ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa extended it its selloff early Tuesday and fell below the previous counteract low from October 2024. Last week’s disappointing European grind numbers convinced traders that the record prices weakened demand. This ramifications could be long lasting due to candy makers having developed new products that use less chocolate. News that Ivory Coast exporters’ association GEPEX reported on Monday that Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind rose 3.6% year-on-year in December to 64,787 metric tons was not enough to stem the selling. Cumulative grind for the 2025/26 season, which began October 1, reached 165,558 tons, down 9.2% from the same period in 2024/25. GEPEX data covers six of the largest grinding companies, including Barry Callebaut Olam, and Cargill. Ivory Coast has total grinding capacity of around 750,000 tons, and it vies with the Netherlands as the largest grinder in the world. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 37,000 metric tons for the week ending January 18, down from 54,000 the previous week but up from 34,000 a year prior. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began have reached 1.162 million tons, down from 1.191 million a year ago and below the five-year average at 1.231 million. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said mostly below-average rains combined with sunny intervals last week supported the development of the upcoming mid-crop. Word Weather Inc. said cocoa production areas of Ghana, Nigeria and Ivory Coast will receive greater than usual rainfall in the south this week. There has been no threatening weather in recent weeks and no reports of a strong Harmattan wind. Some of the wet conditions in recent weeks may have slowed harvesting and the drying of cocoa pods. There may be some lingering concerns about disease due to the moisture.
COTTON
March Cotton was higher early Tuesday despite weakness in the US stock market. The dollar collapsed in the wake of the latest tariff threats and uncertainty over the Greenland issue, and perhaps that lent support to cotton on ideas it improves the competitiveness of US exports on the global market. There may have also been some carryover strength from the strong export sales report last week, which were over 300,000 bales for the third time this season. The trade may be awaiting the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, though the consensus seems to be that the Trump Administration will figure out a way to maintain the tariffs in some form or another. World Weather Inc. says Texas and the southeast US may see some badly needed moisture later this week from a winter storm. As of January 6, an area representing about 80% of US cotton production was experiencing drought.
SUGAR
March Sugar was near unchanged early Tuesday, holding most of Friday’s gains. World Weather Inc. said central Florida citrus and southern Florida sugarcane areas were not impacted by frost or freezes this morning and that Louisiana sugarcane experienced frost and light freezes today with very little permanent damage. China customs data released on Sunday showed the nation imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, up 47.9% from December 2024. Total imports for 2025 were up 13.1%.
COFFEE
March Coffee fell to its lowest level since January early Tuesday, possibly under pressure from global economic uncertainty stemming from the latest tariff threats against Europe over the Greenland issue. Brazil growing areas continue to see beneficial rains. Cecafe reported that Brazil exported 2.86 million bags of green coffee in December, down 18.4% from December 2024, with 2.63 million bags of Arabica (down 10%) and 222,147 bags of robusta (-61%). Total green coffee exports for 2025 reached 36.30 million bags, down 21.8% from 2024, with arabica at 32.31 million (-12.8%) and robusta at Robusta 3.99 million bags (-57.3%). Total coffee exports (including instant coffee) fell to 40 million bags in 2025 from a record of 50.6 million in 2024, but average prices rose by almost 57% to $389.17 per bag, which brought the total sales value to a record $15.6 billion. The US fell to second place behind Germany as the top destination for Brazilian coffee because of the tariffs. Cecafe looks for stronger exports in 2026, based on harvest expectations.
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