Written Commentary
CORN
CH is near 4.47. CH has been in technical rally since November low near 4.34 to 100 MA near 4.50 on drop in open interest. USDA announced 273.9 mt US corn were sold to unknow believed to be S Korea. As of October 16, US total corn export commitment is near 33.5 mmt vs 23.5 ly. Private estimates of US 25/26 corn carryout is near 2,360 mil bu vs USDA 2,154. Final US feed/residual is est closer to 5,795 mil bu vs USDA 6,100. For the month of November, CH trading rage was 4.34 to 4.57. Slowdown in farmer selling and good export sales offers support. Record large World 25/26 crop offers resistance.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.35. BOF is testing the 100 DMA. USDA announced 312 mt US soybean were sold to China. Estimates of how many US soybeans have been sold to China ranges from 3.0-5.0 mmt. Weekly US exports sales were 1,100 mt. As of October 16, US total soybean export commitment is near 14.6 mmt vs 23.8 ly. Private estimates of US 25/26 soybean carryout is near 470 mil bu vs USDA 290. Final US exports are est closer to 1,500 vs USDA 1,635. Agroconsult est Brazil 2026 crop a record 178.1 mmt and exports near 112.0 mmt vs 109.0 this year. China Jan-Oct used cooking oil exports were 2.2 mmt vs 2.3 ly of which exports to EU were 951 mt vs 490 ly, Singapore 599 mt vs 358 ly and US 379 mt vs 1.0 mmt ly. China Jan-Oct soybean imports were 95.6 mmt vs 89.9 ly of which Brazil was 70.8 vs 67.7 and US 16.8 vs 15.0.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.40. KWH is near 5.31. MWZ is near 5.81. WH has been in a technical downtrend since Nov high near 5.68 to low near 5.31 on sharp drop in open interest. Argentina and Russia remain aggressive seller of export wheat. Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout closer to 888 mil bu vs USDA 901 due to higher exports. USDA est World wheat stocks near 271.4 mmt vs 261.4 last year.
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