Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
March Crude Oil extended this week’s rally early Wednesday on concerns about Iran and what would happened to global oil supply should the current regime fall. Tehran warned US allies in the Middle East it would strike US bases on their soil if Washington attacked Iran. There were reports yesterday that a US attack was coming and that the Trump Administration was weighing its options. Some personnel were advised to leave a U.S. military base in Qatar. President Trump on Tuesday urged Iranians to keep protesting and said help was on the way, without specifying what that meant. Protests so far have not spread to the Iran’s main oil-producing areas. The market is ignoring a bearish API report from late Tuesday.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, the products were higher early Wednesday on concerns about Iran. Reuters reported bearish API results, but that did not subdue the rally. API gasoline stocks were +8.23 million versus +3.6 million expected, and distillates were +4.34 million versus +500,000 expected.
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas was lower early Wednesday following a three day recovery off an oversold conditions, a colder turn in the weather, and perhaps some improving demand conditions from Europe and Turkey. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast still show below normal temperatures in the key heating demand regions of the US. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.3 bcfd this week to 151.5 bcfd next week. However, traders question whether this will be enough to alter an ample supply situation.
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