Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher on new ideas US Fed could drop rates in December. Bitcoin is lower. US, Ukraine and EU in Geneva discussing Bleack Sea peace deal. Overnight, Russia and Ukraine exchanged missile attacks. Trump and XI reported a good phone conversation. Trump to China in April. US rains are in east Midwest and east Delta. Short trading week due to Thursday holiday.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.26. Soybean complex struggling for direction. USDA announced 123 mt US soybeans to China. Total sales still below US/China trade deal of 12 mmt before end of 2025. US soybean exports to date are down 45 pct vs ly and USDA down 13. There is talk that last week China bought 10 Brazil soybean cargoes. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean plantings near 81 pct with crop forecasted at 177 mmt vs USDA 175. Argentina soybean crop 24 pct planted with same analyst est crop at 49 mmt vs USDA 48.5.
CORN
CH is near 4.38. US corn exports are up 72 pct vs last year and USDA est up 9. US PNW best price for Asia buyers. US gulf needs to compete for N Africa and Middle East buyers vs lower Brazil prices. Trade fears sales are front loaded and could soon slow. US corn harvest 96 pct. Corn, like soy complex lacks new fresh news. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher. Same crop analyst est Brazil first corn crop 93 pct planted with crop est at 140 mmt vs USDA 131. He est Argentina crop 37 pct planted with crop est at 54 mmt vs USDA 53.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.37. KWH is near 5.25. MWH is near 5.75. Saudi Arabia bought 300 mt wheat expected to be from Black Sea. US wheat exports ae up 20 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Argentina and Black Sea still cheapest. US winter wheat crop rated 48 pct G/E vs 45 last week and 55 ly. KS 59, MO 58, OH 62, OK 40, TX 26, WA 50. Matif wheat futures made new contract low close.
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