Global Ag News For Dec 4.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine Grain and Oilseed Exports May Rise 5% This Season: Group

Ukraine may export 49 million tons of grains and oilseeds in the season that started in July, though that depends on how badly Russian strikes damage logistics, the Ukrainian Grain Association said in a statement.

• That compares with 46.7 million tons last season
• Ukraine’s crop exports are being threatened by Russian attacks on the country’s energy facilities, ports and railways
• Ukraine’s wheat harvest is seen at 22.5 million tons in 2025, similar to last year, with exports potentially reaching 16.5 million tons this season
• The barley harvest probably fell around 13% to 4.9 million tons; exports may total 2.3 million tons
• The corn harvest is seen expanding 24% to 32 million tons due to favorable weather; shipments may be 25 million tons
• The sunflower seed harvest is seen at 11.5 million tons, compared with 12.8 million tons last year

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil down 0.04.

For the week so far wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, up 2 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 19 3/4; Soymeal down $6.50; Soyoil down 0.43.

For the month to date wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 19 3/4; Soymeal down $6.50; Soyoil down 0.42.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.5% in SRW, down 6.8% in HRW, down 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 5.9%; Soybeans up 12.0%; Soymeal up 0.9%; Soyoil up 29.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal down 11; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 48; Corn up 18 — Malaysian Palm is down 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 47 ringgit (-1.13%) at 4106.

There were changes in registrations (79 Soyoil, -3 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 227 Soymeal; 173 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 3 were: SRW Wheat up 2,020 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,207, Corn down 10,627, Soybeans up 7,026, Soymeal down 1,288, Soyoil up 3,906.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 03 December 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold air outbreaks will keep the U.S. storm track confined to the far southern regions of the country until the middle of next week in a quiet outlook for winter wheat regions
• SOUTH AMERICA: Aside from a brief cool spell next week, Argentina heat risks will be persistent into the foreseeable future to the detriment of corn/soybeans
• AFRICA: Cool/wet weather through the next 1-2 weeks across South Africa will benefit early maize development
• EAST ASIA: Warm and dry conditions over the major winter wheat regions of China into mid-December will be favorable for the dormant crop
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) began to weaken in November, but it remains in a negative phase event that will support dry weather from Argentina into Southern Brazil as long as it persists

 

ARGENTINA DROUGHT RISKS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Argentina will experience hot/dry weather on balance into the foreseeable future, elevating downside risks to corn/soybeans
• Cool/wet conditions over most Brazil crop regions through the next couple weeks will create a favorable outlook, though drought will persist in the far south
• Moderate weather is in store for Paraguay over the next 1-2 weeks in a positive outlook for corn/soybeans

 

Dry weather will expand across Australia into the foreseeable future, accompanied by a warming trend

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

• Warm temperatures will build across Australia through the next 10 days before temporary moderation may occur
• Widespread dry weather will arrive in Australia, persisting for at least the next 2-3 weeks
• The trend toward warmth/dryness should facilitate the completion of the Australia wheat/rapeseed harvest

 

Brazil: A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers. Rainfall amounts on Tuesday were promising as models have not forecast this well in recent weeks. The current lack of significant soil moisture is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

Argentina: Argentina will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend into early next week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

Northern Plains: Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region through this weekend. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days. Warmer air will spread into the region next week, but may only be brief.

Central/Southern Plains: Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward for a brief period.

Midwest: A strong cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region.

Delta: Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation in the Delta have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. Though some showers will move through the south on Thursday, the lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

 

The player sheet for 12/3 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought about 810,000 to around 900,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Wednesday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A South Korean flour mill group bought an estimated 30,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 58,244 metric tons of rice to be mainly sourced from China.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley that closed on Wednesday, European traders said. Jordan was expected to issue a new tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley in the coming days, with the anticipated submission of price offers on December 10, traders said.
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn that can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers was November 20. Bangladesh’s state grains buyer also issued other international tenders to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers due on December 1, December 9 and December 15.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.5% to 22.511M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.093 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.126m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.089m

 

More US soybean shipments to China due to load through mid-December

• Shipping data shows multiple soybean vessels to load at Gulf Coast terminals for China
• Soybean shipments follow trade talks between Trump and Xi in South Korea
• USDA has confirmed 2.25 million tons in US soy purchases by China for 2025/26

Shipments of U.S. crops to China are accelerating after a tense tariff war had stalled trade for months, with at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

A seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded over the past weekend and is already en route to China, the first such shipment since May.

The cargoes would be the first physical deliveries of U.S. soybeans purchased by China following trade talks between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October.

The shipments also eased concerns among some traders that the purchases reported last month by Reuters and later confirmed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture could be canceled amid a supply glut in the world’s top soybean importing nation or later switched to rival exporter Brazil, where prices are considerably lower.

U.S. farmers and grain traders have been waiting for shipments to begin after the trade talks and, according to the White House, a vow by Beijing to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of the year. Beijing has not confirmed details from that meeting, including any vows to purchase sizable volumes of U.S. soy.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last month that the Trump administration expects to News Story with China by this week. She said on Tuesday that the administration would unveil an aid package next week for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade turmoil.

Benchmark soybean futures Sv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third straight day on Wednesday on rising concerns that the 12-million-ton target would not be met by the end of this month.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed just 2.25 million tons in Chinese purchases to date for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year that ends in August 2026. Analysts and traders estimate actual sales could be nearer to 3 or 4 million tons as some individual deals were under USDA’s reporting threshold while others were reported to undisclosed destinations.

Still, the total purchases remain well short of the volumes seen before the trade war. China’s absence from the market had pushed down the price of soybean futures to near five-year lows.

The cargo vessel Tokugawa was being loaded with soybeans on Tuesday, and the vessel Katagalan Brave was set to load in the coming days, according to shipping data. Four others – RB Eden, Hua Xing Hai, Donna Alexandra and SSI Dominion – were due to arrive for loading over the next two weeks.

U.S. sorghum shipments to China have also restarted for the first time since March. One cargo vessel, the Bungo Queen, is currently loading at a Texas Gulf Coast terminal, and a second ship, the YM Navigator, is due to load late next week at a terminal in the Pacific Northwest, shipping data showed.

 

Export of meal from Russia in 2025-2026 agricultural year may reach record 4.4 mln tonnes – IKAR

Exports from Russia of high-protein meal produced from sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans in the 2025-2026 agricultural year may reach a record 4.4 million tonnes compared to 3.9 million tonnes a year earlier.

However, the realization of this export potential, primarily for soybeans and soybean meal, may face insufficient demand, putting producers, especially in the Far East, in a difficult position, the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko said.

“In this season, thanks to a colossal soybean and rapeseed harvest and generally a decent sunflower harvest, we are getting a roughly record amount of meal for domestic consumption – consumption of almost 10 million tonnes, and a record supply – 14.5 million tonnes. And for export we get 4.4 million tonnes, which will also be a record,” Rylko said at the Pig Farming 2025 scientific and practical conference in Moscow on Wednesday.

According to IKAR’s forecast, the sunflower harvest this year may amount to 16.6 million to 16.8 million tonnes, the rapeseed harvest may be 5.43 million tonnes and the soybean harvest 9.35 million tonnes. “Despite a slight dip in sunflower, due to the colossal soybean harvest and a very large rapeseed and flax harvest, we get about 32 million to 33 million tonnes of oilseeds. This will be a record,” he said.

At the same time, Rylko said that a key feature of the current season is that for the first time in its history, Russia is reaching full self-sufficiency in soybeans and soybean meal (key feed markets) from the European part of the country. “We get a rather serious surplus, which needs to go somewhere. And all else being equal, our price should fall below the so-called export parity in order to export this conditional surplus outside the country,” he said. However, he recalled that soybean exports are restrained by a 20% duty. “Therefore, if we export, the conditional surplus from the European part will have to be exported in the form of meal,” he said.

Soybean prices have decreased in all macro-regions, even falling below flax prices, which themselves have “fallen into the abyss,” Rylko said. Only in the last two weeks has there been a trend towards price stabilization, although information from the Far East indicates prices are already below 25 rubles per kg. “In the Far East, the situation with soybeans looks extremely difficult for local producers,” he said, noting that “China is buying a little this year,” and transporting soybeans to the European part of the country costs a lot of money.

 

Russian agricultural organizations reduce grain sales 15.8% in 10M – Rosstat

Russian agricultural organizations reduced sales of grain 15.8% year-on-year to 54.6 million tonnes in 10M 2025, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said on Wednesday.

The country boosted grain sales 4.3% year-on-year to 9.1 million tonnes in October, though the figure declined 15.5% month-on-month.

Russia boosted sales of livestock and poultry in live weight 0.9% year-on-year to 11.5 million tonnes in 10M, with sales rising 0.4% year-on-year and 3.4% month-on-month to 1.2 million tonnes in October. Milk sales increased 4.4% year-on-year to 17.5 million tonnes in 10M, as well as 6.2% year-on-year and 1.2% month-on-month to 1.7 million tonnes in October.

Poultry farms boosted egg sales 6.7% year-on-year to 29.7 billion units in 10M, as well as 8.8% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month to 3.2 billion eggs in October.

 

Brazil Chicken Exports Seen Rising Up to 3.4% in 2026: ABPA

Brazil is expected to export as much as 5.5m metric tons of chicken next year, according to a report by animal protein industry group ABPA.

• That compares to 5.3m tons of exports expected this year
  • NOTE: Chicken export volumes in 2025 were hurt by a temporary suspension of shipments to key destinations after a bird-flu case in a commercial farm was reported in May
• Chicken production set to rise 2% to 15.6m tons in 2026
  • That’s up from an estimated 15.3m tons in the current year
• Brazil pork exports seen rising 4% to 1.55m tons in 2026
• Pork production in the coming year seen rising 2.7% to 5.7m tons
• Eggs exports to grow 12.5%, totaling as much as 45,000 tons in 2026

 

Brazil Amazonian state postpones cattle tracking key to preventing deforestation

Brazil’s state of Para has delayed the deadline for the introduction of tracking devices in its cattle herds, a blow to environmental efforts to introduce a regional policy that advocates say is key in preventing deforestation.

According to a decision published in the state’s official gazette on Wednesday, Governor Helder Barbalho has allowed the identification of bovine and buffalo to be completed by December 31, 2030.

Previously, Para cattle ranchers had until January 1, 2026 to identify the herd with ear tags, provided they had their animal transit records in order. The final deadline for identifying and tracking all of the state’s animals was January 1, 2027.

Improvements in cattle traceability efforts would be a powerful tool to choke off ranching in illegally deforested farms in Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, according to environmentalists.

In a statement, non-profit Imaflora said the extension of the compliance deadline in the Amazonian state is a response to ranchers’ requests regarding what they see as “challenges” of putting the measure into practice.

“The ambitious deadline originally set was in line with the urgency imposed by climate change and created a favorable environment for generating innovative public policy solutions,” Imaflora said.

Para has a herd of 26 million head, nearly the same size as Australia’s, and is Brazil’s second-biggest cattle-herding state after Mato Grosso.

Implementation of Brazil’s national cattle tracking program will be in four stages, according to a Ministry of Agriculture norm issued this year. Under the norm, the federal government will ban all movement of cattle and buffalo that are not individually identified and registered in the official system from January 1, 2033.

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.