Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
All green on the screen as prices firmed across the Ag space overnight. Soybeans are the leader to the upside as spot Mch-26 looks to form a 4th consecutive session of higher highs and higher lows. While specific news is lacking I suspect strength is being fueled by comments from the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. USTR Greer stated the US/China may hold another round of trade negotiations ahead of a planned meeting between Pres. Trump and Chinese leader Xi in April US Treasury Sec. Bessent recently stated China has fulfilled their obligation to purchase 12 mmt of US soybean for 25/26 MY and both countries look forward to them purchasing at least 25 mmt for the upcoming season. Dry in Southern Argentina while otherwise SA weather remains largely favorable. A major winter storm is forecast to dump a healthy mix of rain, ice and snow across the southern Midwest and Delta later this week. Mostly dry across the north. Brutal cold across the northern plains and Midwest late this week and upcoming weekend. Winter kill may threaten areas of wheat that miss out on snow. Spot crude oil is near unchanged. New highs for gold. The US $$ is slightly lower. US stock indices have turned slightly lower.
Corn:
Mch-26 is up $.03 near $4.27 while challenging the high from last Friday. Expanded E-15 blending was omitted from a spending bill aimed to avert another US Govt. shutdown at month’s end. EIA ethanol production delayed until tomorrow.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are up $.10 at $10.63, next resistance is the Jan. high at $10.71 ¼. Mch-26 meal is up $3.40 at $295. Mch-26 oil is up 30 points near 52.85. Pres. Trump will be speaking at the WEF in Switzerland at 7:30 CST. The threat of tariffs on EU nations for not supporting US control of Greenland will be closely monitored by commodity and financial markets. Heavy rains across N. Brazil will slow harvest efforts.
Wheat:
Prices are $.03-$.04 higher across the 3 classes. CGO Mch-26 is up $.04 near $5.14. KC Mch-26 is back above its 50 and 100 day MA’s at $5.27 up $.04. Russian attacks continue to limit Ukrainian grain exports. 25/26 wheat shipments thru mid-Jan at 8.2 mmt are down 20% YOY.
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