Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices eased, pausing a three-day rally as easing tensions over Greenland and a hotter-than-expected GDP revision for the third quarter lowered rate cut bets. President Trump said he had reached a deal with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte over Greenland and would not be imposing tariffs on several European allies. Details of the framework are not yet known, but markets took a sigh of breath from the deescalation, as focus shifts back to economic data and the outlook for the Fed. US GDP growth was revised higher to an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment, although consumer spending was revised slightly downward. Also on the docket for today will be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index. The data could help shape interest rate expectations from the Fed after this morning’s hot GDP reading quelled some bets for easing this year. Markets are currently only priced for one rate cut in 2026 after starting out the year priced for two; markets are priced for a September rate cut, July was previously fully priced in but on top of recent data, the case for holding policy has become stronger.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court signaled skepticism toward Trump’s unprecedented bid to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook in a case with the central bank’s independence at stake. The Trump administration accused her of falsely claiming two properties as primary residences to obtain favorable mortgage terms. Cook denies the allegations. The justices signaled overwhelming concern about how Trump’s attempt to remove Cook played out. But they seemed far less certain about what to do about it. Elsewhere, Trump on Wednesday indicated he was close to choosing the new chair of the Fed, adding he liked the idea of keeping White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett in his current post.
Silver: Silver futures are up 1.3% to 93.89.
Platinum: Platinum is 0.7% higher at $2,513.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices stayed rangebound after new data showed that US COMEX warehouse inventories rose above 500,000 metric tons for the first time amid lingering tariff concerns. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was little changed at $12,811. Meanwhile, the COMEX copper contract is down 0.75% to $5.75, as arbitrage opportunities against LME copper fade. LME copper has flipped above COMEX, sending the metal back to LME warehouses and lifting stocks. The market is easing from tight to more balanced conditions, reducing the urgency behind the rally. Still, copper should remain supported by ongoing supply disruptions and intense demand in 2026, which will likely put the metal into a supply deficit close to 300,000 tons.
In China, the Yangshan premium, a key indicator of Chinese copper consumption, fell to $26 a ton on Tuesday, the lowest since late July, 2024. Record high prices are likely starting to weigh on demand by squeezing corporate profit margins for large metal consumers. Prices have also felt pressure after the US opted to defer tariffs on critical minerals, while China stepped up its crackdown on high-frequency trading, which plays a significant role in commodity markets.
Zinc: Zinc gained 0.61%.
Aluminum: Aluminum added 0.30%.
Tin: Tin drifted 0.81% lower. Recent talk of a government clampdown on illegal tin mining in Indonesia have spurred supply worries. Tin has also gained support from market bets of rapid growth and demand for tin on the back of the artificial intelligence boom. However, Tom Langston at the International Tin Association said that the supply-demand metrics have not shifted, noting that fund interest for LME tin was at record levels.
Lead: Lead gained 0.35%.
Nickel: Nickel ticked 0.05% higher.
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