Global Ag News For Nov 6.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China buys first US wheat cargoes since 2024 after leaders’ meeting, traders say

• China buys 120,000 tons of U.S. wheat for December shipment
• China’s first purchases of U.S. wheat in a year
• Buys one cargo of U.S. soft wheat, one cargo of spring wheat

China has booked two cargoes of U.S. wheat following last week’s meeting between the countries’ leaders, traders said on Thursday, the first such purchases since October last year, signalling easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Investors welcomed the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, which helped ease concerns over the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies that had disrupted flows of goods including key agricultural products.

Beijing on Wednesday announced that from November 10 it would scrap tariffs that it had announced on March 4 for some U.S. agricultural goods. The move includes removing a 15% duty on U.S. wheat.

The purchases of around 120,000 metric tons for December shipment include one cargo of U.S. soft white wheat and one of spring wheat, the sources said.

“This is more of China showing commitment to buy U.S. grains as U.S. wheat is not the cheapest wheat around,” said one Singapore-based grains trader who has direct knowledge of these deals. “So it is more of political move to buy these cargoes.”

China, the top market for U.S. farmers, has turned its vast appetite for U.S. crops into a powerful trade war bargaining chip.

After several rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs, Chinese buyers have largely avoided U.S. farm goods, including wheat and soybeans, in favour of other supplies.

China imported 1.9 million tons of U.S. wheat in 2024, making up 17% of its total imports.

However, China has reduced overall wheat imports this year following large harvests. Wheat imports in January-September dropped 72% from the same period last year.

In another positive sign on the trade front, a shipment of sorghum has been sent from the U.S. to China since Trump and Xi met, the chairman of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council, Mark Wilson, told Reuters.

The U.S. shipped 5.7 million tons of sorghum to China in 2024, accounting for 66% of its sorghum imports.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $6.90; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal down $3.90; Soyoil up 1.38.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.1% in SRW, down 4.5% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.5%; Soybeans up 11.1%; Soymeal up 3.3%; Soyoil up 25.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 64 yuan; Soymeal up 31; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 42; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 41.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 41 ringgit (+1.00%) at 4149.

There were changes in registrations (357 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,072 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 5 were: SRW Wheat up 1,910 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,808, Corn up 2,741, Soybeans up 21,553, Soymeal down 4,835, Soyoil up 4,352.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 06 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected across U.S. over the next 15 days. The western states are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while most other regions may experience below-normal precipitation.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will experience warm weather next week, with wet spells expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: Asia will be mostly near-normal to cool over the next 15 days, except north and central China, which will be warmer for the next 10 days. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in Vietnam/Thailand and south China during the next 15-day period.
• TROPICS: Typhoon Kalmaegi nearing Vietnam; Tropical Storm Fung-Wong intensifying toward Luzon

Cool and wet weather will dominate across Australia into mid-November, slowing the harvest

What to Watch:

• Cool temperatures will overspread most of Australia this week before shifting eastward next week, with the potential for warmth delayed to late November
• Aside from New South Wales, rains will arrive or continue over most areas of the continent through the next 1-2 weeks
• The increase in rains along with cooler temperatures will slow the wheat/rapeseed harvest, though flooding is not a major concern

DRY SPELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE PAMPAS, WHILE SOUTH AND CENTRAL BRAZIL REMAIN WET

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in Central/North Argentina
• Wet spells in South and southwest Center West Brazil

 

Northern Plains: A couple of clippers will move through that should bring some limited precipitation through Saturday. That may include some snow on Saturday as well. Temperatures will fall drastically with that system, but only briefly as temperatures rise next week. Breezy winds may also be an issue, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

Central/Southern Plains: The storm track continues to be well to the north going into next week, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving into or through the region. That could make for some variable temperatures and occasionally breezy winds. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

Midwest: The region continues to be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through the region. One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation should be rather limited. Overall, conditions are still favorable for harvest and other fieldwork.

Delta: Water levels are cresting from north to south on the Mississippi River this week. Very little precipitation from a weather pattern that will be promoting clipper systems across the north will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn’t change to bring more systems through the middle of the country.

Brazil: A front remains active with showers in central Brazil through next week as it continually gets reinforced by fronts moving up from Argentina. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

Argentina: Soil moisture is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Multiple fronts will continue to move through this week into next week, which keep conditions overall favorable.

Europe: Drier weather is setting up in the eastern half of the continent for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic may produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. One of those systems will likely move through the Mediterranean with beneficial showers this weekend and early next week, catching southeastern Europe with showers as well. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

Black Sea: Recent showers have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. Showers are leaving western areas on Wednesday and a stretch of drier weather continues through the weekend. Some showers may be possible next week which may be helpful for some areas. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: One more system will move through to end the week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Spotty showers are in the forecast for next week as well. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for rain to be beneficial before harvest starts up and cotton and sorghum are planted.

China: Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 11/5 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, buyers of 8,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in Wednesday’s international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• FAILED CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have made no major purchases in tenders which closed on Tuesday for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT & BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders’ Committee has issued an international tender to purchase up to 130,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3, and another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales for Week of Oct. 30

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts.

USDA’s export sales report for the week ending Oct. 30 was originally scheduled for Thursday but is delayed indefinitely due to the government shutdown

• Corn est. range 800k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,000k
• Soybean est. range 900k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,400k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.3% to 22.655M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.463 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.123m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.099m

 

USDA November crop report to include field survey data as shutdown drags on

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is collecting survey-based data for its upcoming crop production report scheduled for release on November 14, an official with the agency’s statistical arm said on Wednesday, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

The report will include the government’s first updated estimates of U.S. corn and soybean yield and production since September 12, when most of the Midwestern harvest was not yet underway. The October crop report was not issued due to the shutdown. The USDA’s reports are closely monitored by grain traders globally.

Along with corn and soybeans, the upcoming report will include data on cotton, peanuts, potatoes, rice, sorghum, sugarbeets and sugarcane.

The November crop production report normally includes U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates based on farmer surveys as well as field samples.

“We are collecting the necessary survey and administrative data to support the forecasts in the report,” Lance Honig, an official with the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, said in an email to Reuters.

“We’re using normal collection procedures for both surveys,” Honig said, adding that the agency has been collecting field samples all along.

A year ago, the USDA surveyed approximately 5,840 farmers for its November crop production report.

 

COFCO held soybean procurement signing ceremony, association official tells US-China forum

China’s state-owned COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony on Thursday morning, the head of a Chinese agriculture business association told a U.S.-China forum.

Cao Derong, the president of the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products, made the comment at the U.S.-China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum, which is taking place in Shanghai as part of the China International Import Expo.

He did not give provide details about the signing ceremony, such as how much was purchased or the identity or nationality of the seller.

“China-U.S. bilateral trade has gone through many twists and turns and is now able to proceed normally again,” he said, adding there was “light at the end of the tunnel.”

COFCO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The White House said after a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in South Korea that China would purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons in each of the next three years.

China has not confirmed those figures and traders are watching closely for signs of large-scale purchases.

On Wednesday, China said it will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including duties on farm goods but that imports of U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% tariff.

 

US sorghum shipment heads to China after leaders’ meeting, grains council chairman says

A shipment of sorghum has been sent from the United States to China since last week, Mark Wilson, chairman of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council, said on Thursday, the first known cargo following the recent meeting between the two countries’ leaders.

“I know after the meeting, one shipment of sorghum has been loaded and is coming over,” Wilson told Reuters on the sidelines of the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, adding that he did not know the size of the shipment.

China, the top market for U.S. farmers and the world’s largest buyer of U.S. sorghum, has turned its vast appetite for U.S. crops into a powerful trade war bargaining chip.

After several rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs, Chinese buyers have largely avoided U.S. farm goods, including sorghum, and turned to other suppliers.

Investors on both sides of the Pacific welcomed the recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, which helped ease concerns that the world’s two largest economies might abandon efforts to resolve their tariff disputes.

Beijing on Wednesday announced that from November 10 it would scrap tariffs of up to 15% that it had announced on March 4 for some U.S. agricultural goods. The move includes removing a 10% duty on U.S. sorghum.

However, China will retain the additional 10% levies on all U.S. goods introduced in response to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties.

“I hope that we can get back to normal on sorghum because that’s the number one thing,” said Wilson.

“Before, 95% of the (U.S. sorghum) export market from the U.S. came to China, so we need to get that going again. That’s what I hope happens,” said Wilson.

 

Russia to boost grain quality controls amid falling exports

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture proposed a draft government decree to tighten quality control on exported grain, according to Kommersant daily.

As followed by bne IntelliNews, Russia is facing the worst harvest in five years in the current agricultural season and the grain output and export outlooks have been revised downwards.

The Ministry of Agriculture quality control proposals thus come against a backdrop of falling export volumes and rising buyer demands abroad. This could signal a shift in regulatory focus from volume to quality in Russia’s grain industry.

The move also highlights how storage‑phase quality and data transparency are now seen as key to maintaining the country’s place in competitive global markets.

The measures proposed by the ministry reportedly include a reintroduction of scheduled inspections for medium‑risk grain storage facilities with capacities from 50,000 to 100,000 tonnes and supervision of data entries into the federal grain management system.

The analysts surveyed by Kommersant view the proposals as partly driven by export‑market reputation risk and sustainability of external contracts. They also fit into a broader trend of digitalisation and traceability in agricultural supply chains in Russia.

 

Weather conditions in late October favor crops

Cepea, November 5, 2025 – After the rainfall in Southern Brazil had concerned players, the firm weather in late October has brought optimism. The climate favored the development of the crops. Prices, in turn, moved down due to the harvesting progress.

According to data from Emater/RS, the productivity in Rio Grande do Sul has been oscillating from 2.1 to 4.2 tons per hectare. The harvesting has been progressing rapidly, favored by the dry weather. Activities had reached 27% of the total in the state up to October 30. In Paraná, the area already harvested is at 83% of the total, with average productivity surpassing 3.3 tons per hectare – data from Seab/Deral.

PRICES – Good perspectives for productivity in Brazil, the good crop in Argentina and lower dollar quotations and prices abroad resulted in decreases for monthly price averages.

In October, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,216.53 per ton, downing 9.7% against September/25 and 15.6% in relation to that in October/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,138.41/ton, 9.6% down in one month and -11.7% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.161.58/ton, -7.5% and -24.9% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,263.26/ton in October, decreasing 7% compared to September and 13.4% against that in the same month last year. The US dollar rose 0.36% against Real, at BRL 5.387 in October/25.

IMPORTS – In 18 producing days of October, Brazil imported 459.93 thousand tons of wheat, 17% less than in October/24.

 

Share of milling wheat in Ukraine 2025 wheat harvest rises to 44.3% from 35.4% in 2024, says SGS

The share of milling wheat with at least an 11.5% protein content in Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest rose to 44.3% from 35.4% in 2024, SGS said on Wednesday.

SGS is a multinational company that provides inspection, verification and certification services.

 

Argentina approves $277 million port project for tax break scheme, in boost to agriculture

Argentina’s government has approved a $277 million port project on the Parana River for its large investment tax break scheme, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on Wednesday.

The port, along the key agricultural waterway in the province of Santa Fe, will store fertilizers, iron ore, steel, grains and fuels, Caputo said in a post on X.

With this latest project, total investments under President Javier Milei’s investment tax break scheme, known as RIGI, have surpassed $24 billion, he said. Argentina in September also approved a $2.7 billion copper project by Canadian miner McEwen Copper.

 

2026/27 India wheat area expected to remain stable despite sowing challenges

2026/27 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 114.4 [108.7-120.1] MILLION TONS

India’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is preliminarily estimated at 114.4 [108.7 – 120.1] million tons. The total wheat planted area is expected to remain relatively stable at 32.7 million hectares, supported by the government’s recent 6.59% increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to ₹2,585 per quintal. This move aims to incentivize farmers to sustain or increase wheat production.

The 2025 monsoon season (June–September) concluded with rainfall levels 8% above normal, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. In October, most major wheat-producing regions experienced near-normal to cooler temperatures and above-average rainfall. While the excess rainfall improved soil moisture levels, localized flooding in Punjab disrupted field preparation and shortened the optimal sowing window. In response, the Punjab government launched a relief initiative, distributing free wheat seeds to flood-affected farmers to help restore planting momentum.

The two-week weather forecast indicates generally dry and cooler conditions across major wheat-producing areas, which should support planting progress.

 

Brazil judge suspends legal proceedings on soy moratorium until final decision

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Flavio Dino has decided to suspend ongoing legal proceedings on the so-called soy moratorium until the court reaches a final decision on the matter, according to a ruling seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

The soy moratorium is a corporate pact designed to curb deforestation in the Amazon by restricting soy purchases from newly deforested areas, but has faced opposition from soy producers who argue the pact acts as a cartel.

 

Recent dry weather partially alleviates excessive moisture concern for Argentina soy production

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.4 [42.3–52.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is unchanged at 47.4 [42.3–52.5] million tons, as late October/early November dryness partially alleviates some of the excessive moisture concerns across the southern Pampas. Wetness is likely to return later this week, warranting attention with a sowing season immediately around the corner. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.7 million hectares, slightly above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. In September’s WASDE (released on 12 September), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in August.

Argentina’s core Pampas region welcomed a long-waited dryness late October, after a prolonged wetness period that had lasted for months. Northern Buenos Aires, southern Córdoba, and La Pampa/San Luis – where excessive moisture conditions dominated most of the crop fields during August and September – received less than 50 mm of precipitation over the past 30 days up to 100 mm below normal (or less than 40 mm of precipitation over the past 15 days up to 60 mm below normal), providing a much needed relief to the wet soils. Despite the recent brief relief, another round of wetness is in the forecast later this week, warranting close attention as it could now have a legitimate impact on the progress of early sowing which is about to take place in full swing.

First crop soybean planting normally begins early November, but no detailed progress estimates are available yet according to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires. In Argentina early soy planting typically ends in December, but second crop soybean (otherwise known as double crop soybeans) planting can occur until January once wheat is harvested. The planting windows for soybeans are narrower than those for corn, which makes November-December weather conditions crucial especially regarding the sowing sequence/pace. According to the LSEG Weather Research team’s latest December-February ENSO analysis, the La Niña event is forecast to prevail through the end of the year and may not completely dissipate by early next year, which can be a critical factor in determining final yield. La Niña conditions are most frequently associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region. The current overall high soil moisture conditions should provide some decent buffer against it early in the season, but could start depleting quickly, warranting attention.

 

 

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