Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 17th day of partial shutdown. Grains are slightly higher. US stocks are lower on new worries over US credit sources. EU stocks lower on US Bank worries. USD is lower. Crude is lower and near $56, the lowest since 2021. Gold is higher and near 4,390. Trump to meet Putin in next 2 weeks. US Midwest rains in ND. More east Midwest showers Oct 17-22. Brazil to see weekend rains. Argentina next week.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.14. SX held key support which helped trigger fund short covering. Trade over 20 DMA near 4.13 increased new tech buying. Next resistance is near 10.25. Dalian soymeal futures were lower, soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher. SMZ also traded over 20 DMA. BOZ stuck between 20 day and 100 day moving averages. Trump tweet that US may stop business with China cooking oil imports helped US crush companies stock value. C/N Brazil dry with weekend rains key to change to better forecast. US soybean harvest advancing quickly. Soybean buyers adding to coverage. China still not buying US soybeans and may soon tap reserves for crush.
CORN
CZ is near 4.23. CZ held key support and bounced on fund short covering near 4.16 and new buying above 4.20 and 4.21. Close above 4.25 could trigger follow through buying. Some feel corn rally linked to talk of lower IA corn yields. Lack of USDA October report and now maybe November, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Some feel final US corn yields needs to drop below 177 to push futures even higher. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3 pct from ly. Stocks were up 1.6 pct vs ly. Margins remain positive. Corn users adding to coverage.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.03. Wheat futures rallied on talk of increase export activity. Wheat futures battling between oversupply and oversold charts. WZ oversold below 4.90 but key resistance is near 5.09 then 5.20. KWZ is near 4.89. Key resistance is near 4.96. MWZ is near 5.50. Key resistance is near 5.58. NOAA 90 day forecast suggest blow normal south plains rain and above normal temps. Same for Delta and SE.
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