Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade overnight as prices across the Ag space recover from this week USDA induced selloff. Yesterday’s trade saw heavy oil/meal spreading with bean oil the beneficiary of speculative buying on hopes the Trump Admin. will develop a more favorable stance on biofuels to improve demand and support the US farm economy. Board crush margins jumped $.05 ½ to $1.66 bu., the highest in 5 months, while bean oil PV surged to a 3 month high at 46.7%. Perhaps a ruling today from the SCOTUS on the Trump Admin use of tariffs ? SA weather remains favorable. Spot crude oil is up $.90 a barrel back above $62 for the 1st time since Sept-25. The US $$ is slightly lower. US stock indices are lower.
Corn:
Mch-26 is up $.04 trading above yesterday’s high near $4.24. The market for now seems to have run out of sellers below $4.20. Next support the contract low at $4.10. EIA data later this AM expected to show ethanol production increased to 325 mil. gallons LW, up from 323 the previous week which is just above the pace needed to reach USDA usage forecast of 5.6 bil. bu.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are up $.06 at $10.45 while holding within yesterday’s range. Also inside trade for Mch-26 holding at 25 points higher. Meal has bounced $1 with Mch-26 near $293. China imported 8.0414 mmt of beans in Dec-25 up 1.2% from Dec-24. Total imports in 2025 at 111.8 mmt were up 6.5%. Total purchases from the US for the 25/26 MY are believed to be between 10-11 mmt, nearing the 12 mmt total. Dec-25 NOPA crush at 11 AM CST tomorrow is expected to reach nearly 225 mil. bu. vs. 206.6 from Dec-24 and if realized would be the 2nd highest figure ever reported. Bean oil stocks are expected to rise 11.4% from Nov-25 to 1.686 bil. lbs. Look for higher SA production forecasts in futures USDA reports making the reduced USDA export forecast of 1.575 bil. a challenge. Look for spot futures to pull back to the $10-$10.25 range.
Wheat:
Prices are $.01-$.02 higher across the 3 classes. Inside trade for Mch-26 CGO holding near $5.12. KC Mch-26 near $5.20. IKAR this week raised their Russian wheat export forecast 2.4 mmt for the 25/26 MY to 46.5 mmt. The USDA held their forecast unchanged yesterday at 44 mmt. SovEcon expects Russia to export 3-3.4 mmt of wheat in Jan-26, up from 2.3 mmt in Jan-25. They raised their 25/26 MY export forecast to 44.6 mmt. Week 2 of the outlook has better prospects for rain in the US plains.
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