Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mostly higher trade across the Ag space overnight. Mch-26 soybeans look for a 5th consecutive session of higher highs and higher lows. News immediately after the grain markets closed yesterday that the Trump Admin will not impose 10% tariffs on European countries after striking a framework deal with NATO countries with respect to Greenland led to a sharp rebound on Wall Street. This AM the US $$$ is slightly lower while holding within yesterday’s range. Spot crude oil is $1.10 lower. US stock indices are higher. Hot/dry conditions across central and southern Argentina over the next week is concerning. Rains will be needed by early Feb-26 to ease growing crop stress. Conditions in Brazil remain mostly favorable however heavy rains in the north may slow harvest activities. In the US a major winter storm is expected to start in the southern plains tomorrow and move across the Southern Midwest and Delta this weekend leaving a trail of heavy rain, ice and snow. Mostly dry across the north. Brutal cold across the northern plains and Midwest thru the weekend. Winter kill may threaten areas of wheat that miss out on snow.
Corn:
Mch-26 is up $.01 at $4.23 holding within yesterday’s range. A bill is moving thru the US House that would allow the year round sales of E-15. Today’s EIA report is expected to show last week’s ethanol production ranged between 323–349 mil. gallons. While down from the previous week’s record production of 352 mil., the range is above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. of 5.60 bil. bu. Export sales are delayed until tomorrow. Cattle on feed on Fri. is expected to come in at 97% of YA, with placements at only 93% for YA.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are up $.03 ½ at $10.68 holding just below the Jan-26 high at $10.71 ¼. Mch-26 meal is up $3.00 at $294.50. Higher trade in Mch-26 oil stalled just below the Sept-25 high at 54.40 before turning slightly lower. Look for the BAGE to show lower crop ratings in Argentina later today. With US Treasury Sec. Bessent declaring China has completed their purchase of 12 mmt of US soybeans prices will be sensitive to the pace of shipments and any evidence of new crop purchases. Still no confirmation from China they have agreed to purchase 25 mmt over the next 3 crop cycles. Still waiting for SCOTUS to decide on the Trump Admin. use of tariffs and final RVO’s and SRE reallocation from the EPA.
Wheat:
Prices are $.02-$.03 higher across the 3 classes with KC and CGO holding within yesterday’s range. CGO Mch-26 holding in $5.00-$5.25 range. KC Mch-26 consolidating near 50/100 day MA’s at $5.26. This week’s winter storm will help ease drought in the SE plains. hub
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