ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar gains broke above double-top resistance at 15.05 on Wednesday and traded to its highest level since October 25, and it was holding those gains early Friday. Analysts have started to temper their forecasts for the global surplus in 2025/26, and that and the fact that at the low early this month, nearby sugar prices had fallen 50% from the November 2023 12-year high have set the market up for a corrective rally. The UNICA report on Brazilian center south production for the first half of November is expected to be released early next week, and trade expectations call for a strong harvest/crushing pace for the period. A survey of analysts by S&P Global calls for the cane crush to come in around 18.85 million metric tons, which would be up from 16.41 million from the same period last year (+14.9%). Sugar production is expected at 1.075 million tons, up from 904,000 a year ago (+18.9%), and ethanol production at 1.371 billion liters, up from 1.082 billion last year (+26.7%). Sugar’s share of crush is expected to fall to 41.94% from 43.14% a year ago. If the expectations prove true, it would put cumulative sugar production for 2025/26 up 2% from a year ago. Tuesday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net short to 162,053 contracts of sugar for the week ending October 14, their largest net short since November 2019. The record net short is 234,839 from September 2019.
COCOA
March Cocoa was higher early Friday, and for the second straight session it probed above the 9-day moving average. This follows a move to its lowest level since October 2024 earlier this week in the wake of strong Ivory Coast arrivals. After a $1,789 decline from the November 5 high to this week’s low, sellers may have grown cautious. ICE stocks fell 1,270 bags on Wednesday to 1.709 million, their lowest since March 14. Stocks have declined for 13 straight sessions. Tuesday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net short 2,027 as of October 14. This is the first time they have been short since October 2022. With the market currently about $600 below the close on that day, we suspect the net short has gotten even larger. The COT update will be on December 2, and that will cover the week ending October 21. A representative of Ecuador’s National Cocoa Exporters Association told Reuters said Tuesday that they expect their nation to export more than 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026. Ecuador is expected to pass Ghana in 2026 to become the world’s second largest producer.
COFFEE
March Coffee was slightly higher early Friday and managed to reach its highest level since November 18. The market quickly reversed higher last Friday after a sharp, one-day break off the news that the US was lifting its tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, and it is back inside the consolidation range that has confined it since its contract high in October. Coffee is drawing support on expectations for global supplies to remain tight until the Brazilian harvest in mid-2026. Reuters reports that torrential rains over the past week in Vietnam have delayed cherry picking and processing. Typhoon Koto is forecast to hit the central region of Vietnam early next week; it is not expected to directly impact the coffee belt, but it could bring another round of rain. ICE certified arabica stocks increased 5,385 bags on Wednesday to 408,939, their highest since November 10. Stocks have increased in four of the last six sessions. This growth in stocks may limit the market’s upside potential.
COTTON
On Wednesday, March Cotton traded to its highest level since November 14 and experienced its highest close since November 12. The next export sales report will be released today (Friday), and it will cover the week ending October 16, as USDA works to catch up after the government shutdown. Tuesday’s report showed net sales of 157,636 bales for the week ending October 9. This was down from 198,985 the previous week and 198,985 the week before that. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 4.571 million bales, down from 5.144 million at this time last year and still the lowest since 2015/16. Sales have reached 41% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 56% for this point in the marketing year. We suspect that anything over 200,000 bales would be greeted enthusiastically by the bulls, and perhaps anything over 160,000 would lend support. Sales have been above 150,000 for the last three reports. The week ending September 25 showed sales of 199,506 bales, and sales for the week ending October 2 were 198,985.
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