Global Ag News For Jan 14.2026

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA December US soybean crush estimated at 224.809 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely rose in December to the second-highest level on record, while soyoil stocks swelled to the highest mark since May 2024, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Thursday.

NOPA members, who represent more than 99% of all U.S. soybean processing capacity, were estimated to have crushed 224.809 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If that crush estimate is realized, the total would be 4.1% above the November crush of 216.041 million bushels and up 8.8% from the December 2024 crush of 206.604 million bushels. It would also be the second-largest crush for any month on record, behind only the October 2025 level of 227.647 million bushels.

Expanded U.S. crush capacity has swelled processing rates in recent months after some processors built new plants and others expanded existing ones to meet rising vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers. Plants also have ramped up crush rates after a bumper U.S. harvest last fall.

Crush estimates for December ranged from 216.644 million to 230.000 million bushels, with a median of 224.860 million bushels.

The report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Thursday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of December 31 were projected at 1.686 billion pounds, based on estimates from seven analysts.

The total, if realized, would be up 11.4% from stocks totaling 1.513 billion pounds at the end of November and 36.4% higher than year-earlier stocks of 1.236 billion pounds.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.575 billion to 1.848 billion pounds, with a median of 1.650 billion pounds.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 11 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 23; Soybeans down 18 3/4; Soymeal down $11.40; Soyoil up 1.85.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/2; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $7.10; Soyoil up 2.92.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 25 yuan; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil down 18; Palm oil down 40; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 24.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.59%) at 4040.

There were changes in registrations (-52 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 563 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 13 were: SRW Wheat up 6,477 contracts, HRW Wheat down 823, Corn up 36,635, Soybeans up 8,255, Soymeal up 6,090, Soyoil up 2,005.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 14 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the West and Southern Plains, while the Midwest/Northern Plains stays cold over the next 15 days. The Northwest, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest will see above-normal precipitation, with drier conditions elsewhere across the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The Pampas will stay cooler with below-normal rainfall across the corn and soybean belts, while Central Brazil faces wet weather and cooler temperatures, with flood risks limited to the Southeast.
• EUROPE: Central Europe will see above-normal temperatures over the next 15 days. Wet spells are expected in Spain, France, and the U.K., while Eastern Europe and Germany remain dry.
• ASIA: Southeast and East Asia are expected to experience mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 6–15 days, with mixed conditions across northern and southern India. Dry weather will dominate Asia, except for brief wet spells in Central China/North India.
• AFRICA: Wet spells may affect cocoa harvesting in southern West Africa, while flood risks remain limited to the corn belts of South Africa.
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates an active phase (6-7), which is expected to support increased weather activity across South America over the next 15 days.

 

COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE U.S. LATE THIS WEEK, THOUGH THE END OF THE MONTH COULD TREND MILDER AGAIN

• Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate
• Crops impacted: Winter Wheat
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens
• Forecast confidence: High through 10 days with a warm-to-cold transition, low after that due to split support among model guidance and teleconnections on the prospects for continuing cold risks or a warming trend.
• Model Change (from previous update): Colder trend for mid-January.

 

Brazil: A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend with widespread showers and will continue over south-central areas with needed rain the next couple of days. Rainfall coverage is increasing across the rest of central Brazil this week as well, which is beneficial for filling soybeans. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress.

Argentina: Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front will bring some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday and another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations, but are more likely to occur over the north yet again. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

Midwest: Several clippers will move through this week and next with variable temperatures and limited showers. We may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through by the end of next week.

 

The player sheet for 1/13 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 8,500 soymeal, and buyers of 10,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 320,404 metric tons of U.S. soybeans, with 168,000 tons for shipment to China and 152,404 tons to Mexico – both for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. bought an estimated 197,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 207,000 tons on Tuesday, European traders said.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought around 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. The grain can be sourced from optional origins.
• SOYMEAL SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said.
• SOYMEAL SALE: South Korean import group the Korea Feed Association (KFA) on Tuesday purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal from an international tender, and expected it to be sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China, European traders said.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without an international tender being issued.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The tender sought up to 210,000 tons in three consignments of up to 70,000 tons. But traders said they believed no purchases were made of the other two 70,000 ton consignments sought.
• CORN TENDER: South Korean group Cargill Agri Purina has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Tuesday. It can be sourced from South America or South Africa only.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korean importer the Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender on Tuesday for up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 14.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 210,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 15.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 9 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.105m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.126m bbl vs 23.652m a week ago

 

US CROP EXPORTS: Soybeans to China and Mexico

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announces the following export sales activity on its website:

Two sales announced:

• 168,000 tons of soybeans to China for 2025-26 marketing year
• 152,404 tons of soybeans to Mexico for 2025-26

 

Brazil’s soy exports to hit record high for January, grains exporting group says

Brazilian soybean exports are projected to hit nearly four million tons in January, a record for the period, grains exporting group Anec forecast on Tuesday.

Anec said traders in Brazil will export an estimated 3.73 million tons of the oilseed this month, about 1.3 million tons more than estimated last week, even though farmers have just begun harvesting their 2026 crop.

It cited revised shipment schedules in its decision to raise the projection for January, adding that adjustments to ship line-up data is normal throughout a given month. Most of Brazil’s soy is sent to China, but this year U.S. competition will dent demand for the Brazilian product.

Anec chief Sergio Mendes told Reuters in an interview last week that rains had hampered Brazilian soy shipments in December. He explained that part of the volume scheduled to be shipped last month was expected to leave local ports in January.

Brazil, the world’s largest soy producer and exporter, shipped 2.85 million tons of soybeans in January 2024, the highest volume on record for the month, according to official trade data. Brazil’s soy shipments totaled 1.07 million tons in January 2025.

Abiove, the oilseed crushers lobby, estimated last November that Brazil would end last year with almost seven million tons of carryover soy stocks, part of which could be exported before the new crop is ready.

Brazilian farmers had harvested only 0.6% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of last Thursday.

Anec also boosted Brazil’s corn export forecast for January to 3.27 million tons, up from the 2.85 million tons forecast in the previous week.

 

China December Preliminary Agricultural Trade Data

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• China Dec. Soybean Imports 8.044m Tons
  • Soybean imports YTD rose 6.5% y/y to 111.833m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in Dec. 667,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 3.2% y/y to 6.936m tons
• Rubber imports in Dec. 953,000 tons
  • Rubber imports YTD rose 16.7% y/y to 8.525m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in Dec. 418,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 8.7% y/y to 6.087m tons
• Fertilizer exports in Dec. 3.413m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 44% y/y to 46.272m tons

 

China’s 2025 soybean imports hit record, fuelled by S. American purchases

• China’s 2025 soybean imports hit record on strong S. American buys
• China largely shunned U.S. soybeans in 2025 amid high tariffs
• Nearly 10 mln T bought as U.S. soybean purchases resumed after October truce

China imported a record volume of soybeans in 2025, as buyers sharply increased purchases from South America amid fears of supply shortfalls if a trade war with Washington persisted.

The world’s biggest buyer of the oilseed imported 111.83 million metric tons in 2025, an increase of 6.5% from a year earlier, according to customs data released on Wednesday.

“Concentrated shipments from major producers, including Brazil and Argentina, drove a sharp rise in imports in the first half, helping lift annual totals to a record high,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

That resulted from heightened uncertainty over imports after the China-U.S. trade war escalated in the second and third quarters, prompting Chinese buyers to bring forward large-scale purchases of South American soybeans, she added.

December arrivals rose 1.3% from a year earlier to 8.04 million tons, Reuters calculations based on customs data show.

 

Indonesia Delays Ambitious Biofuel Plan, Curbing Palm Oil Demand

Indonesia signaled an ambitious target to boost the level of biodiesel blended in its fuel to 50% won’t occur this year, dampening palm oil demand prospects in the world’s biggest producer.

The government decided to maintain the current mandatory blending ratio of 40% until the year-end, said Deputy Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Yuliot Tanjung in Jakarta on Wednesday. Policymakers need more time to build infrastructure and calculate the costs of transitioning to the higher mandate, known as B50, he said after a meeting with other officials to discuss palm oil-related policies.

The remarks come after the government on Tuesday signaled that it might delay the plan depending on price dynamics, pressuring palm oil futures in Kuala Lumpur. Regulators initially planned to roll out B50 in the second half of this year as part of President Prabowo Subianto’s push for energy self-sufficiency.

Benchmark palm oil futures fell 0.5% to close at 4,043 ringgit per ton in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday, after declining 0.6% a day earlier.

The state is conducting B50 tests in equipment including vehicles, trains and agricultural machinery this year, said Eniya Listiani Dewi, director general for new and renewable energy at the energy ministry. The decision to implement the higher blending rate will hinge on the results, she said.

The implementation will also depend on price differences between gasoil and biodiesel, said Airlangga Hartarto, coordinating minister for economic affairs.

To help fund the biofuel program, the government will also increase the levy for outbound crude palm oil shipments to 12.5%, from 10%, starting March, said Eddy Abdurrachman, executive director of the Indonesian Plantation Fund, which oversees levy collection and distribution.

Exporters must also pay a separate export tax to the nation’s customs department.

 

Russia Jan. Wheat Exports Set to Rise to 3m-3.4m Tons: SovEcon

Russia’s January wheat exports are expected to reach 3 to 3.4m tons, according to agriculture consultancy SovEcon, up from 2.3m tons a year earlier and a 3.1m tons average this season, boosted by competitive pricing compared to EU producers.

• The final estimate for December wheat exports is 4.2m tons up from 3.4m tons a year earlier
  • NOTE: SovEcon expects exports for the 2025-26 season to reach 44.6m tons, higher than the USDA’s estimate of 44m tons
• SovEcon doesn’t rule out another upward revision of its export estimates after the release of official Russian harvest figures that were significantly higher than expected
  • “However, we don’t expect a major increase. A 20m tons export quota is set to take effect in mid-February. Given that constraint, it will be difficult to translate larger domestic supply into a proportionally higher exports:” Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Looking forward, Russian winter wheat crop, harvested next summer, faces “severe cold risk,” with temperatures in the Central region expected to plummet to -27C this week. The cold snap follows an unusually warm period and rainfall in some areas, leading to ice crust forming in fields. This can deprive plants of oxygen: SovEcon
• NOTE: Russia held talks with the country’s major grain traders in September to boost exports after a sluggish start to the season

 

China to Offer Canola Relief for Easing EV Curbs at Carney Visit

China will propose easing some restrictions on Canadian rapeseed products during a visit to the country by Prime Minister Mark Carney, provided his government relaxes tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

The Chinese authorities plan to discuss the proposal with Carney on his official visit this week, according to people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Reducing levies on other industrial products from China will be part of the talks, they added.

China’s commerce ministry did not immediately reply to a fax seeking comment.

Futures for the Canadian oilseed rose as much as 2.8% on Tuesday, the most in three weeks. Competitor soybean oil gained as much as 2.7%, the most since September.

Canadian government officials, speaking during a background briefing on Monday, said they hope to make progress on easing trade frictions but played down the prospect of a quick deal on EV tariffs.

Vehicles and auto parts are among Canada’s most valuable exports, but most of its automotive production goes to the US. President Donald Trump’s administration has put pressure on both Mexico and Canada to erect barriers to Chinese products ahead of a review of the countries’ trade accord.

Carney’s China trip is the first by a Canadian prime minister in more than eight years and follows an escalation of trade tensions in 2024, when the government of former leader Justin Trudeau slapped a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, along with duties on aluminum and steel. Those measures were taken to protect domestic manufacturers and align with US levies.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met Chinese President Xi Jinping in October.

Beijing hit back with tariffs early last year on products of Canadian rapeseed, known locally as canola, then added more levies in August. China was Canada’s second-biggest export destination for canola and canola products — usually crushed for animal feed — but the duties effectively ended the trade, valued at C$4.9 billion ($3.5 billion) in 2024.

Read More: Carney to Visit China to Talk Trade With Xi as US Tariffs Bite

While China has signaled its openness to a thaw and farmers on the Canadian side want agricultural tariffs lifted, any pullback on EV curbs would meet with domestic resistance in Canada, where automakers and provincial leaders like Ontario Premier Doug Ford have voiced their opposition.

The prospect of improved trade relations has already filtered into the rapeseed market, with meal futures in China falling more than 4% since the middle of last week.

Carney is expected to land in Beijing on Wednesday and meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. The Canadian leader’s office said there will be discussions on trade, energy, agriculture and international security. Officials said Carney is expected to sign a “number of documents,” though they declined to provide details due to ongoing talks with Chinese representatives.

 

French farmers stage new Paris protest in effort to halt Mercosur deal

• Prime Minister Lecornu announces measures, farmers demand more concessions
• Farmers dump potatoes outside French parliament in protest
• Mercosur deal approval intensifies pressure on French government
• French farmers criticize Mercosur deal for ignoring EU Parliament’s input

French farmers, who drove tractors into Paris on Tuesday, plan to stay overnight in the city centre to protest against an EU-Mercosur trade deal they say threatens local agriculture by creating unfair competition with cheaper South American imports.

Farmers in France, the European Union’s largest agricultural producer, and other member states have been protesting for months over the EU-Mercosur deal and numerous local grievances.

The demonstration on Tuesday was organised by the FNSEA, which is one of France’s largest farm unions. A separate farmers’ union, the Coordination Rurale, had brought tractors below the Eiffel Tower and the Arc de Triomphe last Thursday in a surprise demonstration.

To assuage the protesters, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced a series of measures that would only kick in when and if a budget is approved.

He did not convince the farmers, who decided to spend the night in the city to force more concessions. “The progress made appears insufficient. They have decided to remain until new negotiations can begin with the government,” Damien Greffin, vice president of the FNSEA and a farmer from the Paris region.

Lecornu said on X he asked the agriculture minister to prepare an “emergency bill” targeting water, wolf attacks on herds and production issues, many of which were highlighted by the FNSEA.

The government will also propose fiscal measures, including enhanced precautionary savings and support for farmers to better cope with economic shocks.

The measures would only become a reality when the divided parliament eventually passes its delayed 2026 budget bill, he emphasized.

The Paris police estimated around 350 tractors were at Tuesday’s demonstration.

Tractors had converged again by the Arc de Triomphe and continued to the French parliament building, where some farmers dumped several metric tons of potatoes.

“The Mercosur agreement was approved even though the European Parliament hasn’t had its say. This is going to lead to imports of foreign goods that we are perfectly able to produce in France and that don’t respect standards which are imposed on French farming,” said Greffin.

He said that beside the protest in front of the French parliament, farmers were also planning to demonstrate at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on January 20.

The Mercosur deal’s approval by most EU states on Friday, despite France’s rejection, has intensified pressure on the government from farmers and opposition parties, some of which have filed no-confidence motions.

“Farming is going through a crisis like we’ve never seen and we need to make ourselves heard,” said Guillaume Lefort, a crop farmer from Seine-et-Marne in the Paris region, holding an FNSEA flag in front of the lower house of parliament building.

 

 

 

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