ADMIS News
COFFEE
December Coffee broke out above a two week range overnight and traded to its highest level since September 18. Perhaps traders are getting frustrated with the lack of updates on the potential meeting between President Trump and the president of Brazil. In the meantime, ICE exchange stocks continue to fall. Stocks were down 11,295 bags yesterday to 498,088, their lowest since March 18, 2024. A Reuters report yesterday said there were renewed concerns over dry weather in Brazil, with weather forecasters expecting dry conditions from around October 20 to the month end. Minas Gerais saw some spotty rainfall over the past 18 hours, nothing very substantial or widespread.
COCOA
December Cocoa is hovering around unchanged today and inside yesterday’s move to its lowest level since last November. The market has been under pressure lately on ideas that recent increases in official farmgate prices for Ivory Coast and Ghana will encourage strong arrivals and that generally benign weather will produce a strong main crop, which has just begun to arrive, as well as a decent mid-crop in 2026. However, port arrivals in Ivory Coast have started out slow. Reuters estimated arrivals at 48,000 metric tons for the week ending October 12, down from 87,000 for the same period a year ago and below the five-year average of 67,600. Cumulative arrivals since the 2025/26 marketing year began on October 1 are down 52% from this point a year ago. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said above-average rains across most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa belt last week should support an abundant October-to-March main crop, though farmers warned of potential quality issues if wet weather persists.
COTTON
December Cotton extended its selloff overnight and fell to new contract lows. The market seems headed towards the 60-cent level, which may at least provide some round-number support. The last Crop Progress report to be released (two weeks ago) showed 47% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent versus a five-year average of 40% and the Texas crop 41% G/E versus 26% on average. The last export sales report showed cumulative US cotton sales for 2025/26 were the lowest in 11 years and that sales had only reached 36% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five year average of 53% for that date. Since then, there has been little news to counter the narrative of a decent US crop and poor export demand. Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since May, which lowers the cost of main made fibers.
SUGAR
March Sugar extended yesterday’s selloff overnight and traded to another new contract low. On top of strong crops expected out of Thailand and India and an improving crop in Brazil, France revised its beet forecast higher today. Their farm ministry forecast that nation’s sugar beet output for 2025 at 34.2 million metric tons, up from 31.8 million in last month’s update. This would be 5% above the 2024 harvest and 10% above the five-year average and is despite a decline in planted area. The next UNICA report of Brazilian center-south sugar production (for the second half of September) is expected to be released this week.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
