Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Next USDA report Dec 9. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are lower awaiting new US data and Fed policy. US companies fired or reduced payroll the most last month since early 2023.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.17. There were no new daily sales announced to China. Soymeal futures may be in trouble both technically and fundamentally with SMF dropping below Nov low. BOF dropped to 51 on no new EPA policy news. ABARE est Australia canola crop at 7.2 mmt and 2nd higher on record. SF dropped below the 20 DMA support near 11.20. Trade es Oct 30 US soybean export sales near 600-2,000 mt vs 1,449 week of Oct 23. China was back buying Brazil soybeans for Jan-Feb. Talk that China may delay buying rest of 12 mmt US soybeans that was talked about until 2026 is negative.
CORN
CH is near 4.42. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher due to debate on size of local crop. CH near 4.40 support on weight of growing World corn supply. Brazil weather is favorable C/N but S Brazil is dry. Some have lowered Brazil corn crop est to 134 mmt due to late planting due to late soybean plantings. Ukraine harvest running behind normal. Some est that 25-30 pct of corn crop is yet harvested. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break down weighs on Ukraine export price. Trade es Oct 30 US corn export sales near 800-2,500 mt vs 1,805 week of Oct 23.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.38. KWH is near 5.29. MWH is near 5.78. Argentina wheat crop protein down and could be more feed wheat. Canada is expected to increase their crop to 38.5 mmt vs their Sep est of 36.8. Big crops get bigger. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break raises cost of Black Sea wheat export price. Trade es Oct 30 US wheat export sales near 250-650 mt vs 499 week of Oct 23.
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