Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 27th day of partial shutdown. Some feel shutdown could end Nov 1 when health care cost increase. Grains are higher. Talk of a China deal including soybeans supporting prices. US stocks are higher on talk of lower rates. USD is unch near 98. Crude remains near $61. Gold is lower. EU and Black Sea wet. Argentina wet. Rains forecast for Brazil. Rains are in E TN, AL, GA, ND and SD.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.77. SF has now rallied 64 cents since October low. SF resistance is near 10.80. China crush margins negative with China lowering hog herd. SMZ remains above 100, 50 and 20 DMA and testing 200 DMA for first time since Feb . Soymeal demand remains strong. BOZ back above the 20 day moving. Talk of Trump/XI meeting has slowed US farmer selling. Brazil soybean planting pace is ahead of average with rains in forecast. Argentina peso is lower ahead of key elections. Argentina could see record soybean crop. Tech buying in control. Bears will be looking to sell rally.
CORN
CZ is near 4.29. CZ resistance is near 4.31. Some report yields improving in WI, N IL, MN, SD and ND. There was talk of increase US farmer selling. Argentina peso lower ahead of October 26. Some est Argentina corn crop could be a record 60 mmt vs USDA est of 53. Trump and XI meeting next week has helped corn futures following soybean higher. Increase logistic challenges is slow Ukraine grain movement to ports. Tech buying in control. Bears will be looking to sell rally.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.22. WX resistance is 5.35. KWZ is near 5.12. MWZ is near 5.64. US inflation is near 3 pct. US Dollar near recent high. Wheat futures this week followed higher corn and soybeans. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. Record Argentina yield could question protein level. This could help US HRW export demand. IGC increased World wheat crop 8 mmt to 827. Russia +1.5, US +1.6 and Argentina +2.0. US wheat export demand improving.
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