Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mostly lower trade across the Ag space overnight with little net change coming off the 3 day MLK weekend. While SA weather remains largely favorable a sharp drop in the US $$$ has provided support for commodity prices. Pres. Trump has threatened European countries that oppose the US complete and total purchase of Greenland with escalating tariffs. These tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1st and increase to 25% by June 1st. March-26 crude oil is up $.55 per barrel. Spot gold and silver have both spiked into new all-time highs. US equity markets brace for a sharply lower open with futures showing major indices off 1.4%-1.9%. Friday’s CFTC data showed MM’s were large sellers of corn and soybean in the week ended Tues. Jan. 13th while modest buyers in wheat and soy products. A major winter storm threatens to dump a healthy mix of rain, ice and snow across the southern Midwest and delta region late this week and next weekend. Mostly dry across the north. Brutal cold across the northern plains and Midwest late this week and upcoming weekend. Below normal reading to hold thru month end.
Corn:
Mch-26 is down $.02 ½ near $4.22 while holding within Friday’s range. Since last Monday’s USDA reports selling seems to dry up below $4.20 while buyers back away above $4.25. Record ethanol production last week raises hopes for higher domestic usage. Exports remain on pace to meet or exceed the USDA est. of 3.2 bil. bu. with additional flash sales announced on Friday to Japan and unknown. AgRural place Brazilian corn plantings at 1%.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are off $.02 near $10.56, meal is mixed and little changed while Mch-26 oil is up 20 points near 52.80. Safras & Mercado raised their Brazilian production forecast slightly to 179.3 mmt, just above the USDA’s 179 mmt est. Safras pegs Brazilian exports at only 105 mmt in 2026, down 3% from 2025. They see crush at 60 mmt, in line with the USDA. AgRural estimates Brazil’s harvest has reached 2% as of Jan. 15th, slightly above the YA pace. Wire services are reporting China has reached their pledge to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans with the first shipments expected to arrive this week.
Wheat:
Prices are $.03-$.04 lower across the 3 classes. CGO Mch-26 is down $.04 at $5.14 holding within Friday’s range while holding within a $5.00-$5.25 range. KC Mch-26 is back below its 50 and 100 day MA’s down $.02 ½ near $5.25. Over the 3 day weekend Algeria bought 600k mt of milling wheat between $253-$254/mt CF for Feb/March shipment. Much is believed to have been sourced from Argentina. Saudi Arabia reportedly bought 900k met of wheat between $258-$265/mt CF for April/May shipment. The grain is likely all sourced from the Black Sea region. SovEcon reports Russian FOB prices ended last week between $226-$228/mt up from $225 the previous week.
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