ADMIS News
COTTON
December Cotton is back near the lower end of the trading range of the past six months. The market seemed to find buyers for a day this week at the low prices, but once again it pulled back and failed to build support. US exports remain dismal, and the stronger dollar this week does not help prospects. Yesterday’s export sales report did nothing to inspire the bulls, with cotton sales for the week ending September 18 at 86,094 bales, down from 205,155 the previous week and was the lowest since July 10. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 4.059 million bales, down from 4.871 million at this time last year and the lowest since 2015/16. Sales have reached just 36% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 53% for this point in the marketing year. The largest buyer this week was India at 27,266 bales, followed by Turkey at 22,314, Bangladesh at 15,427, and Vietnam at 13,473. China bought 78 bales. Vietnam has the most commitments for 2025/26 at 975,125 bales, followed by Pakistan at 472,451, Mexico at 419,447, Turkey at 311,367, and Bangladesh at 302,907. US crop conditions have slipped in recent weeks, but this is a seasonal trend, and conditions remain above average, especially in Texas. The Weekly Drought Monitor showed significant expansions of severe drought (D2) in Alabama and Georgia. By September 21, topsoil moisture rated very short was 59% in Georgia. Elsewhere topsoil moisture was rated 78% very short to short in Tennessee and 71% in Arkansas. World Weather Inc. says West Texas precipitation will be limited for the next ten days and temperatures will be warm, which will be good for cotton boll development. Cotlook put global cotton production surplus for 2025/26 at 523,000 metric tons, down from 637,000 in their estimate from August.
COFFEE
December Coffee pushed above the 9-day moving average overnight for the first time since its collapse on September 18. The bulls may not be expecting much from next week’s meeting between President Trump and Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva towards easing the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. In the meantime, ICE certified stocks continue to fall, falling another 21,576 bags yesterday to 579,961, their lowest since March 25, 2024. Stocks have declined for 13 straight sessions. Colombian producers are reportedly worried that the flood of Brazilian imports into their country will damage their brand reputation if unscrupulous exporters mix Brazilian bean in with their own to circumvent the US tariffs. Cecafe reported that Brazilian coffee shipments to Colombia in August totaled 113,000 bags, almost six times the same period a year ago. However, Cecafé also said there are no re-exports directly to the US as most shipments were robusta beans. World Weather Inc says rain in Brazil this week may have been enough to induce some flowering in a few areas but more was needed and that it needs to be more widespread. The next several days will be dry or mostly dry with temperatures mostly near to slightly above normal. Typhoon Ragasa brought moderate to heavy rain to portions of northern Vietnam yesterday, and Tropical Storm Bualoi is expected make landfall in the north part of the nation as a weak typhoon Sunday. Heavy rains and flooding likely in Quang Tri and northern Vietnam, but it appears the Central Highlands should miss most of the adverse conditions.
SUGAR
March Sugar extended this week’s bounce off contract lows overnight and traded to its highest levels since September 17. The market closed above the 9-day moving average yesterday, and that line has held support at 18.21 so far today. The next UNICA report on Brazilian Center-South sugar production, covering the first half of September, will likely be released on or around September 30. A survey of analysts published by S&P Global has an average expectations 3.6 million tons, which would be up 15% from a year ago. Sucha a result would put cumulative production for the 2025/26 marketing year that began in April down 0.2% from a year ago after being down 4.1% in mid-August, down 9.2% in mid-July, and down 14.7% in mid-June. Pakistan has placed orders for a total of 320,000 tons of sugar from recent tenders, Abdul Karim, director general at the country’s ministry of food security & research, said in an interview.
COCOA
December Cocoa was slightly lower overnight and was approaching Tuesday’s two-month lows. Recent rainfall in West Africa has improved the outlook for the upcoming main crop, which officially begins October 1, as well as for the mid-crop early next year. Malaysia’s state news agency reported today that the US has agreed to consider granting tariff exemptions for Malaysian commodities, including cocoa, with a decision expected to be finalized in October. Malaysia is not a major cocoa producer, but it is the estimated to be largest grinder in Asia for 2023/24 at 383,000 tons versus out of a total of 1.103 million for Asia and 4.818 million for the world. Third quarter grind numbers for Europe, North America and Asia in early October will released on October 16. The second-quarter data had European grind down 7.2% from a year ago, Asia down 16.3%, and North America down 2.8%. World Weather Inc expects rain to continue through during the next week across West African cocoa production areas. The precipitation will be sufficient in maintaining an improving trend in soil moisture and crop development after a delay in the start of the second rainy season.
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