market and export any surplus within seven years, Elevo’s Chairman Gilberto Rodrigues said at the same event.

Both deals include commitments on infrastructure and technology transfer, said Dos Anjos.

Angola, which still derives more than 90% of export revenue from crude oil, is pursuing the deals as a hedge against price swings.

Dos Anjos said in an interview earlier this month that the southern African nation wants to more than double agriculture’s contribution to the economy.

 

Malaysia says US has agreed to consider tariff exemptions for cocoa and palm oil, state media reports

The United States has agreed to consider granting tariff exemptions for Malaysian commodities such as cocoa and palm oil, with a decision expected to be finalised in October, Malaysia’s state news agency Bernama reported on Friday, citing a government official.

The United States will also consider zero tariffs on Malaysia’s furniture, automotive and aerospace exports, Bernama reported.

 

USDA Raises 2026 Food Inflation Estimate to 2.7% Y/y

The following is a summary of USDA forecasts for annual 2025 and 2026 retail food prices in the US, according to the agency’s latest report.

• 2026 all food estimate raised to 2.7% in Sept. from 2.2% in Aug.
• The 2026 category with the biggest upward revision was beef/veal at 9.3% vs previous est. of 4.4%
• The 2026 category with the biggest downward revision was processed food which got lowered to 3.1% y/y from 4.5% y/y
• The USDA publishes a range of variability and a midpoint for the overall inflation figure and its components

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 9.7% Y/y in August

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.15b pounds in Aug., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 11.9% y/y to 2.02b pounds
• Aug. cattle slaughter totaled 2.33m head, a 13.7% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 25 pounds from last year to 1,413 pounds
• Pork production down 7.6% y/y to 2.12b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 7.1% y/y to 10,127m head
  • Avg live weight was 280 pounds vs 282 pounds a year ago

 

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 1.3% Y/y in August: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.9 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 0.8% in August from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 4.2% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem down 1.3% y/y

 

Trump Says Tariff Revenue Will Fund Relief for US Farmers

President Donald Trump said his administration will use funds collected from tariffs to assist beleaguered US farmers, previewing an impending bailout for an agriculture sector hit hard by his trade policies.

“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we’ve made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are — for a little while — going to be hurt until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” Trump said Thursday at the White House.

Trump later told reporters that administration officials “haven’t decided” the final version of the plan, and that he would consult on the matter with US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

American farming communities, which largely voted for Trump in 2024, have experienced economic pain during his second term, as export markets for crops have dried up in the wake of the president’s trade wars and federal safety-net programs have shrunk. That has created a potential political vulnerability for the president’s fellow Republicans heading into next year’s midterm elections.

GOP lawmakers from key agricultural states have expressed frustration with the president’s trade policy and its impact on US farmers. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa criticized a move by Argentina to sell soybeans to China — sidelining American farmers who usually dominate the trade — and urged Trump to secure a deal with Beijing.

“Farmers VERY upset about Argentina selling soybeans to China right after USA bail out,” Grassley said on social media Thursday referencing the US readying a financial lifeline for Buenos Aires. “Still ZERO USA soybeans sold to China Meanwhile China is still hitting USA w 20% retaliatory tariff NEED CHINA TRADE DEAL NOW farmers need markets 2boost farm economy.”

China — the world’s largest soybean importer — has yet to book a single shipment of the US oilseed this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. Producers are also grappling with Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

Rollins has said that the administration would provide financial assistance to farmers “perhaps in the next couple of weeks.” Speaking Thursday during a conference in Missouri, Rollins said the remaining $2 billion in payments under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program — which aims to help farmers cope with rising input costs and falling commodity prices — will be released “within the week.”

Roughly $8 billion of the program’s total $10 billion has already been disbursed, according to information on the USDA website. It’s unclear if the next aid package would fall under that program or a different one.

Using tariff revenue for farm aid could prove risky. The president’s sweeping duties imposed using emergency powers have been ruled illegal by lower courts, and if the Supreme Court affirms those decisions, the US government could have to pay back tens of billions of dollars in refunds.

Still, farmers have long been eager for relief. Crop revenues have been under pressure since before the start of Trump’s second term, due to falling commodity prices while rising costs for seeds, fertilizer and equipment have further squeezed profit margins.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 261k tons in the week ending Sept. 20 from 252k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 3% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 10% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $24.70 per short ton, an increase of $0.16 from the previous week

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.