Written Commentary
CORN
CH is near 4.40. This week, CH failed to push above resistance near 4.50 which triggered increase profit taking. USDA report is Jan 12. Private estimates of US 25/26 corn carryout are near 2,320 mil bu vs USDA 2,029. Final US feed/residual is est closer to 5,925 mil bu vs USDA 6,100. US export commit os near 1,929 mil bu vs 1,497 ly. Exports are est at 3,115 mil bu vs 2,858 last year. Ethanol use is est near 5,600 mil bu vs 5.436 ly. Assuming normal 2026 global weather, Nearby corn futures should drop below 4.00.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.47.This week, SH failed to push above resistance near 10.80 which triggered increase profit taking. Private estimates of US 25/26 soybean carryout is near 400 mil bu vs USDA 290. US export commit is near 974 mil bu vs 1,453 ly. Final US exports are est closer to 1,500 vs USDA 1,635. US soybean crush could be a record 2,575 mil bu vs 2,445 ly. Trade will be watching South America weather. South half of Argentina is dry. No rain is forecast for next 10 days. Brazil will see normal rains. Assuming normal 2026 global weather, Nearby soybean futures should drop below 10.00.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.07. This week, WH failed to push above resistance near 5.20 which triggered increase profit taking. KWH is near 5.15 MWZ is near 5.75.Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout closer to 880 mil bu vs USDA 901 due to higher exports. US wheat export commit is near 731 mil bu vs 616 ly. Trade est US 2026 wheat acres at 44.0 mil vs 45.3 this past year. 26/27 carryout is estimate near 844 mil bu due to lower crop offset by lower exports. Assuming normal 2026 global weather, Nearby Chicago wheat futures should drop below 5.00.
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