ADMIS News
COFFEE
March Coffee edged higher overnight but is back lower this morning. The lifting of the tariffs on US coffee imports from Brazil sent the market sharply lower on Friday, but it quickly bounced off its lows as the trade still sees a tight global supply situation. Antwerp. In June, USDA had the world stocks/use for 2025/26 at 12.85%, the second lowest on record and below 15% for the third year straight, and since then, Conab and Safras & Mercado have lowered their estimates for Brazil’s output. There was also mention that Brazilian farmers are looking for better prices. ICE certified stocks increased 3,146 bags on Monday to 405,215, their highest since November 11, but they are still hovering around their lowest level since March 2024. Stocks have increased in three of the last four sessions, and all of the increases have been in Antwerp. Heavy rains in Vietnam has raised some quality concerns. Brazil rainfall has improved the outlook for their 2026/27 crop.
SUGAR
March Sugar is looking at a double-top at 15.05 from November 14 and 19 that it could test today. Reports from India indicate that with world prices below domestic rates, mills there will struggle to meet the 1.5-million-ton export quota that the government has allowed. In Brazil, Sugar’s share of crushing fell below 50% in October for the first time since the marketing year began in April. As of November 1, cumulative sugar production from Brazil’s center-south region was 1.6% above a year ago, but that was primarily due to sugar’s share of crushing having averaged 52% for the marketing year to date, as cumulative cane crush was down 2% from year ago. For the second half of October, sugar’s share had dropped to 46%. We expect the next update, covering the first half over November, to be released late this week or early next.
COTTON
March Cotton is higher overnight as the market seems to have rejected Friday’s contract low. The weekly Crop Progress released Monday afternoon report showed 79% of the US cotton crop had been harvested as of November 23, up from 71% the previous week but down from 83% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 80%. Texas was 70% harvested, up from 60% last week, the same as a year ago, and below the five-year average of 75%. Georgia was 80% harvested, up from 70% last week, 76% a year ago and above the five-year average is 75%. The export sales report covering the week ending October 9 will be released today, as the USDA follows an accelerated schedule to make up for the reports that were missed during the shutdown. Last week’s report showed a net sales of 198,985 bales for the week ending October 2, the second week in a row they were almost 200,000 bales. Another strong week would help build a case in traders’ minds that US export pace is beginning to turn. As of October 2 cumulative sales for 2025/26 had only reached 39% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 56% for this point in the marketing year. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net short 76,326 contracts as of October 7, which is close to a record and leaves the market vulnerable to short covering. This next update will be released this afternoon, and it will cover up to October 14.
COCOA
The liquidation train keeps going for cocoa, with the market sitting just above Monday’s contract low here on Tuesday morning, as Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals continue at a strong clip. The total was 102,000 metric tons for the week ending November 23, down from 105,000 the previous week but up from 94,000 for the same week last year. This is the third straight week they were above 100,000. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 618,000 tons, down 3.9% from last year versus being down 6% last week and down 9.7% the week before that. The gap keeps narrowing. Ivory Coast farmers interviews by Reuters said above-average rainfall in most of Ivory Coast’s main growing regions last week is expected to support further development of the main crop. ICE stocks fell 9,638 bags on Monday to 1.724 million, their lowest since March 14.
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