Global Ag News For Nov 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Mexico imposes 156% tariff on sugar imports

Mexico on Tuesday implemented a new tariff for sugar imports due to falling international prices and a risk of oversupply in the domestic market, according to the country’s Official Gazette.

The new tariff of 156% per kg applies to all types of sugar, including beet sugar and syrups. Refined liquid sugar will be subject to a 210.44% tariff, according to a decree signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and published in the Official Gazette on Monday night.

Until now, imported sugar faced tariffs of between $360 and $390 per ton.

Mexico is typically not a sugar importer, although in the last three sugar production cycles, foreign sugar purchases have risen significantly due to bad weather conditions that caused a drop in local production, along with lower exports to the United States.

“This tariff scheme provides greater protection for domestic product,” Carlos Blackaller, the head of Mexico’s main sugarcane producers’ organization, told Reuters.

The tariff would give Mexican sugar a “slightly higher price season” in the local market for the 2025/26 season, which is just beginning.

“It practically eliminates the possibility of sugar imports into Mexico,” he said, adding that sugar imported in the last three seasons totaled just over one million tons.

Mexico produces an average of around 5 million tons of sugar per year, of which just over 4.0 million are destined for local consumption and the rest for export to the U.S. and the world market – which pays a lower price than the U.S.

The sugar industry association, which represents sugar mill owners, did not respond to a request for comment.

According to the decree, the new 156% tariff is ad valorem, meaning it includes insurance, freight and costs, Blackaller said.

For the 2025/26 sugar cycle, production is estimated at 5.2 million tons of sugar, a recovery from the 4.7 million tons of the previous harvest. However, the current sugar export quota to the U.S. is only 188,000 tons.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil down 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 1/2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 1/9 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 15; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 1.35.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3/4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, up 1/6 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 16 3/4; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil up 2.26.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.5% in SRW, down 7.2% in HRW, down 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 5.6%; Soybeans up 12.3%; Soymeal up 3.5%; Soyoil up 28.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil down 8; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 13.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 13 ringgit (-0.31%) at 4124.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,134 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 11 were: SRW Wheat down 3,552 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,012, Corn down 27,757, Soybeans up 7,135, Soymeal up 3,503, Soyoil up 6,118.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 11 NOVEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The U.S. will experience a dry spell through the end of the week before heavy southern rains appear in the forecast, with minimal impacts on crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: Widespread rains could hit the Argentina Pampas in late November, but dry weather prior to that time will facilitate corn/soybean plantings
• AFRICA: A moderate weather outlook will prevail across South Africa through the next couple weeks, which should not hinder maize planting progress
• AUSTRALIA: Cool temperatures and regional rains could slow the Australia wheat/rapeseed harvest through the next 10 days
• TROPICS: Fung-Wong has weakened into tropical storm, and it will graze southern Taiwan tomorrow with strong winds/flooding

Warmth will return to the U.S. in a big way as the week unfolds, persisting late into the month

What to Watch:

• Temperatures will warm up from west to east across the U.S. into next week, with reinforcement in late November
• Wet weather will be confined to the far southern areas of the country through the next couple weeks in a quiet outlook
• A warm and dry forecast for major U.S. crop regions will facilitate the completion of winter wheat plantings

 

Northern Plains: Cold air has been replaced by warm air here on Tuesday. A system will move through on Friday and Saturday, but with limited showers. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Temperatures are rising on Tuesday with above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A system will move in this weekend. Models are unsure of its development, but could mean widespread precipitation and strong winds into early next week. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

Midwest: Lake-effect snow added up to some hefty amounts around the Great Lakes over the past couple of days. Cold air will be moving out of western areas on Tuesday and eastern areas on Wednesday, with warmer air replacing it into next week. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers on Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise, the region will be drier until this weekend, as models try to figure out how to develop a system across the middle of the country.

Delta: Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. No significant precipitation is forecast this week, but the pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

Brazil: A has settled into central and northern Brazil where showers will continue this week. Another front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain as well. One more front will move into southern areas this weekend and the forecast has increased precipitation along it. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

Argentina: Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. Another front will bring showers through on Tuesday and Wednesday, and one more will move through this weekend. The forecast has increased showers with that front, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on less frequent frontal passages, or at least fronts with less rainfall potential. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

Europe: Scattered showers went across southern areas this weekend into Monday. Limited showers have also moved through western areas and continue in a couple of waves this week as well. Milder and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent.

Black Sea: Showers in October improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system will bring through limited showers over the next couple of days, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Drier conditions are favored for most of the week, but a system moving through eastern areas late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

 

The player sheet for 11/11 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

China’s COFCO seals billion-dollar Brazilian soybean, palm oil deals

State trader COFCO’s oilseed unit said on Monday it has signed agreements to purchase Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil and other agricultural products, with a total volume of nearly 20 million tons worth over $10 billion.

The contracts with traders including ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus were signed last week at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, COFCO Oils & Oilseeds said in a statement on its official WeChat account.

The statement made no mention of U.S. farm goods. Beijing has made modest purchases of American agricultural products, including some soybean cargoes bought by COFCO as goodwill gestures amid improving trade ties with Washington.

Despite easing some tariffs on a range of U.S. agricultural goods, China has kept a 10% levy on all U.S. imports, limiting expectations for a broader trade recovery.

Soybean tariffs, for example, have dropped from 23% to 13%, still too high for private buyers.

Traders are watching for any large purchases by state firms such as COFCO after the White House said Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons by the end of the year.

China has not confirmed the figures.

 

China’s soybean glut could defeat US export hopes after trade thaw

• Little room for U.S. soybeans in China after record LatAm buys
• China to struggle to buy 12 mln tons trumpeted by White House
• Soybean stocks at China’s ports at record 10 mln metric tons

China is grappling with a glut of soybeans after months of record imports, curbing prospects for U.S. exports despite a recent trade truce that Washington said includes a pledge by Beijing to resume heavy purchases.

Traders and analysts warn that vast stockpiles at ports and in state reserves, coupled with weak crush margins, limit Beijing’s appetite for further purchases.

“State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. “Even with tariff waivers, margins remain negative and Brazilian beans are still cheaper.”

After President Donald Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month officials in Washington said China had agreed to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end and 25 million tons in each of the next three years.

China has not publicly committed to making purchases, although it suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, while state buyer COFCO has booked only a few cargoes for December and January shipment, traders and analysts say.

 

Indonesia Consumed 12.1M Kiloliters of Biodiesel as of Nov. 6

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, has consumed 12.1 million kiloliters of palm-based biodiesel this year through Nov. 6, according to Director General for New and Renewable Energy Eniya Listiani Dewi.

• NOTE: Indonesia this year implemented a B40 program — mandating a 40% mixture of palm-based biodiesel with gasoil — with an allocation target of 15.6m kiloliters for the full year
• Govt will continue preparations to roll out a B50 mixture, including by preparing road tests and carrying out a study on the availability of funds for biodiesel incentives in the next six months, Dewi tells lawmakers on Tuesday

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 4% Y/y So Far in Season to Nov. 9

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 8.4m tons as of Nov. 9, compared with 8.7m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (1.5m tons), Saudi Arabia (695k tons) and Nigeria (500k tons)
• Barley exports were 3.9m tons, up 118% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 5.6m tons, down 25% y/y
• NOTE: The commission said export data are incomplete for France since the beginning of 2024
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Commission said it is working to resolve these issues

 

Russia Has Harvested 140m Tons of Grain, Patrushev Says: IFX

Russia has harvested over 140m tons of grain this year in bunker weight, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev says, according to Interfax.

• NOTE: Russia Has Harvested Over 135m Tons of Grain This Year: Interfax

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 4.26 Million Tons In November – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.26 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 3.77 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.47 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 2.23 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.04 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 5.57 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Argentina Increases Bioethanol, Biodiesel Prices: Gazette

Argentina raised the minimum prices for bioethanol and biodiesel blended with traditional fossil fuels effective Nov. 10, according to resolutions 443/2025 and 445/2025 published in official gazette.

• Price of bioethanol made from sugarcane was set at 918.025 pesos ($0.65) per liter
  • Price of bioethanol made from corn was set at 841.394 pesos per liter
• Price of biodiesel was set at 1,688,961 pesos per metric ton

 

U.S. wheat production unchanged as winter crop sowing season wraps up amid modest weather

2026/27 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 51.7 [49.1–54.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2026/27 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production remain unchanged at 33.01 million acres and 36.6 million tons, respectively. Due to the recent government shutdown, USDA’s crop progress reports have been suspended since 01 October. All the relevant data flow have abruptly halted as well. Local studies indicate winter wheat plantings are mostly in full swing with little issues, and in many states ahead of schedule coming to an end, thanks to recent favorable modest weather conditions. Latest short-term weather forecasts (GFS & EC) indicate a continuation of moderate warm and dry weather across the Upper Midwest and most of the Plains into late November, with few sporadic potential cold snaps. The soil moisture conditions remain relatively healthy throughout most key HRW wheat regions in the Plains, but some core areas of the SRW (soft red winter) wheat belt (including Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan) are in need of water supply, warranting attention. One important item to watch around this time of year is the potential for significant cold anomalies during December–February, which could increase the risk for winterkill damage to the dormant crop if realized. This risk appears to be low at the moment according to our LSEG weather research team’s latest ENSO analysis (released on 09 October).

 

European Nations Seek One-Year Delay to Deforestation Law

European Union nations are pushing for a one-year delay of a landmark law to curb deforestation across the world, seeking more time to comply with it than proposed by the bloc’s executive arm.

Representatives of member states signaled support for the delay at a meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels Wednesday, according to people with knowledge of the talks. The law in its current form is set to take effect at the end of the year.

The latest proposal would remove the need for an additional grace period of six months that the European Commission put forward, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations were private.

The EU’s Deforestation Regulation aims to tackle the felling of trees associated with imports into the bloc of key commodities from soybeans and coffee to cocoa and palm oil. But it’s faced criticism at home and abroad for being too bureaucratic.

The commission’s proposal is currently being discussed by the European Parliament and member states in the EU Council, with each of the institutions having the right to propose amendments. The final shape of the law will be agreed in negotiations that will also involve the commission.

Denmark, which is chairing the talks among member states as the holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, stressed on Wednesday the urgent need to agree a joint negotiating position to avoid a situation where the law enters into force in its current form, according to the people.

While member states strongly supported the delayed starting date, they remain divided on whether the law needed to be simplified further and if it needs a new review clause, the people said.

 

France Ups Soft-Wheat Crop Estimate, Cuts Corn 10% Y/y: Ministry

France’s soft-wheat output is now seen at 33.3m tons this year, slightly up from October’s estimate of 33.2m tons, according to an agriculture ministry report on Tuesday.

• Still, that’s almost 30% above 2024’s historically low production and 4.7% above the five-year average
  • NOTE: France’s soft-wheat harvest ended in August
• The winter-barley harvest is now seen at 8.36m tons, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 8.4m tons
• Corn production, excluding seeds, is seen at 13.2m tons, down from October’s estimate of 13.5m tons
  • That’s 9.7% below last year due to heat waves and drought in the summer that affected yields
  • NOTE: France’s corn harvest started in early September
• Durum-wheat production steady at 1.28m tons
• Rapeseed harvest steady at 4.6m tons

 

Thailand Opens Door to US Corn Under Its Zero-Tariff Pledge

Thailand plans to scrap levies and sharply expand its feed-corn import quota next year to make room for American supplies, part of its concessions in US trade negotiations.

The Thai government will raise the annual quota for feed-corn imports to one million tons, from 54,700 currently, while cutting the existing 20% in-quota tariff to zero, government spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat said Tuesday.

The move will help Thailand meet its pledge to buy more US farm products in exchange for lower tariffs on its exports. Dropping import duties will also make corn from the US — the world’s largest supply source — more competitive against Southeast Asian producers that already enjoy duty-free access under a regional trade pact.

“The measure is to ensure Thailand has sufficient raw materials for domestic animal feed production and support the trade team’s proposals in the negotiations with the US,” Siripong told reporters after a cabinet meeting.

Imports of US corn will be permitted only between Feb. 1 and June 30 to avoid overlapping with Thailand’s main harvest in the final quarter and to protect local farmers. Feed mills will also be required to purchase three portions of locally grown corn for every one portion of imported supplies.

The policy shift follows Thailand’s decision to ban feed-corn imports from countries that use crop burning starting next year, in an effort to curb cross-border air pollution. That new rule is already expected to favor US shipments, as most of Thailand’s current corn imports come from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia, where slash-and-burn farming remains common.

Earlier this year, the US — which is Thailand’s biggest export market — agreed to lower tariffs on Thai exports to 19% from a previously threatened 36%. That came after months of negotiations and Thailand’s promise to scrap import levies on about 99% of American goods.

A US-Thailand joint statement on the trade framework last month outlined preliminary commitments, including Thailand’s pledge to buy US agricultural products — including feed corn and soybean meal — valued at about $2.6 billion annually.

Thailand’s total feed demand is projected to rise to 21.8 million tons this year, up from 21.1 million tons in 2024, according to the feed mill industry’s estimates. About 60% of the country’s feed ingredients — mainly corn, soybean meal and wheat — are imported.

Separately on Tuesday, the Thai government has suspended a peace process with Cambodia that was a condition for tariff negotiations with US President Donald Trump, after Thai soldiers were injured in a land-mine blast near the border.

 

 

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