Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stock are lower led by tech stocks. USD was slightly higher. Crude is sharply lower on talk of new US plan for restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton and bitcoin are lower. GSI commodity index lowest value since July, 2025. NOAA 3 month US forecast calls for below normal temps north and above south. Rains are above north and below south. South America weather is mostly favorable for crops. Univ of Mich consumer sentiment survey reported 44 pct of middle income respondents said their financial situation lower than a year ago.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.17. SF below 20 DMA for first time since mid October. Short US futures week next week due to holiday. USDA announced 462 US soybeans sold to China. China Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower due to higher soybean stocks, lower crush margins and influx of US soybeans. This could trigger sales from reserve. Brazil rains are moving into dry C and NE crop areas. International Grain Council (IGC) dropped World soybean crop 2 mmt to 426 and vs 429 ly. Brazil was on Holiday. Argentina soybean plantings are near 25 pct.
CORN
CH is near 4.36. CH support near 100 DMA and 4.35. Corn futures followed lower soybean and soymeal. Brazil was on holiday. Argentina corn planting is 37 percent. Dalian corn futures were higher. International Grain Council (IGC) increased World corn crop 1 mmt to 1.298 bil tons.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.37. KWH is near 5.20. MWH is near 5.79. WH support is 50 DMA and 5.35. USDA announced 132 mt US white wheat to China. Argentina wheat futures are making new lows. Argentina harvest is near 24 pct. Rains are forecast for US HRW and SRW crop areas. International Grain Council (IGC) increased World wheat crop 5 mmt to 2.43 bil tons. Sovecon increased Russia 2025 wheat crop to 88.6 mmt vs 87.8 previous and est 2026 crop at 83.8 mmt. Saudi Arabia announced a tender for 300 mt US wheat. Argentina wheat prices continue to slide lower. Quality is down and close to feed wheat.
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