ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar was weaker early Wednesday but remained inside the consolidation range of the past four weeks. Europe’s largest sugar producer Suedzucker cut its third-quarter losses from the sugar business to 47 million euros from 95 million euros last year but warned EU sugar markets are likely to remain depressed. They cited sugar production in the EU and worldwide being above consumption, which is a common theme that is limiting the market’s upside despite expectations that global sugar production will decline next year in response to the low prices. Earlier this week, CovrigAnalytics projected the global sugar surplus for 2025/ 26at 4.7 million metric tons, up 600,000 tons from their previous forecast. Tuesday’s UNICA report did not offer many changes from recent trends, with Brazil’s Center South cumulative sugar production holding close to a year ago and ahead of the five-year average. Sugar production during the first half of December totaled 254,000 tons, down from 356,000 a year ago and 724,000 for the second half of November. Cumulative sugar production has reached 40.158 million tons versus 39.815 million at this point last year, an increase of 0.86%. Sugar’s share of the cane crush was 31.5% during the first half of December versus 35.7% for the same period last year.
COCOA
March Cocoa was near unchanged early Wednesday, following a break to its lowest level since November 25 on Tuesday, the day the market put in a 13-month low. The markers is under pressure this week as traders apparently fear bearish fourth-quarter grind data due to be released on Thursday. Reuters reported that dealers expect European grind to show a decline of 0.3% to 2% from a year ago and the Asian grind figures to fall 10% to 11.7%. Europe’s third-quarter grind was 4.8% below a year ago, Asia’s was down 17%, and North America’s was up 3.2%. Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli’s sales volumes declined around 6% year-on-year in 2025. An improvement in Ivory Coast port arrivals this week has added to the negative bias, and there has been some disappointment that fund buying did not make more of an impact with the inclusion of the NY cocoa contract in the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
COFFEE
March Coffee has had a mild recovery for this week after last week’s selloff. President Trump’s warning on Monday that any country that does business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on trade with the US raised new concerns about Brazil, which is a big supplier of agricultural goods to Iran. However, one would expect that neither Brazil nor the Trump administration would want to revisit the steep tariffs on Brazilian coffee that sent coffee prices sharply higher this past fall. Reuters reported that a source at the U.S. National Coffee Association said there was no clarity yet about Trump’s announcement. The industry is waiting for the eventual publication of the Executive Order
COTTON
March Cotton was holding firm early Wednesday and was close to taking out Monday’s that that came in the wake of a bullish supply/demand report that lowered US production by 350,000 bales. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) expects India’s 2025/26 cotton imports, which began on October 1, to jump 22% from the previous year to a record 5 million (Indian) bales, the equivalent of 4.08 million US bales. (Indian bales weigh 170 kg or 392 pounds versus 480-pound US bales). Imports rose 158% year on year to a record 3.1 million bales in the December quarter after the government allowed duty-free imports. In 2024/25, India’s imports reached a record 4.1 million bales. CAI raised its estimate for the current season’s cotton crop to 31.7 million bales, up from the previous forecast of 30.95 million bales, and they forecast cotton consumption to decline 2.9% to 30.5 million bales in 2025/26, amid weak overseas demand for Indian fabric and apparel, especially in the wake of the increases in US tariffs to as high as 50%. Up until recently, about 29% of Indian textile imports went to the US. According to the weekly USDA export sales reports, US shipped 453,225 (US) bales to India in 2024/25 (August-July), up from 89,878 the previous year. So far in 2025/26, cumulative export sales have reached 307,074 bales, up from 303,361 for the same period last year and 31,925 at this point in the 2023/24 season.
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