Global Ag News For Dec 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Favorable early growing season conditions support Brazil soybean production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.3 [174.1–182.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is unchanged at 178.3 [174.1–182.6] million tons, as sowing season wraps up on schedule and growing season begins amid overall favorable conditions. Our current median estimate is above the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 175 million tons (released on 09 December), which assumes total soy sowings at 48.8 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.59 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 49.1 million hectares and 3.63 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 177.1 million tons and 48.9 million hectares, respectively (released on 11 December).

Mostly positive weather conditions benefited developing crops in the Central-West/South over the past two weeks, where soybean sowing season is practically complete and the early vegetative growth phase has already begun. Brazil’s major soy producers Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná in particular received well above average precipitation during the period (up to 150 mm above normal), retaining high soil moisture levels ahead of drier days through the end of the month. Brazil’s largest and the second largest producing states Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul are maintaining overall healthy soil moisture conditions as well, providing good early season growing foundations. Temperature patterns have been volatile, on the other hand, and cooler conditions are in the forecast across core crop areas of the Central-West and the South, but should remain moderate, easing concerns.

As of early this week, Brazil’s soybean planting season is practically complete or coming to a close in most key producing areas of the Central-West, the Southeast and the South, though in some northern crops regions sowings remain in full swing. The LSEG Weather Research team’s ENSO outlook for December-February suggests that the chances of La Niña during the period are high, hinting above-average rainfall patterns in northern Brazil and potential dryness in its southern counterpart. The potential impacts from a La Niña event on Brazilian crops are difficult to predict as there is little statistically significant relationship between ENSO episodes and crop yield levels in Brazil (unlike in Argentina which displays a strong correlation between the two). Overall soil moisture status and province-level weather conditions should all be monitored closely, as the prime growing season begins.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil up 0.16.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 1/2 in SRW, up 17 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $4.40; Soyoil up 0.51.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 1/4 in SRW, up 5 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 77 1/4; Soymeal down $18.70; Soyoil down 3.60.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.5% in SRW, down 4.7% in HRW, down 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 2.1%; Soybeans up 5.8%; Soymeal down 1.8%; Soyoil up 21.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil up 10; Palm oil up 68; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 1.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 1 ringgit (-0.02%) at 4035.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,130 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 184 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 23 were: SRW Wheat down 1,606 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,970, Corn up 946, Soybeans down 9,511, Soymeal up 1,258, Soyoil down 110.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 23 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Quiet U.S. weather with no major storms will prevail through the end of the year before activity may increase in the south, with minimal impacts on crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heat risks will arrive at the end of the week in the Argentina Pampas, elevating downside risks to corn/soybeans
• EAST ASIA: Warm and wet weather is in store for most of China through the next 10 days in a favorable outlook for winter wheat, though cold risks could increase thereafter
• SOUTH ASIA: Dry conditions will persist for the next couple weeks across India, and hotter weather will also build over time as a negative trend for wheat development
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern will continue in its negative phase for the foreseeable future, which could increase U.S. cold risks early in the new year

 

HISTORIC LEVELS OF U.S. WARMTH THIS WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERN COLD RISKS TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR

Weather Anomaly Severity: High (record warmth possible this week)

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC AIFS

Forecast confidence: High through 5 days, low from days 6-15 due to NAO-based cold risks clashing with warm guidance from some models

Model Change (from previous update): Moderately increased cold risk in extended outlook compared to the prior update

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• Widespread and significant warmth this week (15-30 °F above normal) spanning all major crop regions, reaching record levels toward mid-week.
• Moderately cold temperatures arriving along the Northern U.S. Plains and Upper Midwest during the 6-15 day forecast.
• Most of the Midwest and Central/Southern U.S. Plains will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal in a quiet outlook, with stormy conditions confined to the northern border states.
• Upcoming warmth will be favorable for U.S. winter wheat, though croplands will be more vulnerable to potential cold risks in early January if such conditions extend southward.
• Weather discussion: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will dive into its negative phase and persist there through or beyond the 15-day outlook. This will elevate U.S. cold risks as a likely forecast trend for the extended outlook.

 

Brazil: A front has stalled across the south and will be there for most of the week, producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall, though some flooding may occur. Scattered showers continue over much of west-central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas in the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will get much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

Argentina: A front moved through this weekend with widespread rainfall, but some limited amounts across the south. That front should stall across the far north for most of the week. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: Cold air lurking in Canada may leak into the area over the next few days, but it should be overall warm. A few systems will move through over the next week, but with very limited precipitation in the forecast. A stronger cold front moving through on Saturday will send temperatures down for a day or two before they pop back up next week. Another colder shot could be possible later next week, too.

Central/Southern Plains: Temperatures will be record warm over the next few days. A cold front will move through this weekend with a temperature drop, but will still be near to above normal behind it, and fill back in next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air should awaken the wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

Midwest: Warmer air is flooding the region this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in most areas. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers and a brief burst of some colder air. That should not last long as temperatures rise again early next week. Another front and burst of cold may come in to start the new year, though.

Delta: Warmth continues to melt snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.

Europe: Showers continue across the Mediterranean through most of the week, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

Black Sea: Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues dry for most of the week, with showers coming back in after Christmas Day. Overall, conditions are unfavorable for winter wheat. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free. Some snow will move in with colder air later this week.

Australia: Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition for early growth.

 

The player sheet for 12/23 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said. Jordan was expected to hold a new tender on January 6, they said.
• RICE IMPORTS: Bangladesh approved the import of 50,000 metric tons of white rice from Pakistan under a government-to-government deal as part of efforts to stabilise domestic prices, officials said.

PENDING TENDERS

• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was December 23, and offers must remain valid until December 24, they said.
• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, a copy of the tender sent to European traders showed. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $359.77 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

LIVESTOCK: US Hog and Pig Inventory Rose 0.6% Y/y; Est. -1%

The hog herd totaled 75.545m head on Dec. 1, according to the USDA report released Tuesday on its website.

• Sows retained for breeding totaled 5.952m head, a 0.9% decline from year ago
• Hogs for slaughter rose 0.8% y/y to 69.592m head
• Pig crop rose to 34.998m from 34.875m last year
• Pigs per litter rose to 11.93 from 11.92 last year

 

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Dec. 11

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 11, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 1.38m tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 354k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Dec. 11

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 11, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 8.4k tons of the 23.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Dec. 23: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 soybean and corn planting estimates maintained
• Corn planting advanced to 77.7% complete, while soybeans reached 75.5% complete

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices are high in 2025, despite record crop

Cepea, 23 – Even with the record corn season in 2025, prices increased in most part of the year, being above levels verified in 2024. Considering the three crops of 2024/25, the Brazilian production reached 141 million tons, 22% more than in the season before, boosted by the sharp progress of the second crop, because of the higher productivity in major producing states.

The global corn supply remained practically stable between 2023/24 and 2024/25 crops. The decrease of the production in countries such as Russia, the United States and Ukraine were compensated by the increase in others, especially Brazil, China and India.

Although projections already indicated a higher production in early 2025, the domestic market was significantly affected by reduced ending stocks, estimated at only 1.8 million tons in the first month of the year. Moreover, the high domestic demand, high prices asked by sellers and logistical difficulties boosted corn quotations in the first quarter of the year.

Between January and March, the ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices averaged BRL 81.35 per 60-kg bag, upping 13% in relation to the last quarter of 2024 and a sharp increase of 28% against that observed in the same period of 2024.

Values dropped in the following months because of the high supply due to the summer crop harvesting. Conab indicates that it totaled 24.93 million tons, moving up 9% compared to 2024. Moreover, the good development of the second crop, influenced by favorable weather conditions, reinforced expectations of a high crop in 2024/25, pressing down quotations.

Still, values did not drop in the first semester. The Index averaged BRL 78.20/bag from January to June 2025, 28% more than in the same period of 2024, in nominal terms.

Prices continued to decrease in the beginning of the second semester, influenced by the low demand, since many consumers expected new price drops due to the progress of the second crop harvesting and to estimates indicating a record output in Brazil. In addition to that, Brazil shipped 5.3 million tons of corn from January to July 2025, below the 7 million tons exported in the same period of 2024. Due to the low pace of sales abroad and the progress of the second crop, sellers started to be more flexible about quotations.

The second crop totaled 113.27 million tons, upping 26% compared to the previous season, while the third crop increased 15%, reaching 2.8 million tons in 2024/25. Adding production to initial stocks of 1.8 million tons and imports of 1.7 million tons, the total availability of the 2024/25 season was estimated at 144.67 million tons. The domestic consumption was at 90.56 million tons, with a surplus of 54.11 million tons, according to data from Conab.

Conab indicates that Brazil is likely to export roughly 40 million tons between February/25 and January/26. In case this volume is confirmed, ending stocks may hit 14.11 million tons by January/26, along with the estimated domestic consumption, higher than the 1.8 million tons in the crop before.

Due to high stocks and low pace of exports, especially from July and September, domestic prices dropped again. Still, they remained higher than those verified in the year before, in nominal terms. The average of the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa was at BRL 64.09/bag in these months, 7% above that verified in the same period of 2024.

From October on, producers started to reduce the supply in the spot market, which resumed sustaining quotations up to mid-December.

Thus, the ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index rose 13% in 2025 (up to Dec. 22).

The 2024/25 global corn production was estimated by the USDA at 1.23 billion tons, stable in relation to the crop before. The world consumption was projected at 1.25 billion tons, for an increase of 2%, leading to a 7.5% reduction of ending stocks, forecast at 291.65 million tons.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Record global supply presses down prices in 2025

Cepea, 23 – Soy prices oscillated throughout 2025, in a scenario of high world supply, trade disputes between China and the United States, changes in the policy of “retenciones” in Argentina and the demand increase in several countries. Average quotations were the lowest over the last years in both Brazil and in the international market.

Both the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) registered the smallest annual averages in the partial of 2025 (from January to December 22), in real terms (IGP-DI November/25), since 2019, at BRL 135.66 and BRL 130.09 per 60-kg bag, respectively, downing 1.9% and 2.9% against 2024.

In Brazil, the good pace of the 2024/25 harvesting confirmed the record production of 171.48 million tons. The crop failure registered in Rio Grande do Sul was compensated by the high productivity in other states, which increased both the domestic availability and liquidity in the spot market. Therefore, Brazil accounted for roughly 40% of the global production, estimated at 427.15 million tons by the USDA.

The United States harvested 119.04 million tons, upping 5% compared to the season before, while Argentina produced 51.1 million tons, +6%.

As for the demand, China imported 108 million tons, for a decrease of 3.5% in relation to the crop before, but this was compensated by the increase in other countries, such as the European Union, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand and others. As a whole, global soy trades reached 184.8 million tons in the 2024/25 season, moving up 3.9%, and Brazil accounted for 55.8% of world exports.

Brazilian exports amounted 107.24 million tons from January to December 19, for an increase of 8.53% compared to the volume registered in the entire year of 2024.

 

New grain quota suggests Russia on track to meet export target

• New quota suggests Russia on track to meet grain export target
• Russia plans to export 53-55 million tons of grain
• Russian grain exports are down from record in 2023/24
• Egypt is largest buyer of Russian wheat

Russia said on Wednesday it has set its grain-export quota, which protects the domestic market, at an expected 20 million metric tons for the second half of the marketing season, which runs from February 15 to June 30, 2026.

Taking into account volumes already exported, the new figures suggest Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, is on track to meet its target of between 53 million and 55 million tons of grain in the current marketing season.

“The decision will make it possible to maintain an optimal balance between the domestic grain market and exports. It was made taking into account forecast indicators of grain production and consumption in the Russian market,” the government said.

Russia allows quota-free exports in the first part of the marketing season from July to February. Quotas then kick in for the rest of the season and are distributed among exporters on the basis of their performance.

The new quota will apply to wheat, barley, corn and meslin. The government banned exports of rye in the second part of the season. Last year, the quota was set at 10.6 million tons and applied only to wheat and meslin.

Analysts at rail carrier Rusagrotrans estimated wheat exports in the first part of the season from July to December to be 25.5 million tons, down from a record 29.1 million a year earlier.

Russia exported 53 million tons of grain in the 2024/25 season, including 44 million tons of wheat.

Rusagrotrans said that Egypt, which imported 4.8 million tons of wheat in the current season, remains Russia’s largest customer, followed by Turkey, Iran, Bangladesh and Libya.

Russian grain exports have slowed sharply in the last two seasons from a record 70 million tons in 2023-2024, undermining President Vladimir Putin’s goal of increasing agricultural exports by 50% by 2030.

 

Better than expected late season weather raises Argentina wheat production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 24.7 [24.1–25.3] MILLION TONS, UP 17% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina wheat production is increased by 17% to 24.7 [24.1–25.3] million tons, supported by better‑than‑expected late season weather, healthy soil moisture conditions during the prime growth period, and rapid harvest progress. In December’s WASDE (released on 09 December) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 24 million tons, up from its previous estimate of 22 million tons in November. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 27.1 and 27.7 million tons, respectively. Harvest is advancing across all growing regions and is finishing on schedule in many northern areas. National completion stands at 76% according to the Ministry of Agriculture, and 73.3% according to Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires, ahead of last year’s 72%. Forecasts call for predominantly dry conditions through the end of the month (aside from some far‑northern areas), which should support timely harvest completion with minimal disruption.

 

Brazil’s BNDES Approves BRL2b For Rumo’s Railway in Mato Grosso

Brazil’s national development bank BNDES approved 2 billion reais ($359 million) in support for Rumo to complete the first phase of the Mato Grosso State Railway (FMT), according to a bank’s statement.

• Section connects Rondonopolis city and the BR-070 terminal in Dom Aquino city, spanning 162 km
  • New terminal will have the capacity to handle up to 10 million tons of grain per year
  • Construction of the first section is expected to be completed in the 2H26, according to BNDES
• BNDES will support the project through the subscription of local notes, in the full issuance amount of 2 billion reais, with bank itself coordinating the issuance

 

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 1.3% Y/y in November: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.33 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 0.9% in November from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 6.1% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 22% y/y

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 6.6% Y/y in November

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.26b pounds in Nov., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 8.8% y/y to 2.02b pounds
• Nov. cattle slaughter totaled 2.27m head, a 11.4% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 32 pounds from last year to 1,457 pounds
• Pork production down 4.4% y/y to 2.23b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 5.4% y/y to 10,259m head
  • Avg live weight was 292 pounds vs 289 pounds a year ago

 

 

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