Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from $.02 to $.06 lower with new crop futures leading the declines. Early weakness saw spot Mch-26 dip to a fresh 5 month low. Next support is the contract low at $4.10. Near term export demand should remain strong however look for increased competition from Argentina as their harvest approaches. The market will need to find a price level that keeps US demand strong while also trying to restrict additional 2nd crop acres in Brazil. Speculative traders sold over 50k contracts yesterday stretching their short position back out to 58k contracts. O.I. rose 44k contracts on the price plunge. EU corn imports as of Jan. 11th at 8.9 mmt are down 19% YOY. Despite US ending stocks jumping nearly 200 mil. bu. and stocks/use ratio at a 6 year high of 13.6% the USDA raised the Ave. Farm price $.10 to $4.10 bu. Looking back over the past 20 years that would appear a bit high. Stocks/use among major global exporters rose to 10.5% in January, up from 9.7% and also a 6 year high.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.09-$.10, meal was off $6-$7 while oil prices surged nearly $.01 lb. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. Mch-26 beans established a fresh 3 month low by ¼ cent. Next support is the Aug-25 low at $10.17. Mch-26 meal plunged to a 2 ½ month low with not much support until the CL near $282. Mch-26 oil closed very close to its 100 day MA while carving out a new monthly high. Bean oil benefited from higher energy prices and perhaps speculation the Trump Admin. will develop a more favorable stance on biofuels to improve demand while helping support the US farm economy. Spot board crush margins jumped another $.05 ½ to $1.66 bu., the highest in 5 months, while bean oil PV surged to a 3 month high at 46.7%. The USDA announced flash sales of 168k mt (6 mil. bu.) to China and 152.4k mt (5.6 mil. bu.) to Mexcio. Total Chinese purchases are believed to be between 10-11 mmt, nearing the 12 mmt total. Sinograin successfully auctioned off 1.1 mmt of soybean as they continue to free up storage for US imports. Stocks/use ratio among major global exporters rose to 19.3%, up from 18.7% in Dec-25 and pretty much where it has been the past 6 years. With US ending stocks rising 60 mil. bu. to 350 mil. the stocks/use ratio rose to 8.2%, up from 7.4% YA. The Ave. Farm price was cut to $.30 bu. to $10.20, in line with 20 year history. EU soybean imports as of Jan. 11th at 6.6 mmt are down 14% from YA. Soybean meal imports 9.6 mmt are down 10%. Record US soybean yields and higher than expected stocks combined with favorable SA weather will work to limit the upside price potential in the near term.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.01 higher in MIAX to $.07 lower in KC futures. Spreads firmed CGO while weaker in KC. Mch-26 CGO appears to have slipped back into its $5.00-$5.25 range. Mch-26 KC pulled back after being unable to trade back above its 50 and 100 MA’s. The market seemed to take the higher than expected global production and stocks data in stride. Strong sales to end 2025 prompted IKAR to raise their Russian wheat export forecast 2.4 mmt for the 25/26 MY to 46.5 mmt. The USDA held their forecast unchanged yesterday at 44 mmt. EU soft wheat exports at 11.6 mmt are down 2% from YA. Jordan passed on purchasing wheat in their recent 120k mt tender. China imported 620k mt of wheat Australia and Argentina combined in Dec-25. Stocks/use ratio among global exporters jumped to 18%, matching the highest level in the past decade.
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