Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 ½ higher while holding within yesterday’s range. Spreads were mixed. Mch-26 continues to consolidate near its 50 day MA while holding within a $4.35-$4.55 range, possibly into year end. Exports sales the week ended Nov. 13th at 94 mil. bu. bring YTD commitments to 1.603 bil. bu. up 30% from YA, vs. USDA forecast of up 12%. Mexico was the main buyer that week with 30 mil. The USDA announced a flash sale of 186k mt (7.4 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Sept-25 census exports at 275 mil. bu. were a record high for the month up 63% from YA. They were also above the inspections data at 246 mil. In the week ended Nov. 10th MM’s bought another 32k contracts of corn reducing their net short position to 39,500 contracts. Conab kept their Brazilian production forecast at 139 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 131 mmt. The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their 2025/26 Argentine corn production forecast unchanged at a record 61 mmt, also above the USDA est. of 53 mmt. The RGE estimates plantings have reached 57%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed in 2 sided trade as beans were up $.01-$.02, meal was up less than $1 while oil was down 25-30 points. Spreads across the complex were steady to higher. Jan-26 beans ranged from $.05 higher to $.05 lower with neither the bull or bear able to gain the upper hand. Jan-26 meal was able to end a run of 9 consecutive lower closes. New low for the month in Jan-26 oil. As expected yesterday’s Oct-25 census crush was a record at 237 mil. bu. NOPA will be out with their crush figures from Nov-25 on Monday. Export sales the week of Nov. 13th at 26 mil. for beans brought commitments to 676 mil. bu. down 41% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 13%. The USDA made flash sale announcements of 264k mt (9.7 mil. bu.) to China and 226k mt (8.3 mil.) to unknown. Meal sales at 358k tons brought YTD commitments to 8% over YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. There were net oil cancellations of 29 mil. lbs. reducing YTD commitments to 365 mil. down 39% YOY vs. USDA down 64%. Known sales to China, including flash sales, currently sit at nearly 3.4 mmt (124 mil. bu.). Small deals not yet reported likely take overall commitments in the 4-5 mmt range. To reach 12 mmt by the end of Feb-26 weekly sales will need to reach roughly 720k mt (26 mil. bu.) obviously much lower if stretched out to the end of the 25/26 MY. Sept-25 census exports at 105 mil. bu. were down only 4% from YA. In the week ended Nov. 10th MM’s bought another 16k contracts of soybeans, 17k meal, while selling 3k bean oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.01 lower in KC to $.04 higher in CGO. Mch-26 CGO has 50 and 100 day MA resistance at $5.42 ½. Mch-26 KC fell to a fresh 2 month low. Export sales the week ended Nov. 13th at 31 mil. bu. brought commitments to 666 mil. bu. up 24% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Sept-25 census exports at 119 mil. bu. were up 31% YOY. Cumulative sales over the first 4 months of the 25/26 MY at 367 mil. are up 19%. In the week ended Nov. 10th MM’s bought nearly 12k contracts of CGO wheat, just over 9K in KC while selling 153 contracts of MIAX. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast 3.6% to 7.96 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 7.7 mmt. The RGE raised their Argentine production forecast 3.2 mmt to a record 27.7 mmt, well above the USDA recently revised est. of 24 mmt. Harvest has reportedly reached 58%.
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