Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were quietly mixed in 2 sided trade. Spreads eased a touch. Dec-25 held a test of LW’s low at $4.18 ¼ setting up the midday recovery. Export inspections at 60 mil. bu., were in line with expectations and above the 57 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up by just over 2 mil. bringing YTD inspections to 201 mil. bu. up 52% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 26 mil., Japan – 10 mil. and South Korea – 7.5 mil. The USDA also announced the sales of 111k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer and 136k mt (5.4 mil./ bu.) to Mexico. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn crop is 32% planted vs. 30% YA. Friday’s CFTC data showed MM’s were net sellers of nearly 15k contracts of corn extending their short position to 94,675 contracts. The December contract has closed lower 15 times in the past 25 years while closing higher 10 times.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower across the complex with beans down $.03-$.04, meal was mixed and within $1 of unchanged while oil was down 50 points. Bean spreads were mixed while oil spreads firmed and meal spreads weakened with several hitting new lows. Nov-25 beans held above last week’s lows while holding within a $10.05-$10.20 range. Spot board crush margins were steady at $1.42 bu. with bean oil PV pulling back to 47.4%. An active harvest weekend across the Midwest with warm and dry conditions for much of the nation’s midsection. Summer like conditions look to extend into the first full week of October, with the best chances for rain late this week in the northern plains and far northern Midwest. Week 2 of the outlook shows above normal precipitation across the NC Midwest. Export inspections at 22 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 33 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 3 mil. bringing YTD inspections to 83 mil. bu. up 16% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Still no shipments to China. Biggest takers were Germany with 5 mil. bu. and Japan with 4 mil. AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean plantings have reached 3.2% vs. the YA pace of 2%. Friday’s CFTC data showed MM’s were net sellers of nearly 32k contracts of soybeans, 22k contracts of soybean oil and just over 20k contracts of meal. The 74k contracts sold across the soybean complex was the most in 1 week in over 6 months. In addition to the USDA data tomorrow we also get an update from the EIA on biodiesel and renewable diesel production, capacity and feedstocks usage this from the month of July. The already announced RIN generation data would suggest a nice bump up in biodiesel and renewable diesel production during the month however much uncertainty looking forward on whether the Trump Admin. will be able to reallocate some of the biofuel exempted from the small refineries in August. Historically the September stocks report has leaned bearish for soybeans. The November contract has closed lower 16 times in the past 25 years, including the last 4 years, while closing higher 9 times.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady to $.03 higher. Export inspections at 27 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and well above the 15 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 3 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 350 mil. bu. up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. MM’s were net sellers of just over 12k contracts of CGO wheat, 500 contracts of MIAX while buying 1,230 contracts of KC. The combined MM short position across the 3 classes of wheat jumped another 11k contracts to nearly 175k contracts, the largest in 3 months. IKAR is reporting Russia’s wheat export price ended LW at $230/mt up $2 from the previous week. Russia’s Ag. Ministry lowered their wheat export tax 5.8% to 617.7 roubles/mt for the period ending Oct. 7th. The end of September reports have a bit of a bullish tilt for wheat with the December Chicago contract closing higher 14 of the past 25 years, including 5 of the past 6. The USDA has lowered their WW production forecast 7 out of the past 8 years.
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