Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
January Crude Oil was higher early Friday and had reached its highest level since November 20. The slow back and forth over the Russia/Ukraine peace discussions between representative of the US and Ukraine and representatives of the US and Russia is keeping the market in a choppy, back and forth action. Russian President Putin said on Thursday that outline draft being discussed by the US and Ukraine could become the basis of future agreements to end the conflict, but if not, Russia would fight on. Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia is expected to lower its January crude price for Asian buyers for a second straight month to its lowest level in five years. OPEC+ is expected to hold its production quotas steady for the first quarter of 2026 when the group meets Sunday.
PRODUCTS
The EIA stocks report on Wednesday showed distillate and gasoline stocks had bigger than expected increases for the week ending November 21.
NATURAL GAS
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have below normal temperatures hanging around the northeastern quadrant of the lower 48 states out through December 11 with and normal to above normal pattern returning to the resto of the nations. In the meantime, cold and wintry weather should boost heating demand and perhaps spark draws in US gas supply over the next couple of weeks. As of Wednesday, LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 states had risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 in October and above the previous record high of 108.3 from August. They were also projecting average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, to reach 140.1 bcfd next week, up from 122.6 expected this week.
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