Aluminum Recovers from Two-Week Low

Base Metals

Copper: Copper prices are higher, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME up 0.6% to $10,744, continuing to face resistance at the 21-day moving average at $10,776. The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled a new list of critical minerals it deems essential to the US, adding copper, which is vital to electric vehicles, power grids, and data centers. The administration is expanding the list amid efforts to boost domestic mining and cut reliance on imports, particularly from China.

Copper demand in China continues to show signs of slowing; China’s copper imports dropped in October, official data showed on Friday, as high prices dented demand for the metal. Copper imports slid to 438,000 metric tons in October from 485,000 tons a month earlier, a 9.7% drop, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. For the year through October, China imported 4.46 million tons of copper, down from 4.60 million tons during the corresponding period last year. Copper concentrate imports slid to 2.45 million metric tons in October from 2.59 million tons a month earlier. The Yangshan copper premium is around $36 a ton, down from $58 in late September and over $100 in May, signaling weak appetite for imported copper. This coincides with softer-than-expected PMI data out of the country as well. The RatingDog General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in October, missing forecasts and showing declines across most subcomponents except employment. The survey was conducted amid geopolitical tensions, including tariff threats from President Trump, which may have weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s official PMI fell to 49.0, marking a six-month low and the seventh consecutive contraction in factory activity.

On the supply side, Freeport-McMoRan said in an SEC filing that it has restarted operations at two mines at its Grasberg copper complex. Meanwhile, Chile’s Codelco revised its 2025 output forecast lower, though it remains above 2024 levels. Chile’s national copper output fell 4.5% year-over-year in September. Other major producers such as Glencore, Anglo American, and Freeport-McMoRan have all reported lower production or sales.

Zinc: Zinc gained 0.5% to $3,062.

Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.2% to $2,851. Aluminum prices fell to a two-week low on Thursday as a decline in the equities market hit sentiment towards base metals and offset support from improved demand and limited output growth in China. Investors have built up record long positions, with a collective net long position above 130,000 contracts, the first time since early 2022. Outright long positions of 198,744 contracts, equivalent to almost five million tons, are the largest collective bet on higher prices since the LME first started publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in February 2018.

Tin: Tin was up 0.3% to $35,950.

Lead: Lead added 1% to $2,051.

Nickel: Nickel firmed by 0.2% to $15,060.

Precious Metals

Gold: Gold prices edged higher as a weaker dollar, a sell-off in equities, and mixed private economic data led to safe-haven buying. Gold saw choppy trading on Thursday as Challenger’s job cuts report showed US employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October and that seasonal hiring plans were the lowest since the firm started collecting hiring plans data in 2012. The report, paired with a sell-off in equities, led to heavy buying in the bonds, bringing down yields and offering support for gold. Fed Funds futures are currently showing a 66% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, offering room for volatile movements in the dollar and in gold. Meanwhile, ADP payroll data pointed to a better picture of the labor market, with its report beating expectations of private sector hiring, and as ISM’s services PMI report showed no signs of widespread layoffs among respondents. The PMI data also showed that the prices index increased to 70 in October from 69.4 in September, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector.

The government shutdown has entered its 38^th day, making it the longest-ever shutdown in history, continuing to stir uncertainty regarding upcoming data out of the government. Focus in markets has been shifting to the macro landscape and when the shutdown might end.

Data from the World Gold Council yesterday remained supportive of gold prices. Global gold ETFs saw inflows hit five months in a row, attracting $8.2 billion during October and pushing their total AUM 6% higher to another month-end peak of $503, while holdings climbed 1% month-over-month to 3,893 tons. Gold market trading volumes continue to rise, reaching an all-time high of $561 billion per day in October, a 45% increase over September. Global demand hit a record high last quarter as well. Strong investment flows, robust buying in India and China, and continued central bank purchases all provide gold with strong fundamentals.

Silver: Silver moved higher, with December US futures up 0.5% to $48.20.

Platinum: Platinum rose 0.75% to $1,549.

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