Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government shutdown is over. Flurry of data including export sales and CFTC fund activity could be delayed until next week. Key USDA crop report tomorrow. Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is higher but tested $58 overnight as OPEC flipped Q3 from deficit to surplus supply. Gold is higher. Coffee continues lower. Cattle and hogs were lower. NE Argentina remains wet. NE Brazil dry. Forecast showers reduced over most of Brazil.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.37. There were no new SX soybean deliveries. This week, attention will be on Fridays USDA report. Some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,266 mil bu vs USDA Sep 4,301. Trade also est US 2025/26 soybean carryout near 304 mil bu vs USDA Sep 300. Range of est is 187-494. Some feel extreme range could suggest a swing of $2 dollars up or down in future prices. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 450-1,600 mt. Dalian soybean, soymeal and vegoil futures were higher.
CORN
CH is near 4.48. Corn futures following soybeans. Managed funds continued evening up positions before USDA report. Trade est US corn crop at 16.557 mil bu vs USDA Sep 16,814. Trade also estimates US 2025/26 corn carryout near 2,136 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate od 2,110. Range of est is 1,944-2,470. Some feel extreme range could suggest a swing of 50 cents up or down in future prices. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,000-2,000 mt. Dalian corn futures were higher on continued debate over flood related corn crop losses.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.48. KWH is near 5.38. MWH is near 5.83. USDA should increase Canada, Argentina, Australia and Russia crops on Friday. Trade est US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 867 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate of 844. World wheat stocks 266.1 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-600 mt. SocEcon est Russia 2026 wheat crop at 83.8 mmt vs 87.8 this year due to lower acres. USDA est is near 85.0.
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