Global Ag News For Dec 1.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Australia expands grain-fed beef exports as US production falters

• Australian grain-fed beef prized in Asian markets
• Half of cattle sent to slaughter may be grain-fed by 2027
• Feedlots ease impact of drought on beef production

Six thousand Black Angus cattle chew on rolled barley, silage, cottonseed and molasses, fattening up in three rows of shaded pens under the hot Australian sun.

After an average of 90 days at the Gundamain feedlot, their weight can increase as much as 50% to around 600 kg (1,323 lb), all to meet rising global demand for juicy grain-fed beef.

Gundamain is part of a structural change in the cattle industry in Australia, whose vast pasturelands and small population have made it the second-largest beef exporter, shipping meat worth $8.6 billion in the first nine months of this year, according to customs records.

The rise of feedlots is helping Australia supply beef more consistently for export and take market share from U.S. exporters in Asian countries that prefer grain-fed meat.

“We’re constantly being asked for product,” said Tess Herbert, whose family owns and runs Gundamain, around a four-hour drive west of Sydney.

The feedlot plans to double its capacity to 12,000 head in the coming years, she said. “If our supply chain is asking, we’re going to address that. And the only way to do so is by expanding.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 4 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 0.28.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil up 1.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.0% in SRW, down 7.4% in HRW, down 2.8% in HRS; Corn is down 5.6%; Soybeans up 13.5%; Soymeal up 2.7%; Soyoil up 29.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 3 yuan; Soymeal down 6; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil up 42; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 20.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 20 ringgit (-0.49%) at 4094.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 368 Soymeal; 176 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 28 were: SRW Wheat up 1,919 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,287, Corn down 8,595, Soybeans up 5,634, Soymeal down 482, Soyoil down 2,864.

 

Northern Plains: Cold air will continually be reinforced across the region through next week, with large variability between storm systems that bring down that colder air. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will come down every couple of days.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers favored the east over the weekend, with snow in eastern Nebraska. Another system will move through on Monday with a streak of snow across the north. Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and another shot of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward, though another front may push through later next week.

Midwest: Heavy snow fell across a large portion of the region this past weekend, followed by a round of intense cold. Another system will move through on Monday into Tuesday with another couple of streaks of snow. A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another massive push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region, basically ending any shot of late fieldwork.

Delta: A system went through with scattered showers over the weekend and included some pockets of heavy rain. Another system will move through on Monday with scattered showers. The heavier precipitation up north included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation have helped to raise water levels some, but they are still low. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

Brazil: Showers were very isolated over the weekend in central and northern Brazil. The forecast did not verify very well and the region is still lacking in soil moisture. A front will move through southern states on Monday and the front is forecast to enhance precipitation over central Brazil as it stalls for the rest of the week. The lack of significant rainfall is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

Argentina: Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being quite heavy in some spots. Showers leave on Monday and then the region goes dry again, probably for an entire week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather are likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

Europe: Scattered showers favored the northwest and southeast portions of the region over the weekend, but most areas on the continent have had widespread precipitation lately. Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest this week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

Black Sea: Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

 

The player sheet for 11/28 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported on Friday that exporters sold 312,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 273,988 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown buyers, all for 2025-26 delivery.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency was believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday seeking up to 125,000 tons.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was November 20.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 1.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 9.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Oct. 16

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 16, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Netherlands with 248k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 2.29m tons
• Report was initially delayed due to the US government shutdown; click here for USDA’s announcement and schedule for releasing reports missed during this period

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Oct. 16

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 16, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 20.1k tons of the 37.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Brazil farmers plant 86.97% of 2025 soybean area, Patria Agronegocios says

• BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 86.97% OF 2025 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 89.54% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

Ukraine’s 2025 Grain Harvest May Reach 60m Tons: Deputy Minister

Ukraine’s harvest this year may reach 60m tons of grains and up to 20m tons of oilseeds, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi said in an online statement.

• “Approximately two-thirds of the products will be exported, so Ukraine remains an important guarantor of global food security and a reliable partner for the world,” Vysotskyi said
  • A significant amount will be processed within the country
• As of Nov. 28, Ukrainian farmers have already harvested 52.6m tons of grains and 17.1m tons of oilseeds: Ministry

 

Ukraine’s Grains and Legumes Exports Down 32% Y/y as of Nov. 28

Ukraine’s exports of grains and legumes have totaled 12.14m tons since the start of marketing season on July 1, down 32% from a similar time last year, according to an agriculture ministry statement.

• Shipments as of Nov. 28 include:
  • 7.3m tons of wheat, down 17% y/y
  • 1.17m tons of barley, down 37% y/y
  • 3.47m tons of corn, down 50% y/y
• The total amount for November is 2.76m tons, down 23% y/y
• Ukrainian farmers are finishing the sowing campaign, having already planted 6.43m hectares of winter crops, the agriculture ministry said this week
  • That’s 98% of the planned area, and slightly ahead the planted area by a similar time last year
  • Total includes 4.7m hectares of winter wheat vs 4.4m hectares by a similar time last year

 

India Makes Rare Long-Term Soyoil Buys to Secure Cheap Supply

Indian buyers have secured large purchases of soybean oil for the four months to July, a rare move in anticipation of rising prices of rival palm oil.

Traders have locked in more than 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil for each month from April to July 2026, said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of the country’s top vegetable-oil buyers. The unusual buying was driven by soy’s average $20- to $30-a-ton discount to palm during that period, he added. Soy oil typically trades at a premium to palm oil.

The rush reflects market expectations that palm prices will rise on top producer Indonesia’s plans to blend more palm oil into biofuel starting in the second half of next year. Unlike soybean, sunflower, or rapeseed oil, palm is harvested year-round and is the world’s most-abundantly available vegetable oil, which usually makes it the cheaper option.

“This is a considerably huge coverage in the forward months as the market is sensing palm shortages next year due to lesser production and more usage when B50 in Indonesia is rolled out,” said Mayur Toshniwal, president and head of trading at Emami Agrotech Ltd., an Indian vegetable oil and biodiesel processor.

Indian buyers have been making forward purchases of soybean oil as a hedge against Indonesia’s B50 policy, Budiman Suwardi, head of treasury and markets at Prime EcoHarvest Commodities, confirmed. “If Indonesia’s government suddenly pushed for the B50 to be implemented in the second half of next year, it might push palm prices higher due to lack of supply for exports,” he said.

Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter, plans to expand its biodiesel mandate from 40% to 50% in late 2026 to cut fuel imports. The move is likely to soak up exportable supplies, tightening global markets and pushing up prices. Officials are weighing a partial rollout of B50, only for the public sector, reflecting concerns over potential supply bottlenecks.

Alongside hedging against Indonesia’s biodiesel policy, traders are also bracing for potentially tighter sunflower oil supplies as poorer Black Sea and European crops threaten to curb output this season, according to Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

Sunflower oil shipments from the Black Sea region are priced $230- to $250-a-ton higher than South American soybean oil for delivery in the four months through July 2026, Acharya said. He added that soybean oil cargoes for December and January are as much as $110 a ton more expensive than the forward purchases that traders have booked.

Still, every ton of palm oil currently remains about $90–$100 cheaper than soybean oil, underscoring a pricing divergence and prompting cost-sensitive Indian traders to shift toward palm in the near-term, Acharya said. He added that some buyers have canceled soy oil import cargoes worth 25,000–35,000 tons as domestic prices are roughly $50 lower per ton.

That means overall demand for soybean oil imports has been muted despite the winter season, said Toshniwal of Emami. Buyers prefer soy oil in colder temperatures, which cause palm oil to solidify.

 

Australia set to raise crop estimates as harvest exceeds expectations

Australia is likely to raise its wheat, barley and canola production estimates this week, with timely pre-harvest rain in the south and higher yields in the west boosting output, a survey of analysts shows.

Australia is a major agricultural exporter and is currently harvesting winter crops. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) will publish updated production estimates on Tuesday.

Higher wheat output will add to plentiful global supply that is holding benchmark Chicago prices near their lowest levels since 2020.

Four of five analysts surveyed by Reuters have raised their estimates since mid-October.

Their median estimates are now for Australia to produce 36.1 million metric tons of wheat, 400,000 tons more than their previous median, 15.75 million tons of barley, 750,000 tons more than in mid-October, and 6.9 million tons of canola, up 400,000 tons.

Those numbers suggest that Australia will produce its third-biggest wheat harvest on record, largest-ever barley haul and second-biggest canola crop, exceeding last season’s production of 34.1 million tons of wheat, 13.3 million tons of barley and 6.4 million tons of canola.

ABARES, in its last report in September, forecast that Australia would reap 33.8 million tons of wheat, 14.6 million tons of barley and 6.4 million tons of canola.

“I’ve increased my numbers for Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria,” said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia.

“Showers in the last days of October were really beneficial for Victoria in particular,” he said.

More recent rain in parts of Western Australia is, however, likely to lead to quality downgrades.

Between 2 million tons and 3 million tons around Esperance was at risk of being downgraded to feed quality, said Nick Carracher at consultants Lachstock.

The wheat crop has been reaching receival points at a slow pace as growers who invested in on-farm storage in recent years hold back grain, said a source at an international trading company.

As of November 27, Australia’s wheat harvest was 33% complete, the barley harvest was 43% done and canola was 51% done, according to Digital Agriculture Services (DAS), which calculates progress using satellite observations.

 

Indonesia Cuts CPO Reference Price to $926.14/Ton for December

Trade ministry cuts crude palm oil reference price to $926.14/ton in December, from $963.75/ton in November, according to a statement posted on the website.

• Reference price lowers CPO export tax to $74/ton for December
• NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy of 10% of the reference price
• Cocoa reference price set at $5,977.46/ton

 

Indonesia’s January-October palm oil export volume up 7.8% y/y

Indonesia exported 19.49 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in the January to October period, up 7.83% by volume from the same period last year, the statistics bureau said on Monday.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. GAPKI, Indonesia’s palm oil association, usually releases its own figures at a later date, covering more products, and so has different export figures.

 

Indonesia’s GAPKI sees no major impact from Sumatra floods on palm oil production

Indonesia’s largest palm oil association GAPKI said on Monday it saw no major impact yet on palm oil production due to devastating floods on the island of Sumatra.

GAPKI secretary general Hadi Sugeng told Reuters most areas hit by the floods and landslides were residential and not palm oil plantations, adding “there were no complaints yet from our members. So far they reported all is fine.”

 

Malaysia’s November Palm Oil Exports Seen At 1,263,298 Metric Tons – Amspec Agri

MALAYSIA’S NOVEMBER PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,263,298 METRIC TONS VERSUS 1,501,945 METRIC TONS IN OCTOBER – AMSPEC AGRI

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Irregular weather slows sowing and raises productivity uncertainties

Cepea, 28 – Soybean sowing for the 2025/26 season continues to move at a slower pace than last year, due to irregular rainfall over the past three months in Brazil.

In the South, excess moisture is still limiting access to fields, while in the Central-West, the heterogeneous distribution of rainfall has kept soil moisture below ideal levels for planting progress.

According to players surveyed by Cepea, the scenario brings uncertainties regarding productivity in the 2025/26 crop.

Conab reports that soybean planting had reached 78% of the area in Brazil up to November 22, below the 83.3% observed in the same period last year.

PRICES – Brazilian producers remain more cautious about trading new batches, focused on crop activities and on international price increases, which have supported domestic values. On the other hand, lower export premiums have limited gains in Brazil.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 1.5% from October to November (up to Nov 27), to close at BRL 134.68 per 60-kg bag, the highest real average of the year (IGP-DI October/25). The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1.8% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 140.39 per 60-kg bag, the highest level in three months.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Higher domestic demand boosts prices in BR

Cepea, 28 – Domestic demand for corn increased again this week, boosting prices in most regions surveyed by Cepea. Some purchasers returned to the spot market to replenish inventories and schedule deliveries for the end of 2025.

Sellers, in turn, remain away from closing trades, focused on summer crop activities. In addition, export parity and firm exports continue to support the market.

In the coming months, the arrival of the US crop, the need for Brazilian farmers to clear storage space, and high stocks in Brazil may limit gains in domestic corn values.

The ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices rose 1.4% from Nov. 19-27, to close at BRL 68.62 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 27. In the month, the Index has increased 3.7%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values rose 1.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

The average in Paranaguá (PR) increased 0.4% from Nov. 19-27 and 0.8% at the port of Santos (SP). The US dollar advanced 0.3% in the same period, closing at BRL 5.354 on Nov. 27.

 

Kazakhstan exported 3.1 million tons of grain in September-November period

Kazakhstan, the largest grain producer in Central Asia, exported 3.1 million tons of grain from the new harvest from September 1 to November 27, the agriculture ministry reported on Monday.

In 2025, Kazakhstan had a record grain harvest of 27.1 million tons. With a yield of 16.6 centners per hectare, 20.3 million tons of wheat were harvested.

In 2024, Kazakhstan harvested 26.7 million tons of grain, including 18 million tons of wheat.

Kazakhstan traditionally supplies grain to neighbouring Central Asian countries, as well as Iran, Azerbaijan, and Afghanistan.

 

Eight more suspected swine fever cases as Spain struggles to limit export damage

Eight more wild boar with suspected cases of African swine fever were discovered near Barcelona, La Vanguardia newspaper reported on Sunday, as Spain struggles to limit the damage to a pork export industry worth billions of euros a year.

The newspaper cited sources close to the Catalan agriculture ministry. Two cases have been confirmed, and 12 others have shown signs they may also have the disease but are undergoing tests to confirm this. If confirmed, it would bring the number of infected animals to 14.

The Catalan government, which declined to confirm the number of cases, on Sunday requested the help of specialists from the army to contain the outbreak.

About a third of Spanish pork export certificates have been blocked after the first outbreak of swine fever in Spain – the European Union’s top pork producer – since 1994, Spain’s agriculture minister said on Saturday.

“Of the 400 export certificates to 104 countries, a third are blocked. We are working to open them as quickly as possible,” Agriculture Minister Luis Planas told a press conference.

Planas said the value of the country’s pork exports is 8.8 billion euros ($10.2 billion) a year. “Our task is to keep international markets open,” he added.

African swine fever is not harmful to humans but spreads rapidly among pigs and wild boar. A number of countries have already reacted to its spread in Spain.

Taiwan’s agriculture ministry said on Saturday it had banned all pork products and live pig imports, while China has banned pork imports from Barcelona province, a Chinese Customs document seen by Reuters showed.

Britain on Friday said it would temporarily stop imports of pork meat from Catalonia, and Mexico has suspended imports of pork products from Spain.

 

 

 

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