Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices are higher, although the metal is set for a weekly decline after September’s nonfarm payrolls report and October’s meeting minutes offered little clarity on how the central bank will move in December. However, NY Fed President Williams said another rate cut could be “near term,” which helped contribute to bets of a December cut. Odds of a December rate cut are now at 70%, substantially higher from yesterday’s 39%. On the other hand, Boston Fed President Collins in an interview, said that the September jobs data were mixed and she was not surprised by the uptick in the unemployment rate in September. Collins also said she was “hesitant” to get too far ahead with rate cuts while inflation is still high and financial conditions are accommodative.
The Fed’s October meeting minutes released earlier in the week highlight a growing divide among policymakers on how to move on Policy. The minutes showed that there is a contingent of policymakers who view it appropriate to keep rates on hold for the remainder of the year, while “most” see further easing as likely. However, “several” of those in that contingent said that a December cut was not necessarily appropriate, while “several” also said a December cut “could well be” appropriate. The minutes reveal that there may not be majority support for a December rate cut, though most are looking towards cutting rates in the future towards a more neutral policy.
The long-term outlook for gold will remain supported by continued central bank purchasing.
Silver: Silver futures fell 2.0% to $49.30.
Platinum: Platinum fell 0.15% to $1,515.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices on the LME prices were down 0.4% at $10,700 earlier in the morning as mixed expectations of how the Fed will move in December weighed on the metal alongside a substantial selloff in the equities market on Thursday. Data on Thursday showed that China imported 279,944 tons of copper cathodes in October, down 22.1% year-on-year and 15.7% on a monthly basis.
Sentiment in China has been weighed down by several factors including a prolonged property sector slump and slower power grid spending. Some reports have suggested that Beijing may roll out new measures to support the struggling real estate market. Other industrial data has been uninspiring even as major infrastructure and green energy investments support long-term demand. Speculation has been growing that Beijing will target the copper refining industry in its drive to reduce overcapacity, following calls from China’s nonferrous metals association for tighter oversight of new smelting projects. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan said it plans to restore large-scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, following a fatal incident that forced operations to halt in September.
Zinc: Zinc retreated by 1.3% to $2,978.
Aluminum: Aluminum lost 0.8% to $2,792.
Tin: Tin was down 1% at $36,700.
Lead: Lead fell by 0.8% to $1,994.
Nickel: Nickel shed 0.4% at $14,450.
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