Global Ag News For Nov 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Beijing lifts some tariffs on US farm goods but soybeans remain costly

• China ends retaliatory tariffs on a range of US agricultural products
• China maintains 10% tariffs on all US goods
• China diversifies soybean imports, reducing reliance on US

China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports following last week’s meeting of their two leaders, including lifting duties on farm goods, Beijing confirmed on Wednesday, but imports of U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% tariff.

The State Council’s tariff commission announced it would remove the duties of up to 15% it imposed on certain U.S. agricultural goods from November 10, while maintaining the 10% levies introduced in response to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties.

Investors on both sides of the Pacific breathed a sigh of relief when Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, easing fears that the world’s two largest economies might abandon talks aimed at resolving a tariff war that has disrupted global supply chains.

While Trump and the White House were quick to publish their take on the meeting, the Chinese side did not immediately move to provide a detailed summary of what it had agreed.

“Broadly, it’s a great sign that the two sides are making rapid progress in putting the deal into effect,” said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based Trivium China.

“It shows they’re aligned and that the agreement is likely to hold up.”

The tariff cut nonetheless leaves Chinese buyers of U.S. soybeans facing tariffs of 13%, a cost traders said makes U.S. shipments still too expensive for commercial buyers compared to Brazilian alternatives.

“We don’t expect any demand from China to return to the U.S. market with this change,” said one trader at an international trading company. “Brazil is cheaper than the U.S. and even non-Chinese buyers are taking Brazilian cargoes.”

Following the Xi-Trump meeting, the White House said China would purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons in each of the next three years.

Beijing has yet to confirm those figures, and traders are watching closely for signs of large-scale purchases.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 10 3/4; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 14 in SRW, up 9 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 1.14.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.6% in SRW, down 4.5% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.7%; Soybeans up 12.2%; Soymeal up 4.4%; Soyoil up 25.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 1 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil down 22; Palm oil down 34; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 34.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 34 ringgit (-0.82%) at 4109.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 715 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 4 were: SRW Wheat down 2,815 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,373, Corn up 5,714, Soybeans up 16,137, Soymeal down 2,041, Soyoil up 1,615.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected across U.S. over the next 15 days. The western states are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while most other regions may experience below-normal precipitation.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will experience warm weather next week, with below-average rainfall is expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cool conditions during the next 15-day outlook. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in Southeast Asia during the next 15-day period.
• TROPICS: Typhoon Kalmaegi expected landfall on Vietnam Coast followed by heavy rainfall in Northern Thailand.

 

WARMTH WITH ISOLATED WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S.

What to Watch:

• Warm temperature patterns expected in most of the U.S
• Wet spells in the West, Southern Plains and central Midwest
• Frequent warmth continues to support crop progress

  

Northern Plains: A couple of clippers will move through over the next week that should bring some limited precipitation and variable temperatures. Breezy winds may also be an issue, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

Central/Southern Plains: The storm track will be well to the north going into next week, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving into or through the region. That could make for some variable temperatures and occasionally breezy winds. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

Midwest: The region will be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through over the next 10 days or so. One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation will be rather limited. Overall, conditions are still favorable for harvest and other fieldwork.

Delta: Water levels will crest from north to south on the Mississippi River this week. Very little precipitation from a weather pattern that will be promoting clipper systems across the north into next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn’t change to a more favorable one.

Brazil: A front moved into central Brazil over the weekend and will be active with showers through next week as it continually gets reinforced by fronts moving up from Argentina. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

Argentina: Soil moisture in the country is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Multiple fronts will continue to move through this week into next week, which keep conditions overall favorable.

Europe: Drier weather is setting up in the eastern half of the continent for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic may produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

Black Sea: Recent showers have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. Limited showers are forecast this week, generally just for western areas that are in better shape anyway. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: A couple of systems will move through this week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for benefit before harvest and cotton and sorghum are planted.

 

The player sheet for 11/4 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines was believed to have bought around 150,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in a deal last week.
• FAILED MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal-feed barley
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 31 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.099m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.463m bbl vs 22.367m a week ago

 

India rapeseed plantings to hit record highs due to favourable weather, Chinese demand

• Rapeseed and mustard planting likely to rise 7-8% in 2025, trader says
• Domestic demand strong, Chinese buying record amounts of rapeseed meal
• Robust production will allow India to curb imports of cooking oils

India’s rapeseed planting is expected to hit a new high this year due to record Chinese buying of rapeseed meal and above-average rainfall that resulted in favourable soil moisture for the crop.

As the country’s primary winter-sown oilseed, the surge in rapeseed production is also poised to help India, the world’s largest importer of edible oil, limit costly overseas purchases of cooking oils.

“Farmers made great profits from last year’s rapeseed crop, so this year, they’re planting even more of it,” said Anil Chatar, a leading trader based in Jaipur in the northwestern state of Rajasthan.

The combined planting area for rapeseed and closely related mustard is expected to increase by 7% to 8% this year, he said.

Indian farmers typically sow rapeseed in October and November. So far this year, they have planted 4.17 million hectares, a 13.5% increase compared to the same time last year.

The country planted 8.93 million hectares of rapeseed last year, higher than the five-year average of 7.9 million hectares.

There has been good demand for rapeseed oil domestically this year, while strong export demand for rapeseed meal has come from China, said B V Mehta, executive director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

China aggressively began purchasing rapeseed meal from India after Beijing in March imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on rapeseed meal and oil imports from Canada, its top supplier.

In the first six months of the current fiscal year, which began on April 1, China imported a record 488,168 metric tons of rapeseed meal from India, compared to just 60,759 tons for the entire 2024/25 fiscal year, the association’s data showed.

Strong demand for both meal and oil kept rapeseed prices above the minimum support price of 5,950 rupees ($68) per 100 kg set by New Delhi for last year’s crop, said Chatar.

India has increased the minimum support price for the new season’s rapeseed by 4.2% to 6,200 rupees.

“Rapeseed has way more oil than soybeans. If production keeps up with the planting, it’ll help slow down the growth in India’s edible oil imports,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house, who declined to be identified.

India meets nearly a third of its cooking oil demand through imports of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and Russia.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Improves in October: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 129 points in Oct. from 126 in Sept., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 8 points from Sept.
• Future expectations up by 1 point
• “US farmer sentiment improved slightly in October, with nearly all of the small rise in the barometer attributable to an increase in the Index of Current Conditions. There continues to be a big disparity between the views of crop and livestock farmers, with livestock producers much more optimistic than crop farmers ,” according to Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture

 

Bangladesh to Buy $1b of US Soybeans Over the Next Year: Rollins

Bangladesh’s three largest soy crushing companies plan to buy $1 billion of US soybeans over the next year, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says.

• Rollins announced the increase in purchases in a post on X
• The deal triples the amount of soybeans Bangladesh purchased in 2024, she says

 

S&P Global leaves US 2025 corn, soy yield estimates unchanged from last month

S&P Global Commodity Insights left its estimate of the average U.S. 2025 corn yield at 185.5 bushels per acre (bpa), the firm said in a client note on Tuesday, unchanged from its month-ago forecast released on October 2.

S&P estimated U.S. 2025 corn production at 16.803 billion bushels, up from 16.707 billion last month. The firm raised its estimate of harvested corn acreage to 90.587 million acres, from 90.047 million in October.

For soybeans, S&P forecast the average U.S. yield at 53.0 bpa, unchanged from October, and put production at 4.260 billion bushels, compared with 4.261 billion bushels previously.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 4% Y/y So Far in Season to Nov. 2

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 8m tons as of Nov. 2, compared with 8.3m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Morocco (1.5m tons), Saudi Arabia (695k tons) and Egypt (468k tons)
• Barley exports were 3.8m tons, up 117% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 5.4m tons, down 26% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: The commission said export data are incomplete for France since the beginning of 2024
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Commission said it is working to resolve these issues

 

Russia considers grain export quota of 20 mln tons for 2026, lobby group says

The Russian government is considering a grain export quota of 20 million metric tons for the second half of the marketing season, from February 15 to June 30, 2026, according to a draft document published by the Russian Grain Union lobby group on Wednesday.

Last year, the quota was set at 10.6 million tons and applied only to wheat and meslin. The draft document indicated that the government commission is now considering the inclusion of corn and barley in the quota as well.

 

JBS CEO Says Plan Is to Have 100% of Cattle Traceable in Brazil

JBS NV, the world’s largest meat supplier, is committed to Brazil’s government plan to track 100% of its cattle herds as part of an effort to limit deforestation, said Chief Executive Officer Gilberto Tomazoni.

The company has been monitoring its direct suppliers for the past 15 years to ensure that there is no illegal deforestation in its direct supply chain, Tomazoni said during a presentation at Bloomberg Green at COP 30 in Sao Paulo.

It’s a tougher challenge when dealing with smaller, indirect cattle suppliers, Tomazoni said. For that, he said financing is necessary, adding that the company is “inviting” financial institutions to be a part of it.

“If we want to have a fair transition, we have to look to the small producer,” he said.

Brazil’s cattle productivity has improved “substantially,” with JBS currently producing 120% more meat and using 20% less area, the CEO said.

“When you look at the room for improvement, it’s still massive,” he said. “Comparatively, the United States has got half the cattle we have in Brazil, but they produce more meat.”

Tomazoni said COP30 gives Brazil “a unique opportunity” to show how the country represents “the future of food and the future of biofuels.”

 

 

 

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