ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar continues to consolidate, supported by ideas of an oversold status and a possible shift to more ethanol production but limited by a large global surplus. The Indian government has allowed exports of 1.5 million metric tons this year, but only minimal sales have been reported so far. Wednesday’s UNICA report showed Brazil Center-South cane crush during the second half of December was higher than a year prior, but sugar production was lower, as processors continued to focus more of their efforts on ethanol and less on sugar. The crushing season is winding down, so the effects of the switchover are not particularly large. The annual share is still running ahead of a year ago. Cumulative sugar production is also running slightly ahead.
COFFEE
March Coffee was steady early Thursday after finding support on Wednesday above the December low. Reuters reports that Vietnam coffee prices firmed this week as supplies stayed tight even at the peak of harvest, with farmers holding back sales. This may have lent support to London robusta prices, which reached their highest level since December 15 and ran into technical resistance at the 50-day moving average. Brazil arabica growing areas have been receiving adequate enough rainfall this year to support the upcoming crop, which will be harvested in May. This is also the on-year on the arabica crop’s biennial cycle.
COCOA
March Cocoa prices steadied early Thursday after falling precipitously for the previous two sessions. The market was pressured this week on lower than expected fourth quarter grind data from late last week, poor sales data from chocolate manufacturers, and reports of slow producer sales in west Africa. Chocolate maker Barry Callebaut reported a 9.9% drop in first-quarter (2025/26) sales volumes versus expectations for a 9.4% drop. Ivory Coast said on Tuesday its cocoa regulator would buy 100,000 metric tons of surplus cocoa. Growers are reportedly eager to sell and take advantage of the high farmgate price established by Ivory Coast’s regulator, the CCC, this year. The high price has meant that cocoa that would have ordinarily been diverted to Liberia and Ghana has stayed in the country and that some production from those countries has been transported to Ivory Coast. Buyers have been holding back waiting for lower prices. There are reports of a bottleneck at the ports. As of Sunday, cumulative arrivals at Ivory Coast ports were running 2.4% behind a year ago and 6% behind the five-year average. World Weather Inc. expects showers and thunderstorms from southern Ivory Coast to southeastern Nigeria during the next week. Most of the precipitation will continue concentrated near the coast, but sufficient amounts are likely in Ivory Coast and Ghana to support some early flowering near the coast. Normally, early season rainfall would begin in mid-February.
COTTON
March Cotton traded in a wide range early Thursday. It pushed below the 50-day moving average for a time, a line that has been providing support this week, but it also pushed above Wednesday’s high. The weekly export sales report will be released on Friday due to the US holiday this past Monday. Last week’s report showed net showed net sales of 339,724 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 10,120 for 2026/27 for a total of 349,844 for the week ending January 8. This was only the third time this marketing year that sales were above 300,000 bales. The stock market recovered on Wednesday after Trump softened his tone about taking Greenland and reported that his administration has formed a “framework of a future deal,” and it extended those gains overnight. This may have lent some support to cotton, which benefits from a strong economy. The trade may have been awaiting a US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, but that does not appear immanent.
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