Global Ag News For Feb 3.2026

TOP HEADLINES

USDA to release flies near US-Mexico border to fight screwworm pest

US to shift dispersal of sterile flies that fight pest in Mexico
Screwworm has advanced north toward US-Mexico border
Sterile flies will be dyed to glow under UV light

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will disperse glow-in-the dark, sterile flies in Mexico, closer to the U.S. border, and in southern Texas, as officials race to keep flesh-eating New World screwworm pests from spreading in Mexico, the agency said.

Screwworms are parasitic flies whose females lay eggs in wounds on warm-blooded animals, often livestock. Once the eggs hatch, hundreds of screwworm larvae use their sharp mouths to burrow through living flesh, eventually killing their host if left untreated.

The USDA has halted U.S. imports of Mexican livestock to keep out the pest, worsening a cattle shortage that has pushed beef prices to record highs for consumers.

The agency also produces 100 million sterile flies per week at a facility in Panama and disperses them in Mexico to prevent wild screwworm flies from reproducing. Now, the agency says, it is going to take the same flies further north near the border.

The shift came after the USDA has reported 20 screwworm infestations since December 26 in animals in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, which borders southern Texas.

“Given that we need to protect Texas and the U.S., I think it’s definitely something that had to be done,” Sonja Swiger, an entomologist at Texas A&M University, said on Monday.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 1.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 0.95.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4.1% in SRW, up 3.8% in HRW, down 0.9% in HRS; Corn is down 3.2%; Soybeans up 3.5%; Soymeal down 0.8%; Soyoil up 13.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 33 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 68; Palm oil down 18; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is down 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 14 ringgit (-0.33%) at 4215.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 2 were: SRW Wheat up 5,993 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,821, Corn up 12,836, Soybeans down 225, Soymeal up 4,199, Soyoil down 8,194.

 

ONGOING RAIN AND FLOOD RISKS IN CROP AREAS OF SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

• Weather anomaly severity: High (precipitation)
• Crops impacted: Corn, Soybean, Coffee
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op for precipitation, EC Op for Temperature
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens for 6-10 day precipitation, EC Ens for Temperature; AIFS for 11-15 day
• Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 7; Low from day 8 to 15
• Forecast change: Drier for 5-10 day timeframe across South Brazil and Argentina

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday, especially north. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday. 

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest – West: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures variable through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest – East: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered snow Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

 

The player sheet for 2/2 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 106,350 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender late last week, European traders said on Monday. The purchase involved various wheat types bought in two consignments for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast.
• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 3, with offers having to remain valid until February 4.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 207,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 3.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.136m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.311m of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 29, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,136k tons vs 1,547k the previous wk, 1,261k a yr ago
• Wheat: 327k tons vs 379k the previous wk, 253k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,311k tons vs 1,336k the previous wk, 1,140k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 29

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 29 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 740k tons of the 1.31m total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat

 

US Soybean Crushings at 229.9M Bushels in December: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 5.6% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 3.3% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 29.1% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 488.3M Bu in December

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 1.84% higher than in December 2024
• In total, mills consumed 534m bu of corn in December, a 1.3% increase over last year
• DDGS production rose to 1.947m tons

 

US Winter Wheat Crop Conditions by State for Feb. 1: USDA

The following shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of Feb. 1, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

• Kansas conditions moved up a percentage point to 61% good/excellent in the week ending Feb. 1
• Oklahoma conditions lowered to 23% good/excellent from 31%

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Harvest 10% Done as of Jan. 29: Agrural

Compares with 5% a week earlier and 9% a year before, consultancy firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Winter corn seeding is at 12% in the Center-South region, compared to 5% a week before and 9% in the same period last year
• 2025/26 corn harvest is 10% complete in the Center-South, versus 5% a week earlier and 14% a year before
  • The pace was helped by the drier weather of the last few days, AgRural says

 

StoneX, Celeres hike forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop

StoneX and agribusiness consultancy Celeres on Monday raised their outlooks for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop, citing higher yields than previously expected in the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

STONEX

• StoneX pegged soybean output this season at 181.62 million metric tons, up from 177.61 million tons previously.
• That would represent a 7.6% year-on-year increase.
• “As the harvest progresses, the outlook remains quite positive, despite some areas showing greater variability due to weather irregularities,” analyst Ana Luiza Lodi said.
• StoneX also estimated Brazil’s 2025/26 first corn crop at 26.59 million tons, up from 25.98 million tons previously.
• The second corn crop was forecast to hit 106.37 million tons, above its earlier estimate of 105.82 million tons.

CELERES

• Celeres said Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to reach a record 181.3 million metric tons, hiking its forecast from a previous 177.2 million tons.
• Output would exceed the 2024/25 season by 5%, Celeres said.
• “With the start of the 2025/26 harvest, some regions have surprised positively in terms of yields,” the consultancy said.
• “Thanks to favorable weather during much of the crop cycle, southern Brazil stands out in the current season,” it added.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices drop in PR and SC, but are firm in RS and SP

Cepea, 2 – Wheat quotations presented distinct trends in January among states surveyed by Cepea, influenced by different conditions of supply and demand. In Santa Catarina and in Paraná, values of trades between companies moved down. However, in Rio Grande do Sul and in São Paulo, values were firm.

In January, the monthly average of wheat prices in Santa Catarina was BRL 1,158.92 per ton, downing 1.6% against December/25 and 18.3% in relation to that in January/25, in real terms (IGP-DI – Dec/25). In Paraná, the average was BRL 1,178.66/ton, 0.4% down in one month and -15.2% in one year.

In Rio Grande do Sul, prices averaged BRL 1.050.89/ton in January, for an increase of 1.4% in one month, but moving down 16.1% in one year. As for São Paulo, the average was BRL 1,257.25/ton, upping 0.4% compared to December, but dropping 19.9% against that in the same month last year.

Between January 23 and 30, in the wholesale market, prices decreased 0.64% in Paraná and 0.02% in Santa Catarina. In Rio Grande do Sul and in São Paulo, on the other hand, quotations rose 0.65% and 1.09%. Prices paid to wheat farmers moved up 0.2% in Rio Grande do Sul, but dropped 0.15% in SC and 1.87% in Paraná.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between January 19 and 23, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 234.67/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.3355, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,252.10/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,182.07/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 219.47/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,170.99/ton – against BRL 1,050.89/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

Up to the fourth week of January, Brazilian imports of wheat registered 419.73 thousand tons per day, against 717.02 thousand tons per day one year ago, downing 41.46%.

 

China Books Brazilian Distillers Grains in Boon to Corn Mills

Brazil is readying its first cargoes of distillers grains for shipments into China, as the South American country’s growing corn ethanol industry seeks new markets for the animal feed ingredient.

Producer FS is preparing to ship in the coming days 3,000 metric tons of the product, also known as DDG, to China via a container ship sailing out of Brazil’s top port of Santos, the company confirmed in a note. Another bulk vessel is scheduled to load with Brazilian DDG at the southern port of Imbituba, according to data by agency Alphamar.

Those deals mark the first trades after Beijing agreed to open its market to Brazil’s suppliers of the feed ingredient in mid-2025. A by-product of corn ethanol, DDG output is growing in the country following the rapid expansion of plants that make biofuel from the cereal.

The move is also a sign of the deepening ties between Brazil and China, which is already the main destination of the South American country’s food products including soybeans and beef. In November, China cleared as many as five Brazilian mills for DDG exports, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture.

 

India’s January palm oil imports hit four-month high as buyers cut soyoil purchases

India’s palm oil imports surged 51% in January to a four-month high, as the tropical oil’s discount to rival soyoil prompted refiners to ramp up purchases while cutting soyoil imports to a 19-month low, according to five dealers.

Higher palm oil imports by India, the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oils, could help reduce inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures, while pressuring U.S. soyoil futures.

Palm oil imports jumped to 766,000 metric tons last month – the highest since October 2025 – from 507,204 metric tons in December, according to dealer estimates.

Meanwhile, soyoil imports slumped 45% to 280,000 tons, the lowest since June 2024, and sunflower oil imports fell 23% to 269,000 tons, according to the estimates.

India’s total edible oil imports in January fell 3.5% from a month earlier to 1.32 million tons due to lower imports of soyoil and sunflower oil, the estimates showed.

The estimates exclude duty-free shipments that arrived via land borders from Nepal, the dealers said.

India imported an average of about 632,000 tons of palm oil each month during the marketing year that ended in October 2025, said the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. The group is set to publish its January import data by mid-February.

Palm oil has been trading at a discount of more than $100 per tonne to soyoil, encouraging Indian buyers to step up purchases and scale back soyoil buying, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader GGN Research at Rajkot, Gujarat.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Palm oil imports are expected to rise further in February, with soyoil and sunflower oil imports remaining under pressure, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm.

 

Malaysia Jan. Palm Oil Exports Rise to 1.376m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose to 1.376m tons in January from 1.197m tons in December, according to AmSpec Agri.

• Palm oil exports rose 14.89% m/m

 

Argentina hikes biofuel prices for domestic market

Argentina’s government increased biofuel prices for mandatory blending for consumption in the domestic market, according to two resolutions published on Monday in the Official Gazette.

A major producer of biofuels, particularly biodiesel, the South American country regularly raises prices for the domestic market.

According to the resolutions, the Energy Secretariat set a minimum price of 1,000.868 pesos per liter (about $0.69) for sugarcane-based bioethanol for February, up from a previous price of 976.457 pesos per liter.

Prices for corn-based bioethanol were set at 917.323 pesos per liter, up from 894.949 pesos, while the price of biodiesel for mandatory blending with diesel was hiked to 1,842,796 pesos per ton (about $1,273.5), from 1,797,881 pesos previously.

The new prices take effect from the date of publication and will remain in effect “until the publication of new prices to replace them,” the statements said.

 

Russian wheat export prices rise third week in a row, analysts see no damage from frosts yet

Russian wheat export prices rose for the third week in a row amid a strengthening rouble and poor weather at ports while analysts do not yet see any damage to crops from a cold spell that hit many areas of the country.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the beginning of March was $231.0 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 from a week earlier, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

IKAR cut its estimate of January wheat exports tо 2.5 million tons from the previously expected less than 3.0 million tons.

Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $229-$231 a ton FOB, compared with $228-$230 at the end of the previous week.

“Russian FOB is supported by a strong rouble, higher domestic prices and rising MATIF (Euronext wheat),” Sovecon said in a weekly report.

The agency reduced its forecast for January wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 2.9 million tons.

The rail carrier Rusagrotrans estimated January wheat exports for the period ending 28 January at approximately 2.35 million tons, with a forecast for the whole month at 2.7 million tons.

Sovecon said last week it had raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million tons to 45.7 million tons, citing a strong pace of shipments and crop figures that had come in higher than expected.

Last week, state statistical agency Rosstat slightly reduced its preliminary crop estimate to 138.76 million tons of grain from 139.4 million tons one month ago, including 90.9 million tons of wheat, down from 91.4 million tons.

Analysts believe the new cold spell that has hit central Russia and the Volga region does not yet pose a risk to winter crops, as they are reliably covered by a thick layer of snow.

Rusagrotrans warned of the risk of ice crust formation following the expected warming in the south of the central district.

 

China Issues Guidelines to Boost Agriculture, Rural Development

China will stabilize grain and edible oil production and increase soybean capacity, according to Communist Party and State Council guidelines for boosting agriculture and rural development.

• Will strengthen regulation of hog production, increase consumption of dairy products
• Boost integration of AI and agriculture

 

ONGOING RAIN AND FLOOD RISKS IN CROP AREAS OF SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

• Weather anomaly severity: High (precipitation)
• Crops impacted: Corn, Soybean, Coffee
• Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op for precipitation, EC Op for Temperature
• Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens for 6-10 day precipitation, EC Ens for Temperature; AIFS for 11-15 day
• Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 7; Low from day 8 to 15
• Forecast change: Drier for 5-10 day timeframe across South Brazil and Argentina

 

 

 

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