Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were up $.04-$.05 making session highs in late trade. Spreads also firmed. Dec-25 held support above its 50 day MA at $4.14 ½ on early weakness. Buy stops were triggered upon breaching yesterday’s high. Resistance rests at the 100 day MA at $4.24 ¼. Although StoneX lowered their corn yields 1 bu. to 185.9 bpa, their production forecast was up 160 mil. bu. to 16.737 bil. due to higher acres. Their forecast is still 77 mil. bu. below the USDA forecast from September. S&P Global also lowered their US corn production and yield estimates to 16.707 bil. bu. with an average yield of 185.5 bpa. Yesterday speculative traders bought roughly 10K contracts of corn, cutting their short position to 110k. US corn area in drought rose 2% to 28%. No CFTC-COT data this Friday with the Fed. Govt. shutdown.
SOYBEANS
A late rally enabled prices to close higher across the complex. Beans were up $.09-$.11, meal rallied $4-$6 while oil closed a few ticks higher after being down much of the session. Bean and meal spreads firmed while oil spreads were mixed. Deliveries against Oct-25 meal slipped to 143 contracts while oil increased to 435. Nov-25 beans briefly traded above its 50 day MA and LW’s low before settling just below both. Next major resistance for Dec-25 meal is at its 50 day MA at $284.80. Dec-25 oil topped out at yesterday’s high at 50.75. With fresh demand news lacking due to the Fed. Govt. shutdown, agricultural commodities continue to draw support from Pres. Trump’s social media posts yesterday where he stated soybeans will be a “major topic of discussion” during his meeting with China’s Pres. Xi in 4 weeks. This AM Treasury Sec. Bessent said there would be an announcement next Tues. on how the Fed. Govt will support American farmers while stating “we’ve got their backs”. With the likelihood of Trump $$$ heading their way, the US farmer is less apt to sell off the combine while storing whatever they can in hopes of a US/China trade deal (or SA weather problem) enabling prices to recover. Storage capacity will likely becomes increasingly strained the deeper we get into harvest, particularly considering corn, beans and wheat stocks as of Sept. 1st were 250 mil. above expectations. Harvest should continue to roll nearly uninterrupted thru the end of the upcoming weekend. US temperatures to remain well above normal thru mid-October. Yesterday speculative traders are believed to have purchased 30k beans, 6,500 oil and 3k meal contracts.
WHEAT
Prices were $.03-$.05 higher across the 3 classes. New contract low overnight in Dec-25 MIAX futures however wasn’t able to carve out a key reversal day. Speculative traders bought 3k contracts of CGO futures yesterday, however still hold a short position around 100k contracts. Likely saw similar amounts of buying today. Saudi Arabia is seeking 420k mt of wheat in a tender that expires tomorrow. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry forecasts winter wheat acres will expand 9% in 2026 to 5.2 mil. HA as farmers switch acres away from corn and sunflower due to this summer’s drought. Plantings have already begun with 672k hectares planted as of Sept. 25th. US HRW wheat production at 804 mil. bu. increased for a 3rd consecutive year while reaching a 6 year high.
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