Global Ag News For Jan 20.2026

TOP HEADLINES

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 10 1/2; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 11 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 14; Soybeans up 16; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil up 4.31.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 25 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 84; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 60.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 60 ringgit (+1.47%) at 4154.

There were changes in registrations (-11 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 503 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 20 were: SRW Wheat up 2,598 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,117, Corn down 1,533, Soybeans up 3,147, Soymeal up 5,810, Soyoil down 271.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 21 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Active weather will affect the southern U.S. late in the week, bringing expanding snow to Mid-South crop regions
• SOUTH AMERICA: The official LSEG Monthly Outlook for South America suggests favorable cool/wet pattern across most of Brazil in February
• BLACK SEA: Volga and Central Districts will experience extreme cold this week (-25 to -30°C), but adequate snow cover should protect winter wheat from damage
• EUROPE: A trend to near-normal temperatures and precipitation is the most likely scenario for winter wheat areas in Central E.U. throughout early February
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Trans-Atlantic Dipole (TAD) is likely to become negative in February-March, which usually supports cool and wet conditions across Brazil

 

DRY WEATHER COULD INCREASE ACROSS ARGENTINA IN FEBRUARY, WITH EXPANDING RAINS LIKELY FOR BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Brazil could see an area of localized heat risks in the Southeast region as part of an otherwise cool and wet outlook for February
• Argentina could experience a cool and dry month ahead, which will moderately elevate downside risks to corn/soybeans
• Paraguay corn/soybeans are expected to experience cool temperatures with near normal rainfall in a favorable outlook

 

Brazil: A front moved through southern areas over the weekend and will be enhancing showers over central Brazil this week. That is favorable for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, however, and will not be as favorable.

Argentina: A front exited to the north over the weekend. And while a few showers fell across the south as well, it has been very dry there for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall over the fertile southern half of Argentina’s growing areas, which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage and amounts are forecast to be low.

Northern Plains: A pair of clippers will move through with some snow and somewhat colder air the next couple of days. But a significant arctic cold front will follow it starting on Thursday. The cold may break some records across the Dakotas on Friday. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

Central/Southern Plains: Some cold air settled in briefly on Saturday and Monday, but significant damage to winter wheat may have been tough to do. However, a significant arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which may set some records over the weekend. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

Midwest: Cold air is being reinforced by clippers over the next couple of days, which will also bring some areas of light snow. A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday night, leading to some potential record cold for Friday and Saturday. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River are falling this week and continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some showers will move across the region this week and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

 

The player sheet for 1/20 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, and buyers of 2,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 190,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s state grains agency, the General Food Security Authority, said it bought an estimated 907,000 metric tons of hard wheat in an international tender on Monday confirming earlier reports from traders, traders said. Traders said they expected the wheat to be largely sourced from the Black Sea region, especially Romania and Bulgaria, with some also likely to come from Russia.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Monday with Argentine wheat expected to be a major source of supply, European traders said. Initial estimates of the purchase volume were mostly around 600,000 tons although some estimates went as high as 720,000 tons.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The yellow corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 190.97 U.S. cents a bushel cost and freight (c&f) included over the July Chicago corn contract, they said.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 27. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan bought 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 21.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.484m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.337m of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 15, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 1,337k tons vs 1,593k the previous wk, 989k a yr ago
• Wheat: 393k tons vs 318k the previous wk, 262k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,484k tons vs 1,504k the previous wk, 1,542k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 15

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 15 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 612k tons of the 1.34m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 6.9%

December placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.53m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates range from -12% to -4.6% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Jan. 1 seen falling by 3.2% y/y to 11.45m head
• December placements seen down 6.9% y/y
• Marketings seen rising 1.7% y/y

 

Greer Floats More US-China Trade Talks Before Trump’s April Trip

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer floated another potential round of trade negotiations with China ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned meeting in April with his counterpart Xi Jinping.

“There’s a chance that we might meet before then and try to have some kind of further agreement on things we can trade between us that are non-sensitive,” Greer told reporters on Tuesday in Davos, Switzerland, where he was attending the annual World Economic Forum.

He spoke after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held an informal meeting on Monday in Davos with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Bessent and He have been the primary negotiators for the world’s two largest economies during a period of heightened trade tensions that saw tariff rates on each nation’s goods climb to well above 100%.

Their meeting in Geneva last May kicked off a series of talks that saw follow-on sessions in London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur, resulting in a truce under which Washington and Beijing lowered tariffs and export restrictions.

Greer suggested the next round could move past highly sensitive issues such as technology competition and China’s supply of the rare earth magnets that are vital to global industrial supply chains.

“Let’s not get bogged down in export controls and investment and all these really sensitive areas that bear on high tech and national security — but let’s talk about basic goods and services,” Greer said.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 3.79 Million Tons In January – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.79 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 3.73 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.82 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.82 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.45 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 3.27 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Palm Oil Seen Between 4,000-4,300 Ringgit/Ton in February: MPOC

Palm oil is expected to remain range-bound and trade between 4,000 ringgit and 4,300 ringgit a ton in February, with prices seen underpinned by seasonal declines in production and stockpiles, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• With Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel narrative temporarily sidelined, the market’s attention has now shifted back to palm’s production, export performance and inventory levels, the council said in a statement on Wednesday
  • A sustained price rally in palm oil and other vegetable oils would require a progressive rollout of Indonesia’s B45 mandate, a recovery in crude oil prices, or clarity on US biofuel policy that boosts soy oil demand, it said
• NOTE: Palm oil traded 0.9% higher at 4,132 ringgit as of the midday break in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday
• Global demand for palm oil is expected to strengthen and may potentially surpass soybean oil in 1Q, as the latter widens its premium
• Still, despite palm’s clear price advantage, Indian imports have yet to fully recover; a weaker rupee against the ringgit could be the likely reason
  • This setback should be temporary as India will “ultimately need to import palm oil regardless of currency movements”
  • Indonesia’s CPO export levy hike to 12.5% from March is also expected to boost Malaysia’s market share in the top importing nation
• Optimism is building that US domestic soy oil consumption will increase after clarity on US biofuel policy in March
  • This will support crushing activity ahead of a likely bumper Brazilian soy harvest between March and May
• Meanwhile, February’s shorter trading month, combined with multiple holidays and the start of the Muslim fasting period, may weigh on harvesting productivity and constrain near-term supply

 

Kazakhstan boosts newly harvested grain exports 18.6%

Kazakhstan has exported 5.1 million tonnes of grain since the start of the current agricultural year in September 2025, up 18.6% from 4.3 million tonnes in the same period last year, the Agriculture Ministry said.

Exports to Uzbekistan rose 44% to 2.3 million tonnes, shipments to Kyrgyzstan increased 76% to 150,000 tonnes, and deliveries to Afghanistan climbed 71.6% to 350,000 tonnes.

Kazakhstan plans to export 13 million tonnes of newly harvested grain in the current agricultural year, broadly in line with last season’s level.

Kazakhstan’s grain harvest increased 2% in 2025 to 27 million tonnes, with yields averaging 1.7 tonnes per hectare, compared with 26.5 million tonnes and 1.6 tonnes per hectare in 2024.

 

Russia Attacks Won’t Hurt Ukraine Exports in Long Term: Kuleba

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s ports and ships are unlikely to spur a decline in export volumes in the long term, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba says.

• “For now, we do not see a systemic decline in export volumes. The sea corridor continues to operate, ships call at ports, and exports of Ukrainian products, including agricultural products, continue,” Kuleba says
• “Direct attacks on ships (in January) certainly create additional risks. In the short term, there may be occasional delays, changes in ship arrival schedules, or redistribution of flows between routes”
• “If attacks on ships intensify, we have options. Exports will be redistributed between sea, river, and land corridors. Logistics will be combined. We do not rely on a single route”
  • “We are monitoring the security situation and will make operational decisions if necessary.”

 

Ice crust and deep frosts could damage some Ukrainian winter wheat and rapeseed crops

Ice crust and extremely cold weather over the past two weeks could damage winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops in Ukraine’s southern and eastern areas as well as part of its central regions, farmers’ union UAC said on Tuesday.

Frosts in temperatures down to minus 18 degrees Celsius followed prolonged freezing rain, forming ice fields over crops.

“A layer of ice several centimetres thick over several weeks will not do any good for wheat or rapeseed,” UAC said in a weekly report. “There is a risk that the weather could damage the crops.”

A clearer picture will emerge in about two weeks, the union added.

Ukraine traditionally produces winter grains sown in autumn and harvested in the summer of the following year.

Winter grains typically have higher yields than spring grains, but weather risks are also quite high.

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has said that farmers had sown about 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat and 586,100 hectares of winter barley for the 2026 harvest, similar acreage to a year earlier.

 

Morocco Grain Harvest Seen 82% Higher in 2026 After Strong Rains

Grains output projected at 8m tons this year vs 4.4m tons in 2025, planning and statistics agency HCP says in report.

• “Abundant and well-distributed rainfall recorded from the end of November onwards” bodes well for “above-average” farming output in 2026
• GDP projected to grow 5% in 2026 versus 4.7% in 2025, partly as result
• Agricultural commodity prices are expected to fall 2% in 2026 after stagnating in 2025, primarily on abundant supply
• Trade deficit projected to reach 21.1% of GDP in 2026 vs 21.3% of GDP in 2025, mainly by higher agricultural and food exports
• Car exports “are projected to have declined sharply in 2025” due to the impact of transition to cleaner sources of energy
  • Outlook in 2026 depends  on “ability to adapt to the new demands of global markets”
• Phosphates and derivatives exports expected to “maintain” upward trajectory in 2026 driven by strong global demand, restrictions on Chinese exports and sanctions on Russian phosphate, which limit global supply
• Budget deficit expected to narrow in 2026 to 3.2% of GDP vs 3.6% in 2025
  • This “should ease the burden of public debt” and reduce public debt to 77.5% of GDP in 2026 vs 78.9% in 2025

 

New Vicentin Owners Start Argentina Debt Payments After Takeover

Grassi SA, a Rosario grains brokerage that recently became the new owner of distressed Argentine soy exporter Vicentin SAIC, said the company has made the first payments in its debt restructuring that was approved by a bankruptcy judge.

• The payments are a “significant milestone” for the company, which has been re-named Nueva Vicentin Argentina, it said in a joint statement with Grassi
• NOTE: While a Louis Dreyfus venture has opposed Grassi’s deal to restructure $1.3 billion of unsecured Vicentin debt and its takeover, a request to stay a transfer of Vicentin’s shares to Grassi during appeal was denied, allowing Grassi to pursue its plans

 

Brazil’s Petrobras backs first biorefinery

Petrobras plans to invest BRL6bn ($1.11bn) to convert its Riograndense refinery in southern Brazil into the country’s first biorefinery, company president Magda Chambriard said, speaking at a contract-signing event attended by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

“We are planning to begin the transformation of Riograndense into Brazil’s first biorefinery in the second half of the year, which will produce 100% bio-based products. This transformation will require BRL6bn. It’s an expansion of Petrobras’ refining capacity,” Chambriard said, O Globo reported.

The refinery, located in Rio Grande, in Rio Grande do Sul state, is operated by a partnership between Petrobras, Ultra and Braskem.

Since early last year, the partners have tested the co-processing of biomass with fossil inputs. In 2023, the unit produced fuels and industrial inputs using only vegetable oil.

With capacity of about 17,000 barrels per day, the plant produces petrol, diesel, LPG and naphtha, and is smaller than larger Petrobras refineries such as Reduc in Rio de Janeiro state.

At the same event, Chambriard announced contracts for five gas carriers, 18 barges and 18 tugboats, totalling BRL2.8bn in investment.

“We have orders in Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Bahia, and now in Amazonas,” she said, adding that the programme would reduce reliance on chartering and improve LPG logistics.

She also said the new gas carriers are “20% more efficient and emit 30% less greenhouse gases” and “will be able to operate in electrified ports.”

 

China to resume poultry imports from Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state

China has decided to reopen its market to chicken meat exports from Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, ending a suspension imposed in 2024, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry and industry group ABPA said on Tuesday.

China is one of Brazil’s main chicken export destinations.

The embargo was initially imposed in July 2024 after a case of Newcastle Disease was confirmed at a commercial farm in the state.

Rio Grande do Sul accounts for about 13% of Brazil’s total chicken exports. Brazil itself is the world’s largest exporter of chicken meat.

ABPA said the decision benefits eight chicken plants in Rio Grande do Sul, including three operated by MBRF MBRF3.SA and two by JBS JBS.N.

Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said in a statement that it had received a notification from China lifting the restrictions previously imposed on poultry exports from Rio Grande do Sul.

The reopening process involved proof of control and eradication measures aligned with international animal health protocols, ABPA said.

News outlet Globo Rural reported the move earlier in the day, citing Brazilian officials.

 

COLD RISKS SPREAD ACROSS PLAINS WINTER WHEAT BELTS, WHILE WET SPELLS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH

Weather Anomaly Severity: High

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day  timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 15

Model Change (from previous update): Rising cold risk in the Plains late January

Significant weather anomalies and crop  impact:

Cold risks (3–13 °F below normal) are expected across North and South Plains winter wheat regions over the next 10 days, posing potential stress to developing crops.

In the 11-15-day outlook, above normal temperatures (6-12 °F) are expected in the Plains/Northwest, while below-normal temperatures (3-8 °F) will persist in the East.

Wet spells (5-60 mm above normal) are restricted to Southern Plains wheat crop belts, while the rest of the U.S. will experience dry conditions

Weather discussion: A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase will continue through the next 2 weeks. This pattern supports wet weather conditions over the southern U.S.

 

 

 

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