Global Ag News For Oct 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Global 2025-26 Grain Output, Stockpiles Set for Record: FAO

The world market is set to be well-supplied with grains in the 2025-26 season, with upward revisions to production forecasts across the grains basket, led by wheat, maize and rice, according to a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

• FAO forecasts global grain production of 2.97b tons
  • That’s 10.1m tons above its September estimate
• The stock-to-use ratio is forecast to remain steady at last season’s level of 30.6%, “indicating comfortable supply prospects in the new season”
• Total grains stockpiles at the end of season are seen rising to 900.2m tons, up 1.6m tons from a September forecast
• Wheat stockpiles are seen at 320.3m tons, up 2.4m tons from their opening levels, following large harvests in Canada and Russia
• Forecasts for rice stockpiles were revised up while coarse grain stockpiles were scaled back slightly

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $4.80; Soyoil up 0.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.9% in SRW, down 11.0% in HRW, down 5.8% in HRS; Corn is down 8.2%; Soybeans up 2.3%; Soymeal down 11.8%; Soyoil up 25.2%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 4 ringgit (-0.09%) at 4442.

China markets are closed for holiday.

There were changes in registrations (100 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 2 were: SRW Wheat down 4 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,801, Corn up 10,767, Soybeans up 2,882, Soymeal up 5,821, Soyoil up 6,901.

 

Northern Plains: A weak front has moved into the region and may produce some showers for the next couple of days. Better chances exist over the weekend, though. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the drydown of crops as well as harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Though a few spotty showers are possible, warm and largely dry conditions continue in most areas for the next few days, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Midwest: Though a couple of spotty showers may develop, warm and dry conditions continue for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, with better chances for widespread showers early next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures should take a dive behind this front, but to what degree is unknown as models disagree greatly for next week’s forecast.

Delta: Warm and dry weather that continues into next week is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week’s rainfall. Largely drier conditions this fall would cause transportation issues for much of the season.

Brazil: A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil through Saturday, favorable for planting and early growth. Another front is forecast to bring more showers through early next week. Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

Argentina: A front continues over far northern areas with isolated showers through Friday. Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall but a significant drop in temperature. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius.

Europe: Showers continue over the Balkans into Saturday, which are getting some needed rain this week. Another system will move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend. Additional showers are forecast for next week as well. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

Black Sea: A system moving through southeastern Europe has been producing widespread rainfall in Ukraine over the last several days with showers lasting through the weekend. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier-than-normal weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week’s rainfall.

Australia: The country has gone into a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, and that may spread to southeastern areas next week in a couple of waves, but rainfall amounts are still forecast to be below normal for most areas.

China: Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather is starting to make its way into the forecast that could slow down progress. Central China continues to see occasional showers through next week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

The player sheet for 10/2 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 10,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia issued a tender to purchase 420,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said. The delivery of the wheat, which should have 12.5% protein content, is scheduled for December through January, GFSA said in a statement. The deadline for receiving offers is October 3.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 80,550 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US to Announce Substantial Support for Farmers Tuesday: Bessent

The US will announce “substantial” aide for farmers on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells CNBC.

• Bessent criticizes China for using soybeans in trade talks

 

Bessent Sees China Progress as Soy Fight Echoes Rare-Earth Spat

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next round of trade talks with China, even as the Trump administration takes steps to support American farmers hurt by a decline in Chinese purchases.

“The most important thing we’re going to see” is a pull-aside meeting of Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at a regional summit in South Korea scheduled for late October, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC Thursday. He added that his own parallel trade talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng, “which would be our fifth round of talks, should show a pretty big breakthrough.”

Purchases of agricultural products, and particularly soybeans, have emerged as a key point of contention between the world’s two largest economies. Earlier this year, China used its dominance of vital rare earths to help force Trump into easing export controls on certain goods to China. That came on the heels of an agreement to reduce the punitively high tariffs that both sides had levied on each other.

Beijing has turned to soybeans as leverage just as the harvest is coming in. While last year China, the world’s biggest buyer, sourced a fifth of its imports from the US, it hasn’t bought a single soybean cargo from the current harvest. Bessent called this year’s yield so big that “we may run out of storage.”

Bessent said he had a meeting in the Oval Office on Wednesday with Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, and that news would be coming next Tuesday on support for American farmers, and the soy sector in particular.

 

S&P Global lowers yield estimates for US 2025 corn and soybean crops

S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered its estimate of the average U.S. 2025 corn yield to 185.5 bushels per acre (bpa), the firm said in a client note on Thursday, down from its month-ago forecast of 189.1 bpa.

S&P estimated U.S. 2025 corn production at 16.707 billion bushels, down from 16.768 billion last month.

For soybeans, S&P forecast the average U.S. yield at 53.0 bpa, down from its September 5 estimate of 53.8 bpa. The firm put soybean production at 4.261 billion bushels, down from 4.306 billion bushels previously

 

Brazil’s SLC Agricola projects planted area in 2025/26 cycle of 836,095 hectares

• PROJECTS PLANTED AREA IN 2025/26 CYCLE OF 836,095 HECTARES, UP 13.6% Y/Y – FILING
• PROJECTS 2025/26 COST PER HECTARE OF 7,112 REAIS, UP 10.2% Y/Y

 

Ukraine Raises Its Winter Grain Area Estimate by 8%: Ministry

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has raised its estimate for winter grain area by 8% to 5.2 million hectares (12.8 million acres), Deputy Minister Taras Vysotskyi said by phone.

• Previous estimate was for approximately 4.8 million hectares.

 

Argentine wheat yields near historic highs

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat yields are nearing historic highs thanks to abundant soil moisture, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, two days after it hiked up its harvest estimate to 22 million metric tones.

Argentina is a major world supplier of wheat, and abundant rainfall in recent months has left ample water reserves in the South American country’s fertile soils.

“This is beneficial and timely, considering that temperatures are rising and 80% of the crops have advanced to their stem elongation stage or beyond,” the exchange said in a weekly report.

Argentina produced a record wheat crop of 22.4 million tons on 2021/22. Farmers are set to begin harvesting in November.

Also benefiting from moist soils, corn farmers have now planted 19.8% of the 7.8 million hectares they are expected to sow for the 2025/26 season, the exchange said.

It estimates that Argentine farmers will produce a record 58 million tons of corn this season, nine million more than last cycle. The country is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

 

Argentine Corn Crop Estimates Oct. 2: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn area estimate maintained at 7.8m hectares
  • Planting advanced to 19.8% complete from 12.3% as good soil moisture spurs fieldwork
• Rains are boosting wheat plants, with forecasts for yields rising and “approaching historical highs”
  • No update to production estimate of 22m metric tons

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Stocks to Dip From 20-Month High on Export Run

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia are expected to ease from their highest level since December 2023 as exports likely jumped in the world’s second-largest grower and production slipped.

Inventories fell 1.8% in September from a month earlier to 2.16 million tons, according to the median of seven estimates in a poll of traders and analysts.

Malaysian palm oil stockpiles are a key indicator of global supply and pricing trends. A potential decline in inventories, especially during a seasonal production slowdown in the coming months, could support prices of the commodity that plays a vital role in the food, cosmetics, and biofuel industries worldwide.

Exports jumped 8.3% to 1.43 million tons, the highest since November, according to the survey. Crude palm oil production in the Southeast Asian nation probably dropped 4.3% to 1.78 million tons, after rising for two months. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will publish its monthly data on Oct. 10.

Demand for Malaysian palm oil could be lackluster in the coming weeks as Indian festival buyingmost over and soybean oil is now not as expensive compared to palm oil as it was some weeks earlier, said Sathia Varqa, an analyst with Fastmarkets Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore.

Palm oil futures rose as much as 0.9% to 4,488 ringgit a ton in Kuala Lumpur on Friday, before paring gains to trade at 4,448 ringgit by the midday break.

 

French Corn Harvest Advances, Matching 5-Year Average: AgriMer

France’s corn harvest was 24% complete as of Sept. 29, up from 14% in the previous week, FranceAgriMer data show.

• That’s more advanced than the previous season and in line with the five-year average
• 62% of the corn crop was rated in good or very good condition, the same as the previous week but well below the 79% level at a similar time last season

 

Russia boosts rapeseed oil exports almost 1.6-fold to $960 mln in 8M – Agroexport

Russia boosted rapeseed oil exports almost 1.6-fold year-on-year to around $960 million in the first eight months of this year, an increase of 38% in weight terms to over 970,000 tonnes, the Agroexport federal center reported, citing expert assessments.

Agroexport said in its statement that this growth was particularly important in view of the fact that the more competitively priced palm oil and sunflower oil were gradually displacing rapeseed oil from the markets of several countries. However, rapeseed oil still firmly maintains fourth place in terms of exports to all countries. It is used actively in various sectors besides the food industry, for example, in the production of biodiesel.

Citing data from ITC Trade Map, Agroexport said that Russia had been the third largest exporter of rapeseed oil in weight terms last year, behind Canada and Germany. Most of Russia’s exports were purchased by China, followed by Latvia and Norway. Other importers included Belarus, Iran, Tunisia, Israel, Denmark and Uzbekistan among others.

The OleoScope analytics center said that Russia had produced 694,300 tonnes of rapeseed oil in the first half of this year, an increase of 24% year-on-year.

 

Global Food Prices Ease From Near Two-Year High; Meat Costs Rise

Global food prices slightly fell in September, according to an index of food-commodity costs from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Sugar prices fell 4.1% from August to reach the lowest since March 2021
  • “The drop was driven by higher-than-expected sugar production in Brazil and favorable harvest prospects in India and Thailand”
• Dairy prices declined 2.6% with falling costs of butter and higher production prospects in New Zealand
• Vegetable oil and grain prices also declined
• Meat prices increased to a new record high

 

 

 

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