Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government is shutdown. Grains are mixed after news that when Trump and XI meet in 4 weeks soybeans will be one of the topics discussed. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is unch near $61.47. Gold is higher and near new highs. Most of Midwest remains dry which should aid harvest. Brazil October rainfall could improve.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.13. SX had an outside day and closed above previous day high. Still, larger World 2026 soybean supply suggest SX could test 9.80. There were 435 soyoil deliveries and 143 soymeal. Nearby Brazil soybean premiums were lower trying to offset higher futures. President Trump tweeted that in 4 weeks when he meets with China President XI soybean will be a topic of discussion. StoneX est US soybean crop at 4,329 mil bu vs their previous est of 4,257 and USDA Sep est of 4,301. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. China is closed for holiday. Trade est US soybean export sales near 300-1,600 mt.
CORN
CZ is near 4.17 and bounced off session low following rebound in soybean futures. CZ traded below the 50 DMA before rebounding. This suggest CZ could eventually test 3.90. Trade was worried that a new China soybean trade deal could include corn. StoneX est US corn crop at 16,737 mil bu vs their previous est of 16,577 and USDA Sep est of 16,814. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. China is closed for holiday. Trade est US corn export sales near 1,200-2,000 mt. Matif corn was lower on good harvest weather despite SW France dryland corn yield are well below normal.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.10. WZ made new lows before rebounding and following soybean rally. KWZ is near 4.96. MWZ is near 5.56. Matif wheat futures near recent lows. Some est July-Sep US and Canada combined wheat exports at 15 mmt or up 32 lct vs last year. Australia and Argentina combined wheat exports were near 7 mmt or up 54 pct vs last year. EU and Black Sea exports were near 22 mmt or down 18 pct vs last year. Trade est US wheat export sales near 300-650 mt.
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