Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices are little changed as a stronger dollar and higher yields pressured prices following yesterday’s CPI report, which showed that consumer prices rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, well below forecasts of 3.1%. Core prices rose 2.6% year-over-year, below forecasts and September’s reading of 3.0%. However, the technical fix that was required to collect some of the data due to the shutdown may have biased the figures downward. Additionally, NY Fed President Williams earlier this morning also said that some “technical factors” distorted November’s CPI reading downward. Markets will have to wait for December’s reading to fully understand how price pressures have moved and could see an upward revision to the data.
President Trump said on Wednesday that the next Fed chairman will be someone who believes in lower interest rates “by a lot.” Trump will announce the successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell early next year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a candidate for the Fed chair, said on Wednesday the central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid rising job market weakness. November’s nonfarm payrolls report came in above expectations but showed an uptick in the unemployment rate and largely reflected subdued hiring conditions.
Markets will also monitor any news regarding the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, as the president recently signaled that he expects an unfavorable ruling. President Trump has continuously reiterated that the effects of appealing the tariffs could be disastrous for the economy, signaling that he could be expecting an unfavorable ruling towards his trade policies. Trump did suggest that the tariffs could stay but would require a longer implementation process, while calling the ruling the greatest threat to national security in history.
Silver: Silver futures are up 2% to $66.60. Retail investors have increasingly been more attracted to the metal as an alternative investment tool to gold. Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust through 2030 as growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence drives consumption, the Silver Institute noted in a recent research report. Prices have been further supported by persistently tight supply and falling global inventories, resulting in a supply-demand deficit that is expected to continue over the coming years.
Platinum: Platinum is up 1.3% at $1,986.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices inched higher to approach record highs again as supply fears worried markets again. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was up 0.5% at $11,837 earlier in the morning after hitting a session high of $11,928, near its all-time peak of $11,952 recorded last week. Also supporting copper was bullish sentiment from Goldman Sachs, which highlighted the unique mine supply constraints and structurally strong demand growth for the metal, which is expected to remain strong in 2025.Underlying fundamentals offer the metal a solid floor for prices as supply-side challenges continue and face robust demand due to the technology sector, leading the copper market to be in an expected supply deficit in 2026.
China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low, while retail sales posted their worst performance since the country abruptly ended its “zero-COVID” curbs, highlighting the urgent need for new growth drivers heading into 2026. However, solid growth in key industries such as EVs, AI data centers, and energy infrastructure boosted consumption outlooks. Data center demand construction and further energy infrastructure developments in the US are also expected.
Flows to COMEX warehouses continued due to higher prices in the US, leaving tighter supply elsewhere around the globe. The US excluded refined copper from the 50% import tariffs that came into force in August but kept it under review, which has led to expectations that US tariffs on copper will be announced in mid-2026. That dynamic has lent continued support to LME -COMEX arbitrage, as US inventories of copper approach 500,000 tons. As long as US prices remain elevated due to tariff expectations, flows into the US are expected, keeping LME-COMEX arbitrage trade going.
Zinc: Zinc edged up 0.2% to $3,070.
Aluminum: Aluminum added 0.9% to $2,943. Australia’s South32 said it would place the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance by March after failing to secure a power deal with the government. Morgan Stanley expects aluminum prices to reach $3,250 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 as demand outpaces supply.
Tin: Tin advanced 1.8% to $43,700. The metal used in circuit boards has attracted record long positions from fund managers and is up almost 47% in 2025, making it the best performer in the LME complex.
Lead: Lead added 1% to $1,983.
Nickel: Nickel was up 0.9% at $14,770 a ton after Indonesia’s government proposed reducing nickel ore production by around one-third to 250 million tons next year.
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